From age to ratings - stats that make a difference at the Cheltenham Festival

The Racing Post Cheltenham Festival Guide 2022 (available to buy here for £12.99) is brought to you by the best team in the business and the 208-page book is packed with analysis and views from every angle. Editor Nick Pulford picks out some key pointers to note.

The big five

Henry de Bromhead has been a growing force and his super six winners last year put him alongside the established big four of Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson, Gordon Elliott and Paul Nicholls.

Between them the five have won 65 per cent of festival races in the past five years (if we include winners who would have been sent out by Elliott last year but for his suspension).

Their dominance is most pronounced in the Grade 1s. Last year their stables won 12 out of 14 (including Mares’ Hurdle winner Black Tears from Elliott’s yard but officially trained by Denise Foster) and their Grade 1 strike-rate over the past five festivals is 79 per cent.

Gavin Cromwell was the only trainer outside the big five to win at Grade 1 level last year (with Flooring Porter in the Stayers’ Hurdle and Vanillier in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle).

Best for the rest

Those looking for an edge against the big five might find it in the races where they have been relatively less successful, namely the Ultima Handicap Chase (one win in the past five years), Plate (one), Stayers’ Hurdle (two), Kim Muir (two), County Hurdle (two) and Hunters’ Chase (two).

Vintage Clouds wins last year's Ultima Handicap Chase for the Sue Smith stableCredit: Tim Goode (Getty Images)

Age

Apart from the Hunters’ Chase and a couple of the handicap chases, most of the races are dominated by the younger age groups.

Removing the two juvenile hurdles, 18 of the 26 races (69 per cent) last year went to horses aged six or seven and only three winners had advanced into double figures.

That is something to bear in mind with Stayers’ Hurdle fancies Champ and Paisley Park, who are both ten and trying to become the first to win that race at a double-figure age since the 11-year-old Crimson Embers in 1986. Seven of the last eight Stayers’ Hurdle winners have been aged six or seven.

Similarly, the ten-year-old Chacun Pour Soi’s time may have passed for a successful Champion Chase bid. Only three of the last 22 winners were into the double-figure age bracket.

The going

The past decade has seen a gradual shift towards the festival opening on softer ground than used to be the norm.

Good ground featured prominently in Tuesday’s going description nearly every year from 2012 to 2017, but since then the predominant conditions have been soft or heavy.

One possible consequence is that the winter form (when the ground has been soft or heavy) tends to stand up better at the festival.

Seventeen of the 28 winners last year came from the first three in the betting.

Handicap marks

The golden number in terms of handicap ratings (over hurdles and fences) is around the 140 mark.

Of the nine handicaps on the programme, five were won last year in the band from 137 to 143. Over the past five years almost half of the winners in those races have been in that range.

The last nine winners of the Kim Muir were in that band.

Mount Ida wins last year's Kim Muir off a mark of 142, followed home by two horses rated 140 and two more on 142Credit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

Favourites

Day one tends to be a good day for Grade 1 favourites with the Arkle Chase having had seven winners in the past ten years, closely followed by the Champion Hurdle with six.

The trickiest Grade 1s for favourites are the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (one winner in the past ten years) and Champion Bumper (two).

Longer odds

Big-priced winners are commonplace in the County Hurdle and Coral Cup (both eight at double-figure odds in the past ten years), followed by the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle, Grand Annual, Albert Bartlett and Martin Pipe (all seven).

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Don't miss the Racing Post Cheltenham Festival Guide 2022. Only £12.99, the 208-page guide features Paul Kealy's race-by-race analysis, Racing Post Ratings, top tipsters, bookmaker Q&A, trainer analysis and more. Order your copy here or call 01933 304858.