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2024 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe tips: 'He could be special' - why this horse can win at Longchamp on Sunday
A selection of our top tipsters have provided their selection for the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (3.20) at Longchamp on Sunday . . .
Sosie
Forecast odds: 9-2
By David Jennings
I've been banging the Al Riffa drum for months, but I've had a late change of mind and Sosie is now the chosen one.
Sosie could be special. Both his defeats have been on bottomless ground and the fact he was still able to emphatically land the Prix Niel despite pulling Maxime Guyon's arms out for half the race must mean he has got loads of raw talent.
The further he went, the better he looked that day and you don't have to be Einstein to work out that Andre Fabre has prepared him to peak on the first Sunday of October. He's got a great draw and the perfect profile. It's Sosie for me.
By Matt Rennie
None of the talk was about Sosie following his Prix Niel win, but he can have Look De Vega's measure once again and give Andre Fabre another victory in the Arc.
While people seemed easy to excuse Look De Vega's run in that trial, Sosie's effort has to be marked up too, given he was mad keen but still put the race to bed easily by a length and a half.
He is now unbeaten in three runs at Longchamp, including in the Grand Prix de Paris, and being by Sea The Stars is bred to be an Arc winner. Fabre also did the Prix Niel/Arc double with Rail Link in 2006, so it's a tried-and-tested route the French maestro has used before.
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Shin Emperor
Forecast odds: 13-2
By Graeme Rodway
Ran a huge race on his European debut when third behind Economics and Auguste Rodin in the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown, keeping on in eyecatching fashion after being short of room.
All the talk before that race was that was no more than a prep for the Arc, so there should be improvement to come, and the return to a mile and a half looks certain to suit.
His brother Sottsass finished fourth at Leopardstown before going on to win a heavy-ground Arc and Shin Emperor has loads of form on better going. He should therefore handle any conditions that are thrown at him and the French three-year-olds haven't looked special, so he may not have a lot to beat.
Al Riffa
Forecast odds: 9-1
By Joe Eccles
Al Riffa gave City Of Troy backers a scare in the Eclipse earlier this year, going down by a length despite having to concede 10lb to the subsequent Juddmonte International winner.
The third- and fourth-placed horses have both placed at Group 1 level since and Joseph O'Brien's colt did his bit for the form when bolting up by five lengths in the Grosser Preis von Berlin at Hoppegarten next time.
That Group 1 can count subsequent Arc winners Torquator Tasso and Alpinista among its recent roll of honour and at a double-figure price Al Riffa looks the value in the Arc market.
By Andrew Dietz
Not many of this field look capable of getting within a length of City Of Troy but Al Riffa did just that in the Coral-Eclipse and holds outstanding claims on form.
This has long been the season target mapped out by trainer Joseph O'Brien and the four-year-old appears to be peaking following a career-best on his first run over 1m4f in the Grosser Preis von Berlin.
Al Riffa has some seriously strong back-form too, including a close second to last year's sensational Arc winner Ace Impact on his final start at three.
Confidence would be higher with regular rider Dylan Browne McMonagle on board, but quotes of around 10-1 look more than fair in an open running.
Bluestocking
Forecast odds: 10-1
By Scott Burton
Bluestocking was supplemented on Wednesday and that looks the right move by connections as she has been in excellent form all season and looks to have a huge chance.
She was an easy winner of the Vermeille last time out, beating Aventure by three-quarters of a length. Ralph Beckett has gone close in this race with Westover – he can get over the line this time.
By James Hill
Bluestocking is surely where the value lies at this stage. She's had a great season, winning two Group 1s as well as making the frame in both the King George and Juddmonte.
Westover was second for connections 12 months ago, while fillies and mares have won nine of the last 16 runnings.
Tough and consistent, expect her to be thereabouts with conditions in her favour, and she rates a good each-way bet at around the 10-1 mark.
Fantastic Moon
Forecast odds: 20-1
By Keith Melrose
If you fancy Al Riffa at around 12-1, then you need to take seriously the chances of Fantastic Moon at double the price.
Last year's German Derby and Prix Niel winner was sent off 12-1 for Ace Impact's Arc and, while he finished 11th, I would defy anyone who didn't know the result to pause the replay a furlong and a half out and tell me he finishes out of the first five.
We have learned a bit more about Fantastic Moon this year. He probably does not subscribe to the stereotype about German-trained horses, that they need deep ground to thrive. It was reported as good when he won the Grosser Preis von Baden last time. We can get a decent handle on the worth of that form from runner-up Dubai Honour, who Fantastic Moon beat comfortably. In third was Narrativo, who was beaten almost exactly as far as he was when second in the Grosser Preis von Berlin behind Al Riffa.
This is likely to be an Arc that takes less winning than average, unless Look De Vega is hiding a bit more up his sleeve than was apparent even in the Prix du Jockey Club. Fantastic Moon is the sort of horse who steps up to fill the gap in years like this and he is being underestimated.
Continuous
Forecast odds: 25-1
By Maddy Playle
Last year's St Leger winner has not been able to show his best so far this season as he was reportedly carrying lots of condition prior to his seasonal reappearance in the Hardwicke and then wouldn't have been suited by making his own running in the Prix Foy last time.
In between those efforts he stamped his class on an inferior field over an insufficient trip in the Royal Whip, while his claims for this race are clear based on his unfortunate fifth-placed finish last year, when he stayed on powerfully after being blocked for a run.
This doesn't look like an outstanding running of the Arc and odds of 25-1 about him look too big.
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2024 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe betting
Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (3.20 Longchamp, Sunday)
Forecast odds: 9-2 Sosie, 5-1 Look De Vega, Los Angeles, 13-2 Shin Emperor, 9-1 Al Riffa, 10-1 Bluestocking, 12-1 Delius, 16-1 Aventure, 20-1 Fantastic Moon, Mqse De Sevigne, 25-1 Continuous, Sunway, 40-1 Zarakem, 50-1 Survie, 66-1 Haya Zark, Sevenna's Knight
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Read these next:
Who has the best - and worst - draw in the 2024 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe?
Who will win the 2024 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe based on previous trends?
Confirmed runners and riders for the 2024 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp
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Published on inPrix de l'Arc de Triomphe
Last updated
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