Big Evs v Asfoora round three: examining the leading speedsters in next week’s Nunthorpe

Episode three of Asfoora v Big Evs is set to hit the Knavesmire next week with the score currently 1-1. Here, we run the rule over them as well as their other sprinting rivals…

Asfoora

Form: 204412

Strengths: After a solid introduction to British racing in May, Asfoora has been a high-class addition to the sprinting division. She dazzled at Royal Ascot in the King Charles III Stakes before a slightly unlucky route through the King George Stakes at Glorious Goodwood. The six-year-old mare gets a 6lb swing in the weights with King George winner, Big Evs having lost by only a short head. Trainer Henry Dwyer believes York will suit her better than Goodwood, so her favouritism is justified.

Asfoora: bidding to go one place better than her second at GoodwoodCredit: Patrick McCann

Weaknesses: When evaluating her at the weights and in the conditions, she has a really solid profile. What could catch her out is the presence of Bradsell and Regional, who both missed Goodwood. If she sits prominently, like she did in the nearside group at Ascot, there could be plenty of early pace for her to deal with. Not going too fast too early will be key.

Odds: 5-2

Big Evs

Form: 011-131

Strengths: Big Evs has made a seamless transition from his juvenile season to this year. He won the Westow Stakes on his first start of the campaign before finishing a valiant third to Asfoora at Royal Ascot. Those tables were turned at Goodwood, where he made use of the 5lb difference between the pair to just hold on at the line. Stepping back up into Group 1 company will be no issue for him and he gets a 2lb weight-for-age allowance from the older colts and geldings.

Big Evs: going for first Group 1 win as a three-year-oldCredit: Edward Whitaker

Weaknesses: The 6lb swing in the weights with Asfoora is notable and, had it not been for Live In The Dream hindering the Australian raider at Goodwood, she may well have beaten Big Evs. Mick Appleby has trained just one winner from 22 runners since Big Evs’ King George success, suggesting the yard’s form might be turning for the worse.

Odds: 5-1

Bradsell

Form: 33137-1

Strengths: The Archie Watson-trained Bradsell made his first run for 329 days a victorious one this month in the Prix du Cercle at Deauville. It was a winnable race, but he sat prominently and quickened up smartly when asked by Hollie Doyle. The four-year-old has some strong form in the book, notably when beating four-time Group 1 winner Highfield Princess in the 2023 King’s Stand Stakes. Bradsell was third in last year's Nunthorpe, so he handles York, and defeating Royal Scotsman and Blackbeard as a two-year-old in the 2022 Coventry Stakes is more good form to look back on.

Bradsell: downed Highfield Princess at Royal Ascot last yearCredit: Alan Crowhurst

Weaknesses: He is prone to a big underperformance, as shown when disappointing in last year’s Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock. Although we can’t predict if this will occur at York, his seasonal reappearance was 19 days ago, so there is the possibility he could bounce on his second start of the campaign.

Odds: 8-1

Believing

Form: 914413

Strengths: Like Asfoora, Believing will race off 9st 10lb due to being a filly. Her name is fitting as trainer George Boughey has always believed in her ability, so much so that he sent her to Hong Kong for the £1,955,000 Chairman’s Sprint Prize in April. She finished ninth of 10 then, but that was put behind her with a comfortable win in the Achilles Stakes in June. Since then, she has battled in the top races and she looked dominant in the Sapphire Stakes at the Curragh under Ryan Moore. On her latest start in the King George Stakes, she missed the break but stayed on to finish an eyecatching third. With a better break and a more prominent position, she could be underestimated, especially on a more galloping track as she has won over six furlongs before.

Believing: has to reverse form with Big Evs and AsfooraCredit: Patrick McCann

Weaknesses: Both Asfoora and Big Evs have finished ahead of her twice this season in the King Charles III Stakes and the King George Stakes and she would need to improve past them both with a career-best effort. Asfoora is 2lb better off at the weights at York compared to when they last met at Goodwood, although Big Evs is 4lb worse.

Odds: 10-1

Regional

Form: 151-224

Strengths: Consistency is key when it comes to Group 1 sprints and Regional is as solid as they come. The six-year-old came from the same part of the track as Asfoora in the King Charles III Stakes and finished a good second despite taking a notable look at the Royal Ascot crowd with a furlong and a half to go. While Asfoora kept as straight as an arrow, the Ed Bethell-trained gelding lost ground and found himself on the back foot. He’s clearly a classy speedster, having won last year’s Group 1 Sprint Cup at Haydock. Although that was over six furlongs, he is probably better suited to a well-run five furlongs and returning to this trip should be a positive.

Regional: searching for first Group 1 victory at five furlongsCredit: john grossick

Weaknesses: For a challenger who would need a career-best effort to win, it’s a worry that he has to give weight away to Asfoora, Big Evs and Believing. However, he is 4lb better off at the weights with Big Evs based on the King Charles III Stakes despite finishing half a length ahead of him.

Odds: 10-1

Live In The Dream

Form: 44-2544

Strengths: The 2023 winner Live In The Dream is back to defend his title. His winning performance last year was by no means a fluke as his early fractions put his classy opposition, notably Highfield Princess, Bradsell and Regional, out of their comfort zone. The hard work was done after four furlongs, so all he and Sean Kirrane had to do was see out the final furlong to land a first Group 1 success. After a valiant fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint last November, he has failed to return to his heights of last season. However, his last run in the King George Stakes showed some promise and he shouldn’t be written off if he returns to his successful front-running tactics. One can imagine that this has been the season-long plan from trainer Adam West.

Live In The Dream: decisive winner of last year's NunthorpeCredit: Edward Whitaker

Weaknesses: Despite positives from his last run, he needs to turn around a notable deficit with Big Evs, Asfoora and Believing from Glorious Goodwood. Furthermore, he gets only a 1lb swing in the weights with Big Evs and is worse off with Believing by 3lb and Asfoora by 5lb.

Odds: 12-1

How about the rest?

We probably haven’t got to the bottom of Starlust, who has looked impressive in two victories this season, while Washington Heights beat Mill Stream – a Group 1 winner in the July Cup subsequently – in the Abernant Stakes earlier this season. After missing Royal Ascot, Bucanero Fuerte would be a notable inclusion if connections decide to drop him back to five furlongs. Kerdos already has one victory over Live In The Dream this season and wasn’t disgraced in the King George Stakes last time. Art Power is a versatile veteran who could use his class to good effect if returning to the minimum trip and Makarova could outrun her odds having had a luckless run through her latest race at the Curragh.

Verdict

There are many talented horses in this field, but a price of 8-1 seems hard to ignore about Bradsell. Any form in the book with Highfield Princess is worth its weight in gold and he merits the utmost respect. Asfoora should be bang there and will be tough to crack, while Regional is another strong contender.

Read these next:

A red-hot Yorkshire Oaks: assessing the key contenders for next week’s Group 1 contest 

The race of the season? Assessing the main contenders for next week’s Juddmonte International at York 

Looking for free bets? Racing Post have got the best offers, all in one place. Visit racingpost.com/freebets to find out more.