'It would be a Samcro thing to do, wouldn't it? Run a massive race at Aintree'

Gordon Elliott confirmed on Tuesday he would have eight runners in Saturday's Randox Grand National at Aintree, a whopping fifth of the field.

The three-time Grand National-winning trainer unsurprisingly gave a very positive mention to Delta Work, the five-time Grade 1 winner who is disputing favouritism for the Aintree race after breaking the hearts of Tiger Roll supporters when denying him on his final start in the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase at last month's Cheltenham Festival.

However, another multiple Cheltenham Festival winner was also the subject of some warm words from the Cullentra trainer. We take a look at Elliott's words of encouragement for Samcro fans, how the ten-year-old fares on trends and recent form and get the National verdict.

He is a general 66-1 chance, although William Hill and Unibet have him available at 80-1.

Samcro: star is a two-time Cheltenham Festival winner but has lost his way this seasonCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

What Elliott said

"Samcro definitely runs. He's a massive price, but it wouldn't shock me if he ran a big race. It would be a Samcro thing to do, wouldn't it? Run a massive race in something like the Grand National.

"I've been delighted with him over the last few weeks since Down Royal and I think he has come on plenty for that run. He could just take to the fences and, if he does, you never know what he might do. He might not be the horse he was, but he seems to be in a very good place at the moment."

Gordon Elliott: trainer will have eight runners in the Randox Grand National on SaturdayCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

How Samcro fares on the trends and form

A ten-year-old has not won the race since Ballabriggs in 2011 but Rough Quest, Earth Summit, Monty's Pass, Silver Birch, Numbersixvalverde and Don't Push It have all won at the same stage of their careers since 1996, so his age is hardly a negative.

Six of the last nine winners carried 10st 13lb or less and Samcro's weight burden is just above that as he is set to carry 11st 1lb.

He last won over two and a half miles in May last year and the two-mile Grade 2 he was second in was poorly contested back in November. Samcro has not been at his best since he won the Marsh Novices' Chase, again over nearly two miles short of the National trip, at the festival in 2020.

He is unproven at marathon trips as he finished last in the Savills Chase over three miles in December and tired late on in his most recent start over three miles two furlongs at Down Royal. However, that last effort perhaps offers a bit of hope as eight of the last nine winners of the Grand National had finished in the first three at least once in their previous three starts.

Although not a National-specific trend, the form of the Elliott stable may be a cause for concern with the trainer operating at just a four per cent strike-rate in the last fortnight.

Who will win the 2022 Grand National based on previous trends?

The verdict

Despite being a rare talent on his day, Samcro has not shown anything like his best form for two years and there has not been any suggestion he will improve for this sort of stamina test. He has the pace to be involved early on if the race sparks his interest but do not expect him to make a meaningful impact on the second circuit.
Maddy Playle, Weekender tipster

Randox Grand National (Aintree, April 9)

Ladbrokes:7 Snow Leopardess, 8 Delta Work, Any Second Now, 10 Enjoy D'Allen, Escaria Ten, 12 Eclair Surf, 14 Fiddlerontheroof, Minella Times, 16 Burrows Saint, Longhouse Poet, Run Wild Fred, 20 bar

5.15 Aintree Saturday: Randox Grand National racecard and betting

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