Christmas tips: 'Odds of 20-1 look generous' - why this horse can win

There is a feast of festive action coming up and our experts have been assessing the entries. Here are seven horses to follow over the next week.

Hope You Do

NAF Handicap Hurdle (1.28), Wincanton, December 26

I've had this horse down as a winner in waiting for some time so, as it is Christmas, it would be nice if he finally delivers. His form in France worked out pretty well and after three mediocre runs last term he went into his second season with Philip Hobbs off a mark of just 104.

Horses can improve for a season and he looked in the process of doing just that when travelling extremely powerfully at Exeter on his handicap debut. However, he got it completely wrong two out and just couldn't recover before finishing third.

That experience should have brought him on significantly, while he makes obvious appeal given his mark has been left alone by the handicapper. His French win came on softer ground so further ease to conditions will only enhance his chances.
James Stevens, reporter

Farouk D'Alene

BoyleSports Faugheen Novice Chase (2.40), Limerick, December 26

This promising Gordon Elliott-trained youngster appeals for one of the most open Grade 1 events of the festive period.

A winner at this meeting last year when getting the better of Albert Bartlett hero Vanillier in a Grade 2 novice hurdle, Farouk D'Alene made a highly satisfactory chase debut at Navan earlier this month when defying a 341-day absence to score.

Farouk D'Alene: worth a wager at Limerick says Mark BoylanCredit: Caroline Norris (racingpost.com/photos)

Sure to sharpen up in all respects from that comeback success, he has every chance of improving to the level set in the Drinmore Novice Chase, and that should see him in the thick of things here.

It's been unusually mild and dry for this time of year in Ireland lately but the ground at Limerick still should be testing as usual, and that will really play to Farouk D'Alene's strengths.
Mark Boylan, reporter

Erne River

William Hill Pick Your Places Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (1.00), Wetherby, December 27

Trainer Nick Kent enjoyed a fantastic festive period last year courtesy of Lincolnshire National scorer Who's In The Box, 125-1 Wetherby winner Ballycallan Fame and Mick Maestro, who landed a race at Catterick that was shown on terrestrial television.

Who's In The Box bids for a repeat Market Rasen feature-race success on Sunday, but of more interest is Erne River, who starts out over fences at Wetherby the following day.

This six-year-old beat the now 147-rated chaser Minella Drama in a Dungarvan point-to-point in January last year and has won two of his three starts in novice hurdles for Kent.

There is a good chance he could be well treated off 127 and should go well off a nice weight.
Jack Haynes, reporter

Paint The Dream

Watch Racing Online Free With Coral Handicap Chase (1.05), Chepstow, December 27

Jumping has been a real asset of Paint The Dream and despite this being his 13th start over fences, I fancy that there is still improvement left under the hood.

His form last season was rock-solid, including a great third in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices' Chase at Sandown, and he built on that strong novice season by comfortably winning a course-and-distance handicap on his return.

That was an impressive performance and he ran better than the bare result at Cheltenham last time when he weakened quickly after the last. Back at Chepstow over a furlong shorter, he has a leading role to play, especially down in grade.
Owen Goulding, MyRacing

Eva's Oskar

Coral Welsh Grand National (2.50), Chepstow, December 27

Seven-year-old Eva's Oskar has won three of his five starts at the track – his two losses were in a bumper and a novice hurdle in which he was sent off 150-1 – and he has plenty of experience after seven runs over fences.

He stayed on strongly to win over 2m7½f on his reappearance, beating subsequent winners Jeremy Pass and Pats Fancy, and was then outpaced a long way out at Ascot but kept at it to finish just a length and a half behind Kapga De Lily, who has also won again since.

Tim Vaughan: trainer of Welsh National hope Eva's OskarCredit: Gareth Everett

Eva's Oskar went head to head with Corach Rambler last time at Cheltenham, where the more galloping track appeared to suit, and despite hitting two out and being carried across the track, he again rallied admirably.

Corach Rambler has since gone up 8lb and I think he could still be ahead of his mark, so although Eva's Oskar is 5lb wrong here on his future mark (135), I think he's worth chancing considering he's 33-1 and shapes as if he will improve for this step up in trip.
Maddy Playle, RPTV

Iwilldoit

Coral Welsh Grand National (2.50), Chepstow, December 27

Providing he makes the cut, Iwilldoit should have a huge chance of securing a biggest victory yet for in-form trainer Sam Thomas off a feather weight.

The eight-year-old absolutely walloped his opposition in the Welsh Grand National Trial at the beginning of the month, finishing 24 lengths clear of his rivals in the same contest Secret Reprieve won on his way to glory last season.

Iwilldoit has won two of his three starts over fences, while the opposition has been weakened by the absence of Ask Me Early with favourite Secret Reprieve having his first run in almost a year.
Sam Hendry, reporter

School Boy Hours

Paddy Power Chase (2.55), Leopardstown, December 27

This Noel Meade-trained novice's ability to run well fresh brings him firmly into the Paddy Power Chase picture off a mark of 133.

He finished a two-length second to Grade 1 winner Latest Exhibition off level weights on his 2020 seasonal return. In behind School Boy Hours that day was Run Wild Fred (now rated 159) and the 145-rated Longhouse Poet, who reopposes in the Paddy Power off 12lb worse terms.

Three miles on soft ground is spot-on for School Boy Hours, whose third behind Laurina and subsequent Gold Cup winner Minella Indo on his 2019 seasonal bow was his best run of that season too.

Mark Walsh has ridden him in all of his chases and it wouldn't surprise me if JP McManus's retained rider picked School Boy Hours from the owner's ten entries. Odds of 20-1 look generous.
Robbie Wilders, tipster

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