Who will win the 2023 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp based on previous trends?

The Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (3.05 Longchamp, Sunday) takes centre stage in Paris this weekend and we've looked at a number of factors over the past ten years to see who may win the big race. You can also claim £40 in free bets from Paddy Power ahead of the Arc here.

• 2023 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp: the runners, the odds, the verdict 

Age

Two of the last four Arc winners were aged five but they would be outliers historically, with Waldgeist (2019) the first winner from that age group since 2002 and last year's winner Alpinista the first five-year-old mare to win the Arc since 1937. Horses aged three or four have landed 18 of the last 20 runnings of the Arc.

At six, victory for Hukum on Sunday would make him the oldest winner of the race since seven-year-old Motrico claimed his second Arc in 1932.

Ground

In Monday's Front Runner, Chris Cook highlighted the difference that the ground has on the Arc's predictability, with three of the last five winners on officially good ground priced at 9-2 or shorter, compared with just one winner shorter than 7-1 in the last five runnings held on testing ground.

If weather forecasts are to be believed, we should be far closer to good ground than heavy for Sunday's Arc, which is a plus for Westover given very soft ground was felt to have blunted his speed in last year's race.

Ratings

Nine of the last ten Arc winners had produced a Racing Post Rating of 120 or higher in a race that calendar year, the exception being shock 2021 scorer Torquator Tasso, who had produced an RPR of 118 in his two runs prior to the Arc.

Simca Mille, Free Wind and Place Du Carrousel are three runners in this year's Arc field who have not managed to produce an RPR of 120+ in their runs this season, while Continuous registered his best RPR of 121 when landing the St Leger this month.

Distance

The last ten Arc winners had been successful over the 1m4f trip, which is a negative for current market leader Ace Impact, who has yet to race beyond 1m2½f. Bay Bridge was successful on his first try at the trip in the September Stakes at Kempton last time.

Class of race

The last ten Arc winners were already Group 1 scorers. Solemia was the last horse who was breaking through at the top level when landing the race in 2012.

Japanese raider Through Seven Seas is yet to gain a win in this company but she did finish a neck second in the Grade 1 Takarazuka Kinen last time.

Route to Longchamp

Waldgeist and Enable (2018) are the only horses in the past decade to not prep for Longchamp with a run at Group 1 level, with Waldgeist landing the Group 2 Prix Foy and Enable claiming the Group 3 September Stakes on their respective starts prior.

Pascal Bary's Feed The Flame was unsuccessful in the Group 2 Prix Niel on his latest start.

• Why this horse can win the 2023 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp on Sunday - plus 1-2-3 predictions 

How to claim your Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe free bets

Get £40 in 2023 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe free bets from Paddy Power this week

Verdict

Westover and Continuous fit most of the criteria and marginal preference is for the former, who went down on his shield in the King George when last seen in July. He has been freshened up since and, having finished sixth in this race last year, could continue a developing trend of horses beaten in the Arc going on to land the race 12 months later, joining a club that includes Found, Waldgeist and Sottsass.

Westover15:05 Longchamp

View Racecard

Jky: Tnr: Ralph Beckett

Grab a £40 Paddy Power free bet for the 2023 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

We've already mentioned that Paddy Power are offering £40 in free bets for this year's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.

Well, you can follow these simple steps outlined below to grab your £40 free bet to place on the big race. It's fast, secure and straightforward.

1. Head over to Paddy Power through this link and click the 'Join' button on their homepage
2. Create your username and password
3. Make a deposit of £10 or more using a card and place a bet on a sportsbook market with odds of 1-2 or greater
4. You will be rewarded with £40 of free bet tokens added to your balance

Paddy Power betting sign-up offer for this year's Arc: terms and conditions

It's worth taking a few minutes to read through the terms and conditions associated with the new player promotion before signing up. Doing so will help you get a better grasp of the details of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe betting offer and what's expected of you as a new player.

• New UK & ROI customers only
• Minimum deposit £10 bet at minimum odds of 1-2 to qualify
• Get £40 in free bets, valid for 30 days
• SMS verification required
• Bets placed on greyhound racing markets are excluded
• Only deposits via cards will qualify

Read these next:

2023 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp: the runners, the odds, the verdict 

Confirmed runners and riders for the 2023 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp - plus a big-race tip and free bet 

Why this horse can win the 2023 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp on Sunday - plus 1-2-3 predictions 

2023 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp: assessing the top contenders for Sunday's big race 

2023 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp: raceday running order and how to watch 

Racing Post Members' Club: subscribe now 

Want more free bets? Racing Post have got the best offers, all in one place. Visit racingpost.com/freebets to find out more.

Commercial notice: This article contains affiliate links. Offers are handpicked and come from operators that our experts have first-hand experience of. Opening an account via one of these links will earn revenue for the Racing Post, which will be used to continue producing our award-winning coverage of horseracing.