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Japanese hopes down but not out as Diamond fails to sparkle
There are countless theories as to why it is Japan has so far failed to win the race it covets more than any other, including one strand of thinking that their horses do too much in the prep race.
At least those who know Satono Diamond best – trainer Yasutoshi Ikee and his Chantilly-born jockey Christophe Lemaire – can fall back on the local wisdom that you can't win the Arc on trials day, only lose it.
Both men agreed that a dose of autumn sunshine would certainly improve their chances of turning Foy defeat into Arc glory in three weeks' time, Satono Diamond having finished fourth of six in this prep, drifting to as big as 20-1 for the Arc, although bet365 were unchanged at 10-1.
"He was very relaxed and I don't think the lead horse acting up made any difference to us," said Lemaire, referring to the strange odyssey of Satono Noblesse and rider Yuga Kawada.
"Satono Diamond took three or four good gulps of air on the way round, which suggests he was short of race fitness on such soft ground. He tied up a bit in the last furlong and, against Group 1 winners, we finished where we deserved to."
Forty-five minutes later in the official press conference, Ikee faced the same questions, having satisfied himself in consultation with the racecourse vet that a small cut on Satono Diamond's near hind was only superficial.
"In terms of whether the soft ground or the horse's condition were the main factor in Satono Diamond's defeat, I would say they both contributed equally," said Ikee.
This was a muted question and answer session, but not the same magnitude of inquest as followed his two Arc-day defeats with Orfevre, which came replete with repeated apologies from Ikee to the horse's fans at home.
Ikee said: "In a way I'm relieved the horse is sound, but it was hard for him mentally once the horse behind had knocked him. It's good he's gained experience of racing in European conditions with horses much closer together."
Ikee said he would give Satono Diamond's training regime plenty of thought in coming days but that he didn't think defeat would "change all that much" in terms of the intensity of his work.
Orfevre almost won the wettest Arc of the last decade, but Ikee is hoping for nothing but sun between now and October 1.
"If it's soft like this it won't be ideal but, once he's stronger, he can probably cope with it," he said. "My worry is it could be worse, and then things will get really difficult for him."
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