Who will win the 2024 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe based on previous trends?

The Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (3.20 Longchamp, Sunday), with its illustrious roll of honour, is the most prestigious turf race in Europe and quite possibly the world. While the cream often comes to the top, the draw and ground can often play their part and, with this year's race looking as wide open as ever, having trends on your side could prove a healthy asset.

Los Angeles has been a top three-year-old this season, winning the Irish Derby in JuneCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

Three-year-olds dominate

Older horses have offered stern resistance in recent times, with four and five-year-olds responsible for five of the last six winners. However, with a generous weight-for-age allowance, first preference is always for one from the Classic generation. Three-year-olds hold the bragging rights with 61 victories to 41 overall, and 19 to 11 in the last 30 years.

This year’s three-year-olds are strong, filling the first five places in the ante-post market and claims can be made for all of them.

Sosie leapfrogged Look De Vega to favouritism after winning the Prix Niel with the latter left trailing in third. Many an Arc winner was defeated the time before, but finishing first in that influential trial is preferred when 12 winners have followed up in the Arc since 1954. Furthermore, Sosie also captured the Grand Prix de Paris and that too is a key race, a Group 1 that Saumarez (when staged over 1m2f), Peintre Celebre, Bago and Rail Link all won en route to Arc glory.

Irish Derby winner Los Angeles is the other three-year-old to strongly consider. He is an assured stayer and successful three-year-old colts often boast Derby honours of some description. He ran an eyecatching trial when a staying-on fourth in the Irish Champion Stakes over a trip short of his best.

Al Riffa: impressed over 1m4f in Germany last time outCredit: Deutscher Galopp/Marc Ruhl

Age concerns

If opposing the three-year-olds then go with a four-year-old as older horses have usually missed the boat. Since the first running in 1920, there have been only nine successful five-year-olds and only one older than that, namely Motrico in 1932.

Only five winners since 1975 were older than four and such horses are 2-53 since 2012, with Tarnawa, Enable, Postponed and Treve amongst those defeated.

The four-year-old Al Riffa has been popular since proving his stamina for 1m4f in a Group 1 in Germany last time. That was crucial when Ace Impact and Saumarez are the only winners since 1990 who were attempting 1m4f for the first time.

However, that victory at Hoppegarten was in early August and an absence of 56 days is longer than ideal. Eighteen of the last 21 winners had run between 21 and 29 days prior to the Arc.

Japanese hoodoo

The Japenese are obsessed with the Arc, but they have tried and failed on 31 occasions to land Europe's famous race.

While they have yet to score, they have finished runner-up on five occasions with El Condor Paso in 1999, Nakayama Festa in 2010 and Orfevre in 2012 and 2013. Orfevre is arguably one of the unluckiest Arc runners of all time. He had all but won the race in 2012, only to be collared late by Solemia, and in 2013 bumped into the brilliant Treve.

This year Japan rely on the well-fancied Shin Emperor, who was a real eyecatcher in the Irish Champion Stakes last time out, to break their duck.

Bluestocking was a good winner of the Prix Vermeille last time outCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

Female forces

Having gone 15 years between Urban Sea (1993) and Zarkava (2008), fillies and mares are enjoying a golden period, with the increased opportunities in sex-restricted races resulting in a higher number kept in training.

Danedream, Solemia, Treve, Found, Enable and Alpinista have collectively captured eight of the last 13 renewals. Bluestocking is taken to confirm Prix Vermeille placings with Aventure and is not without hope of becoming the seventh filly to win that Group 1 and then the Arc. Offering encouragement for Aventure is that Treve was only fourth in the Vermeille before winning her second Arc.

Verdict

A talented home-trained three-year-old is usually the way to go and Sosie has undergone a typical French preparation having won the Prix Niel on the back of a midsummer sabbatical. His trainer Andre Fabre is the Arc’s winningmost trainer and six of his eight winners were three-year-olds.