Who wins the 2022 King George at Ascot based on previous trends?

Saturday's big race is the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes (3.35) and we have delved deep into the trends to see if history can help us determine the 2022 winner of this Group 1 prize.

Key races

The Hardwicke Stakes has been the best race to follow if you are looking for a King George winner. Harbinger (2010), Postponed (2015) and Highland Reel (2016) all used that race as a stepping stone back to Ascot.

Royal Ascot form has proven key in the last 12 years, with five of the last 12 winners having their last run at the royal meeting. With that in mind, last month's Hardwicke winner Broome has to be given a second glance.

Broome (Ryan Moore) wins the Hardwicke Stakes last monthCredit: Edward Whitaker

Ratings

The King George is Britain's premier middle-distance Group 1 and as such, it takes the best of the best to land the £708,875 prize.

Taghrooda was rated 116 when she landed the 2014 running and is the lowest-rated winner in the last 12 years, which tells you plenty about the calibre of horse required.

Seven of the last 12 winners were rated 121 or higher and if we are to focus on that drilled-down statistic then Westover, Emily Upjohn, Broome and Pyledriver all fall short.

Distance

Stepping up in trip for the King George is not a good move if history is to be believed. Ten of the last 12 winners of the race had run at least twice over the 1m4f distance, with all of them having at least one run at the trip.

The John and Thady Gosden-trained Emily Upjohn has run just once over 1m4f, and although this trend does not rule any horse out, she would have a question mark next to her name.

Class

It can be no surprise that ten of the last 12 winners of the King George had won a Group 1 prior to their success in the race. All 12 had won at least a Group 2 as well.

All six horses in the field have won at the top level, with Mishriff's three Group 1 wins making him the most successful horse in the race.

Odds

This race attracts the best that the middle-distance division has to offer and, as such, it has a superstar role of honour. As a consequence, favourites have an excellent record in the race.

The last six runnings have been won by the favourite or second favourite, with the biggest-priced winner in the last 12 being the German raider Danedream in 2012. With Torquator Tasso lurking in this year's field, that could be an interesting statistic.

Torquator Tasso (right): could he be another German winner?Credit: Edward Whitaker

Verdict

On trends, the horse to follow is Mishriff. He does miss out on the favourites' trend, but he fits all of the others and is the highest-rated in the line-up at 125.

He finished second to Adayar 12 months ago and was an unlucky loser of the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown on his last start. Clearly in great form, he could be the one to down the Classic generation.

bet365: 6-5 Westover, 15-8 Emily Upjohn, 7-2 Mishriff, 14 Torquator Tasso, 20 Broome, 25 Pyledriver

2022 King George offers

• Paddy Power are giving away free bets to new and existing customers, and all you need is an account. Sign up here.
• Sky Bet are offering new customers free bets when they sign up. You can get them, along with money-back specials and extra places, here.
• Betfair have lots of offers, extra places and money-back offers. Sign up for a new account here.
• To get a free bet from Ladbrokes today, simply sign up to a new account here.
• Don't have a Coral account? They have an offer for new customers here.
• bet365 have a new customer offer available. Sign up here.
• New William Hill customers can claim free bets here and benefit from their money-back offers here.
• 888 Sport have free bets for all new customers. Sign up here.
• If you're a new customer, Tote will give you a free bet. Sign up here to claim.

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