From 33-1 to 6-1 in a week: what we know about big Derby gamble Desert Crown

The Derby trials at Chester and Lingfield have thrown up plenty of Classic clues for Epsom next month, but one horse has shortened significantly in the betting without needing to advertise his credentials.

Before the Guineas, Desert Crown was around a 33-1 chance to win the Cazoo Derby, but he has been backed steadily and is now viewed as a leading contender after bet365 and William Hill put him up as a 6-1 chance.

With ante-post favourite Luxembourg ruled out of the race by Aidan O'Brien on Sunday and defeats for a few other fancies, it has opened the market up but Desert Crown remains the intriguing runner – and we will find out more about him at York this week.

What do we know?

The Sir Michael Stoute-trained Desert Crown has raced only once, winning at Nottingham in highly impressive style. The five-and-a-half length success in November achieved a Racing Post Rating of 92, which was 2lb better than victories in the same race for subsequent Group 1 winners, Space Blues (2018) and Mishriff (2019).

The form of the race has worked out okay. The second, Schmilsson, finished runner-up again at Epsom and fourth-place Shigar repeated his position at Doncaster next time.

Desert Crown's pedigree is interesting. His four half-brothers have all won, including Flying Thunder, who landed a Group 3 sprint race in Hong Kong.

Sire Nathaniel should add the stamina element required: the 2011 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes winner famously sired the brilliant Enable.

Cazoo Derby: betting and entries

What's coming next?

Stoute will take a familiar path with Desert Crown, who will take in the Group 2 Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes (3.35) at York on Thursday.

Shahrastani (1986) and North Light (2004) did the York-Epsom double and Stoute's last Derby winner, Workforce, finished second in the Dante before romping to a famous seven-length Epsom win in 2010.

The trainer has won the Dante six times and his representative is currently favourite for the Group 2 prize. El Bodegon, Magisterial and Point Lonsdale could take him on.

What do connections say?

Bruce Raymond, racing manager for owner Saeed Suhail: "The plan is to run him on Thursday. He works very well. Sir Michael is bringing him along very gradually. A month ago you certainly wouldn't think about any Derby, but he's starting to hit the right note now.

"Our horse will stay very well and whatever he does in the Dante he'll improve a lot for it. I wouldn't worry about him getting beaten in the Dante because it's his first run of the season and Sir Michael's are not yet firing on all cylinders.

"He will be a decent horse – whether he comes right for the Derby I don't know – but he'll be a good horse later."

What do the bookies say?

David Stevens, Coral: “Desert Crown has shortened for the Cazoo Derby in recent days, and whilst there has been some market support for the colt, his price contraction was largely down to the uncertainty over Luxembourg, and the lack of a standout trial winner so far.

"Desert Crown has been the subject of a positive bulletin from connections and he will get his own chance to test his credentials in this week’s Dante. A clear-cut victory at York would surely see him take outright favouritism for the Epsom Classic.”

Paul Binfield, Paddy Power: "Desert Crown has been relatively popular with us but mainly at bigger odds. At the moment it seems punters are waiting to see how he fares on his seasonal reappearance in the Dante before getting stuck into his current odds. We have shortened him in the betting but that was mainly due to a few fancied Godolphin runners being beaten in the last week.”

What does an expert think?

Desert Crown never came out of cruise-control to win his only start at Nottingham last November.

The manner in which he lengthened his stride smacked of a top-class colt and, judged on the way in which he has been backed for the Derby in recent days, it’s fair to assume he has improved considerably this spring.

We’ll learn more in the Dante, but it’s likely he’ll prove the biggest threat to Aidan O’Brien’s premier Classic hopefuls.
Richard Birch, tipster

Cazoo Derby (4.30 Epsom, June 4)

bet365:3 Stone Age, 9-2 Changingoftheguard, 6 Desert Crown, 8 Piz Badile, 10 Point Lonsdale, 12 Star Of India, United Nations, Walk Of Stars 14 Eydon, New London 16 Buckaroo, Cash, Westover, 20
Magisterial, 25 bar

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