How odds-on favourites have fared in the Leger and what it means for New London

New London is the overwhelming favourite for Saturday's Cazoo St Leger (3.30) at Doncaster. The form of the Charlie Appleby-trained colt's Gordon Stakes win is working out particularly well and he is a best-priced 10-11 to triumph on Town Moor. But being favourite for a Classic brings a certain amount of pressure – how have other odds-on shots fared in the final Classic of the season over the last decade and how does New London compare?

Hurricane Lane (2021)

Price: 8-11

Result: Won

One of the leading three-year-olds heading into the St Leger, the Irish Derby winner was the clear standout contender having won the Grand Prix de Paris on his previous start.

The son of Frankel made no mistake as he ran out an easy two and three-quarter length winner under William Buick with Mojo Star, who had finished in front of Hurricane Lane in the Derby, never threatening the impressive winner in second.

Logician (2019)

Price: 5-6

Result: Won

Carefully managed by John Gosden in the early stages of his Classic campaign, it was not until he put in a dominant performance in the Great Voltigeur Stakes at the Ebor festival that he emerged as the leading St Leger hope.

Switched to the stands' side rail in the home straight by Frankie Dettori, Logician stormed to a two and a quarter-length win from rivals which included future Cox Plate winner Sir Dragonet and top stayer Technician.

Idaho (2016)

Price: 4-6

Result: Unseated rider

Idaho had followed the conventional St Leger trial path that so many have used for success and after placing in both British and Irish Derbys, he stamped his Classic credentials when an impressive winner of the Great Voltigeur at York.

However, major drama followed in the race itself when, early in the home straight, he stumbled and unseated rider Seamie Heffernan just over three furlongs out. Thankfully, both horse and jockey were ok as outsider Harbour Law took top honours, but it was a case of what might have been given he was still travelling well and had yet to be asked for an effort.

Camelot (2012)

Price: 2-5

Result: Second

It was meant to to be the day of destiny for the star three-year-old, who many felt was a certainty to become the first winner of the Triple Crown since Nijinsky in 1970.

However, his bubble was burst as he could not reel in 25-1 outsider Encke to create history, and went down a three-quarter length second.

How does New London compare?

Camelot was unbeaten and chasing the Triple Crown when he arrived to Town Moor following his sensational summer which saw him land the 2,000 Guineas, Derby and Irish Derby, while Idaho and Hurricane Lane had been battle-hardened at Group 1 level.

Logician was also unbeaten, albeit in lesser contests, but he did warm up for the Leger with victory in the Group 2 Great Voltigeur, whereas New London has yet to contest a race higher than a Group 3 and was beaten by Changingoftheguard when a heavy odds-on favourite for the Chester Vase on soft ground in April.

New London also has plenty to find on Racing Post Ratings compared to his odds-on counterparts at this stage.

His career-best RPR of 115 is 4lb lower than Logician's 119 heading into the race, while Idaho (120), Hurricane Lane (125) and Camelot (126) had considerably higher RPRs.

Expert view: 'I'd avoid him at the price'

By Robbie Wilders, tipster

New London is certainly the likeliest winner of the St Leger but looks a little too short with significant rain forecast at Doncaster this week. The only time he ran over further than 1m4f on soft ground he was put in his place by Changingoftheguard in the Chester Vase.

While there were excuses for that and the son of Dubawi has improved since, he enters the unknown here. I would rather avoid him at the prices.Emily Dickinsonand French Claim are my ideas of the potential each-way value in the race. Emily Dickinson will relish this thorough examination of stamina and French Claim will love the testing conditions.

Cazoo St Leger Stakes (3.30 Saturday, Doncaster)

Betfair Sportsbook: 5-6 New London, 4 Eldar Eldarov, 13-2 Hoo Ya Mal, 8 Zechariah, 12 Bluegrass, 14 French Claim, 20 bar

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Who wins the 2022 Cazoo St Leger at Doncaster based on previous trends?

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