Is Desert Crown the Derby winner in waiting? We assess the Epsom favourite

Shergar, Shahrastani and Workforce are among five Derby winners for Sir Michael Stoute, who looks set to saddle the favourite for the Epsom Classic in Dante scorer Desert Crown. Here we assess the positives and one potentially significant negative to his chances and reveal an expert view on whether he is good value at 9-4.

The pros

Track

This might be expected to be a con but race experience around such a unique track like Epsom is certainly not a must judging by the nine British-trained winners of the Derby since 2000 as none of them had previously run at the track.

Four of those nine winners landed the Dante at York on the way to the Classic, a tick in the box for Desert Crown. Workforce, the most recent Derby hero for Stoute in 2010, finished second on the Knavesmire before going one better at Epsom.

Derby entries and betting

A backend two-year-old victory at Nottingham didn't harm the prospects of two more recent Derby winners with Golden Horn and Adayar, the latter winning the race named after the former Derby and Arc hero, scoring as juveniles at the East Midlands track – as Desert Crown did last November.

Trip

A question for the Derby contenders each year is will they stay the 1m4f trip? There is no knowing for certain until the big day but there is little to suggest Desert Crown will struggle on the stamina front.

The son of Nathaniel, a King Edward VII Stakes and King George winner over 1m4f, did his best work late in the Dante over 1m2½f and is a half-brother to winners over 1m3f and 1m4f.

There is a dry forecast in the lead-up to next weekend so ease underfoot is not expected to make it an even stiffer test. Even so, Desert Crown's debut win came on soft ground and he appears versatile regarding the surface.

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Ratings

Only three of the last ten Derby winners have surpassed Desert Crown's Racing Post Rating of 120 in the Dante prior to winning the Epsom highlight.

Golden Horn registered a figure of 123 when winning the same race at York, while the other two higher RPRs were recorded in the 2,000 Guineas courtesy of Newmarket Classic winner Camelot (121) and Guineas third Australia (122).

Golden Horn: won the Dante before Classic glory at EpsomCredit: Edward Whitaker

That gives a gauge to Desert Crown's ability . . . and remember he has had just the two starts!

Yard form

Strictly on strike-rates, Stoute's 14 per cent record this month – prior to Tuesday's racing – is below the 17 per cent for this year so far and the impressive 21 per cent for last year – his joint best effort since 2016.

However, Stoute's horses are performing perfectly well, with just two out of his last 16 runners in the past fortnight finishing outside the first four, including three winners and four seconds. There are no concerns on this score and Stoute, who has saddled five winners and eight other first-four finishers from 37 Derby runners, is the master at training his horses to peak for the big occasion.

The trials have been run - so who do our experts fancy for the 2022 Cazoo Derby?

The con

Experience

Desert Crown arrives with a 2-2 record but just two Derby winners have struck on their third start since the turn of the millennium.

The 2013 winner Ruler Of The World is the only horse in the past decade to strike in the Classic on his third start, with four winners on their fourth start in that period and two scorers – Masar and Anthony Van Dyck – making use of eight previous runs.

Ruler Of The World: one of two Derby winners since 2000 to land the race on their third startCredit: Edward Whitaker

Workforce is the only other horse since 2000 to have won the Derby on his third start, although he was also trained by Stoute. Stone Age, Desert Crown's rival at the head of the betting, has the benefit of seven runs.

Expert view – is Desert Crown one to back for the Derby at 9-4?

Not for me. He is undoubtedly the correct Derby favourite, but it is easy to imagine close to 3-1 being available on the day and even better on the exchanges.

If you're backing a horse at 9-4 ante-post, you should probably be convinced your selection is at best a genuine 6-4 shot. I can't see that with Desert Crown.

I have nothing against him. Recording a Racing Post Rating of 120, as Desert Crown did in the Dante, is an outstanding effort for a horse on their second run. However, this is an up-to-scratch running with several other outstanding prospects in opposition and Epsom will provide a new test for the market leader.
Robbie Wilders, tipster

Cazoo Derby (4.30 Epsom, June 4)

bet365: 9-4 Desert Crown, 5-2 Stone Age, 15-2 Piz Badile, 8 Changingoftheguard, 12 United Nations, 14 Star Of India, 16 Walk Of Stars, 18 Westover, Eydon, 25 bar

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