Hot favourite Not So Sleepy's Betfair Hurdle run hinges on crucial school

Hughie Morrison warned that Betfair Hurdle favourite Not So Sleepy is only a "probable", rather than a definite, for Saturday's big handicap at Newbury and could go straight to the Champion Hurdle.

The eight-year-old will need to please in a schooling session at Henrietta Knight's on Tuesday morning if he's to bid for Betfair's £100,000 winter bonus following a bloodless success at Ascot in December.

Not So Sleepy, he said, is "a horse who can give a negative", so he has been reluctant to commit him 100 per cent to the race, especially as the Unibet Champion Hurdle is very much on his agenda "however he runs at Newbury".

"Everything needs to be right," he said on Monday about the general 6-1 chance, "otherwise we'll wait for Cheltenham."

All has gone well so far for Not So Sleepy, however, since an impressive Betfair Exchange Hurdle success at Ascot in December – his second over the course and distance in a month – and while Cheltenham remains the priority, Morrison conceded that the Betfair bonus is "certainly a factor in the thinking as it's seriously substantial and very generous".

Not So Sleepy would have to win the Champion Hurdle to make that a more lucrative result than were he to score at Newbury, with the second prize at Cheltenham being £95,400.

He is hopeful that the flashy chestnut with the distinctive white blaze will do rather better at Newbury than Marble Arch, who was 9-2 favourite when pulled up in the corresponding race in 2002.

Morrison said: "Not So Sleepy came on a stone between his two wins at Ascot and was obviously impressive, so we are full of enthusiasm, but we are realistic as it might not have been the greatest of races. That said, he wouldn't have won a Dee Stakes as a three-year-old if he didn't have some class, and maybe he's got his mojo back."

Not So Sleepy has not always been straightforward, as Morrison admitted, saying: "He's had some good days, but not as many perhaps as his ability would warrant.

"He hasn't been consistent – he'd never won two races together like that before – but Jonny Burke [his rider this season] understands him. He realises it's best to let the horse do what he wants. Fighting him is a pointless exercise."

Not So Sleepy has been raised 17lb for his second Ascot win. Morrison described it as "a huge hike", but he has no argument with it and conceded that he will need to be significantly better than his current 144 if he is to be a factor in the Champion Hurdle, for which he is a top-priced 25-1.

He said: "He deserved it. He's got a lot to prove this weekend and it might turn out they [the handicappers] overdid it, but 144 isn't a huge rating in terms of top hurdlers these days. He's got to school well tomorrow though, otherwise he might not run."

Marble Arch won the equivalent Ascot handicap to the Betfair Trophy in 2001 but was very disappointing at Newbury. His poor effort there is easily explained however, and he bounced straight back with a career-best at Cheltenham.

Morrison said: "Marble Arch was a horse who wanted everything to go his way and he was a good-ground horse. He just didn't operate on the soft ground at Newbury, but back on ground faster than we've ever had at Cheltenham, he was second to Hors La Loi in the Champion Hurdle.

"Half an hour after that we won the National Hunt Chase with Frenchman's Creek, but they both needed good ground. If the ground at Cheltenham had been as it is nowadays I suspect they would both have struggled."

The ground at Newbury is currently soft, good to soft in places, which is less testing than Not So Sleepy has been winning on this season, but Morrison is not concerned.

He said: "He's won twice on heavy this season [officially soft on the first occasion], and I wouldn't want fast ground, but you would like to think good jumping ground, which would be soft on the Flat, would be ideal."

Not So Sleepy is one of 30 confirmations at the five-day stage, with other high-profile contenders including Mack The Man, Never Adapt and Thebannerkingrebel.

Sir Valentine and Stolen Silver, a Haydock Grade 2 winner last time out, could bid to give Nigel Twiston-Davies a fourth success in the race, while 2015 winning-trainer Gary Moore is treble-handed.

Betfair Hurdle winners at Cheltenham

The last winner of the Betfair Hurdle who went on to Champion Hurdle glory was the brilliant Make A Stand in 1997.

Zarkandar, who struck in this race in 2012, was the last winner to go down the Champion Hurdle route, finishing fifth behind Rock On Ruby.

In recent years Newbury's showpiece handicap has more traditionally been used as a stepping stone to the Supreme Novices', as shown by My Tent Or Yours in 2013, who was runner-up in the Supreme, Ballyandy (2017), who finished fourth behind Labaik at the festival, and Kalashnikov (2018), who was runner-up to Summerville Boy.

Last year's winner Al Dancer also ran in Cheltenham's opening contest but could finish only tenth.

It is worth keeping a close eye on any Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained horse as he has won three of the last six runnings.
Kitty Trice

Read The Lowdown from 8.30am daily on racingpost.com and the Racing Post app for all the day's going updates, news and tips