Longchamp looms large: how is the 2023 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe shaping up and who heads the betting?

We are still firmly in the thick of the Flat season, with big festivals to come in Ireland and Britain including both St Legers. The 2023 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe on Sunday October 1 might be a speck on the horizon, but a number of contenders are firmly marching down the long road to Longchamp. Here, we assess how the race is shaping up and the leading players bidding to emulate the wonderful mare Alpinista, allez!

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Ace Impact

Form: 1111

Prospects and plans: A stunning winner of the Prix du Jockey Club on June 4 in the quickest time in the race's history, Ace Impact is set to fly the home flag in the Arc. He was given a Racing Post Rating of 125 for his three-and-a-half-length defeat of Big Rock and is the firm market leader for the Group 1 at Longchamp. The unbeaten three-year-old will head to stud in France at the end of the season, after Haras de Beaumont reached a deal to purchase a 50 per cent share from owner Serge Stempniak, but he could yet finish his racing career with a bang. The Jean-Claude Rouget-trained star is yet to run over further than 1m2½f, but his Chantilly win suggested the 1m4f Arc test wouldn't pose any issues. Ace Impact makes his comeback in the Group 2 Prix Guillaume d'Ornano over 1m2f at Deauville next Tuesday, August 15 – is he the cream of the three-year-old crop?

Best odds: 5-1

What they say

Cristian Demuro, jockey: "I honestly don’t think there would be a problem in stepping Ace Impact up to 2,400 metres [a mile and a half]. I’ve watched the race back a thousand times and he was really strong through the line and I have little doubt he would have kept going over further. I don’t think rain in the run-up to the Arc would be a problem for Ace Impact. It was very soft when he won at Bordeaux and there was also plenty of give in the ground when he won the Prix de Suresnes."

Ace Impact15:15 Longchamp

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Jky: Tnr: J-C Rouget

Hukum

Form: 171-11

Prospects and plans: The summer rain might have been a drag for most of us but for connections and supporters of Hukum it was more than welcome. As the weather worsened the Owen Burrows-trained six-year-old strengthened in the market for the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot and he duly delivered, relishing the challenge at Ascot and gamely holding off Westover to make his starting price of 13-2 look like a steal. Hukum, whose jockey Jim Crowley received a contentious ban for his ride in the King George, has suffered injuries and is lightly raced as a result, but he returned to the track in May after nearly a year on the sidelines with a defeat of last year's Derby winner Desert Crown. Brilliant but brittle, he will likely head straight to Longchamp after his Ascot heroics.

Best odds: 8-1

What they say

Owen Burrows, trainer (on July 30): "The Arc is nine weeks away, but he had a hard enough race at Ascot and, without sounding cocky, we're pretty confident we can get him there on the big day without a prep run. It was a fantastic day. The King George was a fabulous race and it was fantastic to see it live up to its billing, even if something went wrong with Auguste Rodin and Emily Upjohn didn't run her race. It was extra special to see Hukum come out on top and we know he stays the Arc trip and handles softer ground. If those conditions prevail in October, they wouldn't put him off. He'd be a genuine Arc contender and you don't often get one of those."

Hukum15:15 Longchamp

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Jky: Tnr: Owen Burrows

Feed The Flame

Form: 1141

Prospects and plans: Feed The Flame was fourth behind Ace Impact in the Prix du Jockey Club but has flourished since, tasting big-race glory himself with victory in the Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp on July 14 – a success which presents perfect course-and-distance form ahead of the Arc. Usually ridden by Christophe Soumillon, he had Cristian Demuro on board that day and the rider suggested the form of the win – with Feed The Flame finishing a length ahead of Adelaide River – makes him one of Europe's best three-year-olds. He is set to warm up in the G2 Prix Niel over 1m4f at Longchamp on September 10 .

Best odds: 9-1

What they say

Cristian Demuro, jockey: "It’s a real pleasure to ride the two best three-year-old colts in France. They are quite different in that Feed The Flame is a real horse for 2,400 metres [a mile and a half], and Ace Impact is very effective at 2,000 metres [a mile and a quarter] and, I think, 2,400 metres. For me the formline of the Jockey Club and the Grand Prix is the best around at the moment. Adelaide River was only a length behind Auguste Rodin in Ireland and Feed The Flame beat him easily, while Ace Impact beat Feed The Flame by nearly seven lengths. The form looks very strong."

Feed The Flame15:15 Longchamp

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Jky: Tnr: P Bary

Paddington

Form: 111111

Prospects and plans: All hail the king. In a summer where the three-year-olds have generally flattered to deceive, Paddington has been a shining beacon of hope. Aidan O'Brien's superstar has four Group 1s under his belt already this year, with the Juddmonte International at York likely to be his next destination. The epitome of class and determination, Paddington is yet to run over further than 1m2f, but the gutsy manner of his wins suggests he would relish the Arc trip, even if things are testing at Longchamp. Henri Bozo, who raised the colt, agrees, saying: "What is so fun about this horse is that anything is possible, whether you want to run in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe or the Jacques le Marois. He's a horse who is quite novel in that respect, it's a little crazy." There is a lot of ground to cover before O'Brien and connections decide whether or not to send him to France – but still, Paddington in the Arc would be brilliant, wouldn't it?

Best odds: 12-1

What they say

MV Magnier, Coolmore stud: "Seamus Heffernan always said this was a very good horse. The whole way through the winter he then kept saying that he's a very proper horse. Before the Irish Guineas he was saying that this horse is a motor car. After the Irish Guineas he came up to me and said if that didn't happen, his judgement was gone. In fairness to Seamus, his judgement hasn't gone and he's 100 per cent right. Ryan [Moore] got off him there and just said: 'The ground doesn't matter to him. The trip doesn't matter to him. I know this might sound a bit silly, but this horse could win the Arc.' The Arc is a long way away but, of course, it's an option. We'll look at the Juddmonte International between now and then and see how Auguste Rodin comes out of last week. Then we'll figure it out."

Paddington15:15 Longchamp

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Jky: Tnr: A P O'Brien

Westover

Form: 6-2212

Prospects and plans: Westover tailed off somewhat after last year's Irish Derby win but the old fire has been rekindled this season, with his win in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud sandwiched between fine seconds behind Emily Upjohn in the Coronation Cup and Hukum in the King George. This year's exploits suggest he would head to Longchamp with legitimate prospects of improving on last year's sixth-place finish – particularly if conditions are suitable. His year started in March at Meydan, where he finished three and a half lengths behind one of the best horses in the world in Equinox. With the Japanese star unlikely to be lining up in the Arc, he has far less to fear, but connections have suggested the Ralph Beckett-trained four-year-old could skip the Arc and instead target the Breeders' Cup Turf.

Best odds: 12-1

What they say

Barry Mahon, Juddmonte racing manager (after the King George): "He'll get a little bit of a break now, he was on the go early this year and he's had two quick runs. We'll have to think about the Arc but we know from last season that he doesn't want heavy ground and we've seen in the last few years that it can come up heavy there. Ralph said yesterday if it's like that this time we won't run. There are plenty of other races and the Breeders' Cup Turf could be a nice fit for him."

Westover15:15 Longchamp

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Jky: Tnr: Ralph Beckett

Who else is in the mix?

Auguste Rodin's no-show in the King George has put a serious dent in his credentials and the Derby winner now looks to be his stable's second string behind Paddington. The John and Thady Gosden-trained fillies Emily Upjohn and Soul Sister are likely to be in the mix, with the Yorkshire Oaks this month likely to help guide Frankie Dettori in his bid for a seventh and final Arc. Savethelastdance relishes testing ground and could be another Ballydoyle representative, while last year's second, Vadeni, who is without a win since July 2022, could be back for another crack.

Verdict

Paddington has been a joy to watch this season, and you get the impression he is going to go down as an all-time great. The manner of his victories show he isn't afraid to roll his sleeves up and get stuck in – he could have the class and grit needed to win even if things become gruelling at Longchamp. Let's hope he turns up.

Paddington15:15 Longchamp

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Jky: Tnr: A P O'Brien