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Will we get an international winner at Royal Ascot? Analysis of the key contenders
Royal Ascot always has an international feel to it, and this year promises to be no exception, with a plethora of overseas challengers poised to line up at the meeting. Here is a comprehensive analysis of the key contenders . . .
United States
Keeneland-based Wesley Ward is set to saddle three runners at this year's meeting, while John Sadler also has a contender . . .
Ultima Grace
Trainer Wesley Ward
Race Queen Mary Stakes (2.30 Wednesday)
Odds 10-1
Ultima Grace shed her maiden tag with ease on her sole start at Keeneland over 4½f on dirt in April. The daughter of American Pharoah set a brisk early pace and barely had to be asked a question by John Velazquez to keep up the gallop, running out a comfortable winner, albeit at odds of 1-10.
Although the form of that race is questionable, Ultima Grace subsequently impressed her trainer Wesley Ward with her work on turf, and given five of American Pharoah's eight Group 1 winners came on grass it looks as if Ultima Grace should be suited by the Queen Mary.
Saturday Flirt
Trainer Wesley Ward
Race Norfolk Stakes (2.30 Thursday)
Odds 12-1
Saturday Flirt is arguably Wesley Ward’s number one Royal Ascot contender and is already proven on turf.
The daughter of Mendelssohn impressed Ward, who bred the filly recently purchased by Jim and Fitri Hay, in her early breezes on the turf and made a winning debut over 5½f in a maiden at Keeneland, slowly away and taking the widest route at the top of the straight but still scorching past her ten rivals to win by a length and a quarter.
Those patient tactics are set to be repeated at Ascot with Irad Ortiz again on board as Saturday Flirt bids to give Ward his third Norfolk Stakes winner after Shang Shang Shang (2018) and No Nay Never (2013).
Burning Pine
Trainer Wesley Ward
Race Albany Stakes (2.30 Friday)
Odds 12-1
Burning Pine’s sole start came on the dirt at Keeneland and she could not have done much more over the 4½f trip.
The Nyquist filly set brisk fractions and made all to win under a motionless Joel Rosario in April. The form of that maiden has subsequently been franked, with multiple winners coming out of it.
Although clearly speedy, she is being targeted at the Albany over 6f, with Ward believing the rangy filly will be more suited by the extra distance. On pedigree this decision seems justified, the $80,000 yearling purchase being a half-sister to Neat, a Grade 3 winner over a mile. That success was on turf, giving optimism that Burning Pine won’t be inconvenienced by the surface switch.
Missed The Cut
Trainer John Sadler
Race Hardwicke Stakes (3.05 Saturday)
Odds 12-1
Missed The Cut is already a Royal Ascot winner, having struck in the 1m2f Golden Gates Handicap two years ago when trained by George Boughey. Since transferring to John Sadler, Missed The Cut has tried his hand at dirt, winning the Grade 3 1m4f Tokyo City Cup Stakes on the surface at Santa Anita.
The five-year-old has been kept busy over the winter, winning a pair of Grade 3s on turf back at Santa Anita before being beaten a length and a half by the Charlie Appleby-trained Silver Knott in a Grade 2 over 1m4f at Keeneland in April.
While not quite up to the top level, Missed The Cut is a consistent horse who would relish a sounder surface over the 1m4f trip of the Hardwicke.
Australia
There is Australian representation in the King Charles III Stakes, the race that Aussie sprinter Nature Strip won in 2022 . . .
Asfoora
Trainer Henry Dwyer
Race King Charles III Stakes (3.45 Tuesday)
Odds 15-2
The meeting’s only Australian representative, and while not at the level of Nature Strip, the last horse to win at the royal meeting for the country, Asfoora has shown top-class sprint form.
A four-time Group winner in her home country, the Henry Dwyer-trained mare made her British debut in the Group 2 Temple Stakes last month, where she showed plenty of pace before fading to finish fourth. That was her first start for two months and she was entitled to tire in the soft ground
Asfoora’s best form came in last year's Spring Carnival, where she landed a Group 3 at Caulfield before landing the Group 2 Schillaci Stakes at the same track in October, where she had subsequent Group 1 winner Chain Of Lightning back in third.
A sound surface is likely to bring the best out of the daughter of Flying Artie and Oisin Murphy has been booked to ride.
France
There is a strong French team at this year's meeting as they seek a first Royal Ascot triumph since 2019 . . .
Facteur Cheval
Trainer Jerome Reynier
Race Queen Anne Stakes (2.30 Tuesday)
Odds 10-3
Facteur Cheval heads into the Queen Anne off the back of his best performance and first Group 1 win in the 1m1f Dubai Turf in March.
The five-year-old denied Japanese raider Namur – last seen finishing a close second to Hong Kong star Romantic Warrior – by a short head. A further length and a quarter behind in fourth was Measured Time, a subsequent Grade 1 winner in the Manhattan Stakes.
The field also featured multiple Group 1 winners who didn't fire, which can rarely be said of Facteur Cheval, a consistent performer who has only been out of the first three once in 14 starts.
Before the Dubai Turf he had placed three times at Group 1 level, with two of those runs coming in Britain.
The son of Ribchester contested last summer's Sussex Stakes at Goodwood, where he was second to top miler Paddington. Facteur Cheval challenged after a less than ideal trip, while Paddington had the rail to help him.
Jerome Reynier’s charge returned for the QEII at Ascot on British Champions Day, where he ran another admirable race in tough conditions to finish second to compatriot Big Rock.
Previous Ascot experience will serve him well and, although versatile, the better ground will surely suit. Facteur Cheval will bid to give Reynier his first Royal Ascot success, and he can take confidence from the fact Facteur Cheval has already beaten main market rival Charyn.
Big Rock
Trainer Maurizio Guarnieri
Race Queen Anne Stakes (2.30 Tuesday)
Odds 11-2
Big Rock showed smart form in his three-year-old season before launching himself to prominence in the milling division with a dominant display in the QEII on British Champions Day.
Then under the care of Christopher Head, Big Rock made all in the soft conditions and kept up the relentless gallop to score by six lengths.
His reappearance in the Lockinge at Newbury was a far cry from that performance, the four-year-old weakening in the closing stages to finish sixth, beaten 15 lengths by Audience.
New trainer Maurizio Guarnieri blamed the colt’s stumble at the start which cost him ground before he forced the pace on drying ground.
While the son of Rock Of Gibraltar prefers a softer surface, his fine second behind subsequent Arc winner Ace Impact in the Prix du Jockey Club shows he can run well on a better surface.
A return to Ascot and more time to adjust to his new yard will perhaps result in a better showing from Big Rock, whose reappearance was 39lb below his QEII romp on Racing Post Ratings.
Dolayli
Trainer Francis Graffard
Race Queen Anne Stakes (2.30 Tuesday)
Odds 20-1
Dolayli is an improving five-year-old who boasts six wins from ten starts.
Five of those starts have come this year after the son of Siyouni missed his four-year-old season. Three wins on the all-weather over 1m1½f prompted a step up to Group company, initially in the mile Group 2 Prix du Muguet at Saint-Cloud, where he finished a creditable length-and-a-quarter third.
Next time, Dolayli contested the 1m1f Prix d’Ispahan on what was his first Group 1 assignment. He struck the front a furlong out but couldn't hold on and finished fourth, a length behind the winner Mqse De Sevigne. The form reversal with Marhaba Ya Sanafi, who beat him a length at Saint-Cloud, suggested he had improved again, and the shorter distance of a mile in the Queen Anne looks likely to suit.
Darlinghurst
Trainer Jerome Reynier
Race St James's Palace Stakes (4.25 Tuesday)
Odds 18-1
Darlinghurst enhanced his credentials for the St James's Palace Stakes with a smooth victory in the 1m1f Group 3 Prix de Guiche at Chantilly last month.
With victory, the son of Dark Angel made it four from four this year, following on from Listed success on the all-weather in March.
The form of both contests has worked out well, with the second from the Listed race, Wootton Veni, claiming the Group 3 Prix Greffulhe, while First Look, second in the Prix de Guiche, went on to be second in the Group 1 Prix du Jockey Club.
Trainer Jerome Reynier opted to drop Darlinghurst back in trip for the St James's Palace rather than attempt the French Derby, and the three-year-old will join stablemate Facteur Cheval on a big opening day of the royal meeting for the trainer.
Sea The Lady
Trainer Christopher Head
Race Duke of Cambridge Stakes (3.45 Wednesday)
Odds 25-1
Four-year-old filly Sea The Lady finished third on her seasonal and stable debut in the 1m2f Group 3 Prix Allez France in April.
The form of that race was franked when the second Pensee Du Jour went on to win the Group 2 Prix Corrida next time out.
Before her reappearance, Sea The Lady was twice placed at Group level for Yann Barberot, including in the 1m3f German Oaks when she was third, beaten two and a half lengths by Muskoka.
Despite being capable over extended distances, Sea The Lady has shown speed to win over 6½f and the stiff mile at Ascot should suit.
Horizon Dore
Trainer Patrice Cottier
Race Prince of Wales's Stakes (4.25 Wednesday)
Odds 13-2
Horizon Dore went off at 4-1 in the Champion Stakes at Ascot last year after stringing together four consecutive wins in France over 1m2f.
That sequence included an emphatic display in the Prix Dollar on Arc weekend, where he made a sweeping run down the outside of the field and was eased close home.
His turn of foot seems his main asset and it was blunted on Champions Day, although he still managed to hold on to third behind King Of Steel.
This year the four-year-old has raced four times, including a fifth-placed effort in the 1m2f Group 1 Prix Ganay before a recent second in the 1m1f Group 1 Prix d’Ispahan.
Horizon Dore appears to be warming up nicely for Patrice Cottier, and while he performs well enough in testing conditions, a sounder surface may see better from him.
Blue Rose Cen
Trainer Maurizio Guarnieri
Race Prince of Wales’s Stakes (4.25 Wednesday)
Odds 14-1
A Group 1-winning juvenile, Blue Rose Cen claimed another three wins at the top level last year, most recently in the Prix de l’Opera over 1m2f, when she asserted close home to win by a neck over Jackie Oh.
Her best performance on RPRs came in the Group 1 Prix de Diane over 1m2½f, where she comfortably defeated Never Ending Story by four lengths.
The daughter of Churchill contested the Group 1 Nassau Stakes at Goodwood last August, when she finished fourth behind Al Husn. She was short of room when making her challenge and only beaten a length and a quarter, running on again in the closing stages.
On her four-year-old debut last month, Blue Rose Cen stepped into open company for the first time in the Group 1 Prix d’Ispahan. She finished a respectable fifth when you consider she was the only runner lacking a recent start.
Blue Rose Cen looks capable of better with race fitness under her belt and should relish a more truly run race in the Prince of Wales’s.
Zarakem
Trainer Jerome Reynier
Race Prince of Wales's Stakes (4.25 Wednesday)
Odds 25-1
Zarakem started his career in May last year and went unbeaten until October, claiming two Listed contests in that time over 1m4f and 1m2f.
His run ended when he failed to fire at Group 2 level in the Prix du Conseil de Paris, finishing sixth, beaten seven and a half lengths by two-time Group 1 winner Iresine.
This year he has shown both those sides of himself, reappearing in the Group 2 Prix d’Harcourt at a heavy Longchamp track and downing Horizon Dore, a 13-2 chance for the Prince of Wales’s, by a length and a half. Next time he disappointed again in the Group 1 Prix Ganay, where he started 14-5 favourite but made little impression and was eased in the final furlong.
If he can show his best form at Ascot, Zarakem has every chance of outrunning his odds.
Ramatuelle
Trainer Christopher Head
Race Coronation Stakes (3.45 Friday)
Odds 9-2
Ramatuelle comes into Royal Ascot on the back of a close-up third in the 1,000 Guineas under Aurelien Lemaitre. She travelled strongest of all into the race but hit the front earlier than ideal off a strong pace, and after breaking away from the field was just collared late by Elmalka and Porta Fortuna.
It was a commendable effort considering she was the only placed filly to have been ridden near the pace and trainer Christopher Head has decided to stick to a mile in the Coronation Stakes rather than drop her in trip.
It will be Ramatuelle’s third attempt at Group 1 level, having also been narrowly thwarted by star juvenile Vandeek in the Prix Morny over 6f last year.
Rouhiya
Trainer Francis Graffard
Race Coronation Stakes (3.45 Friday)
Odds 10-1
Rouhiya began her season quietly with a third-placed effort in a conditions race at Longchamp, but last month sprung a 31-1 surprise in the Group 1 Poule d'Essai des Pouliches (French 1000 Guineas) on a soft Longchamp track.
The Aga Khan filly showed a decisive turn of foot under Maxime Guyon to deny Kathmandu by a head in the Classic.
The daughter of Lope De Vega is clearly capable in stamina-sapping conditions, though connections believe she wants good ground. The prospect of further improvement on a sounder surface is an exciting one.
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