Who will win the 2021 Champion Stakes based on past trends?

The Qipco Champion Stakes takes place on Saturday with a top-class field lining up at Ascot (3.50). We've taken a look at the previous runnings and picked out the key factors to help predict this year's winner.

3.50 Ascot Saturday: Qipco Champion Stakes racecard and betting

Previous Champion Stakes runs

Mishriff will attempt to become only the second horse in the last ten years to be beaten in the race and land it the following year. Addeybb went down by three-quarters of a length to Magical in 2019 before reversing form with her last year, with Mishriff further back in eighth.

Mishriff will attempt to step up on his eighth place in last year's Champion StakesCredit: Edward Whitaker

Since the first running of the Champion Stakes in 1887, 13 horses have scored back-to-back successes. The list includes turf legends Brigadier Gerard (1971 and 1972), Triptych (1986 and 1987), Alborada (1998 and 1999) and most recently Cracksman (2017 and 2018). Addeybb will attempt to add his name to this illustrious list.

Age

Victory for Addeybb would make him the first seven-year-old to win the race since Bendigo in 1887. Last year he became only the second winner aged older than five since Bendigo (Pride was also six when she won for France in 2006). Eight-year-old Euchen Glen will bid to make history by becoming the oldest winner of the Champion Stakes.

The Classic generation have a poor recent record with only Almanzor (2016) and Cracksman (2017) winning in the past 12 runnings. Adayar, Dubai Honour, Sealiway, Mac Swiney, Bolshoi Ballet and Foxes Tales are the six three-year-olds in the ten-runner field.

Ground

British Champions Day's position in the calendar means soft going is often a likelihood and it often pays to have a good sense of which runners perform well on slower ground.

The weather between now and Saturday looks relatively dry but this will be another running of the Champion Stakes when those with soft-ground form may well come to the fore.

That is a negative for Bolshoi Ballet, whose best form has come on quicker surfaces.

Form

Cirrus Des Aigles (2011) and Fascinating Rock (2015) are the only winners in the last ten runnings to break their Group 1 maiden in the Ascot showpiece. Dubai Honour, Al Aasy, Euchen Glen and Foxes Tales are yet to strike at the highest level.

Nine of the last ten winners had finished in the first two on their most recent start, with the exception being Magical (2019), who finished fifth in the Arc.

Distance

Nine of the last ten winners had previously won over the Champions Stakes trip of 1m2f. The 2013 winner Farhh had been placed over the trip but his wins had been over 7f or a mile, including the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes.

Adayar, Al Aasy, Mac Swiney and Sealiway have yet to win over the trip.

Dubai Honour (striped cap) goes for a maiden Group 1 win having been supplemented at a cost of £75,000Credit: Edward Whitaker

Other factors

Eight of the last ten winners arrived after a break of 28 days or more. The proximity of the Arc to the Champion Stakes puts a question mark over those trying to back up just 13 days after a trip to Paris. In the last ten years only Magical (2019) has been successful at Ascot having run in the Arc, where she was fifth to Waldgeist. Adayar and Sealiway both ran behind Torquator Tasso this year.

The Group 2 Prix Dollar is run the day before the Arc. At Ascot's inaugural Champions Day, Cirrus Des Aigles overcame So You Think and Snow Fairy, having been beaten a short neck in the Prix Dollar a fortnight earlier. This year Dubai Honour, who has been supplemented for £75,000, will attempt the double having won at Longchamp by a length and a half.

Adayar: can he handle the quick turnaround from the Arc and the drop in trip?Credit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

Verdict

William Haggas holds a strong hand as he attempts to bring the Champion Stakes crown back to Somerville Lodge.

Addeybblooks to have plenty in his favour as he goes for back-to-back wins. He has a liking for soft ground and, with this race having been the long-term plan, has had a 105-day break since his last run. There is no sign age is catching up with him given his second to St Mark's Basilica in the Eclipse at Sandown, with Mishriff a neck behind in third.

Connections of Haggas's other runner Dubai Honour are confident of his chances and have backed that up with a £75,000 supplementary fee. The son of Pride Of Dubai has gone from strength to strength this season, stepping up from handicap company to land two Group 2 contests in France, both over 1m2f and with soft in the going description.

Read more on the Qipco British Champions Day:

2021 Qipco British Champions Day tips: why these horses can win at Ascot

Confirmed runners and riders for the QEII and Champion Stakes – plus a tip

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