Ground expected to remain on easy side of good for Arc day despite varying forecasts

The uncertainty around who will go off favourite for the 103rd Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe has been matched throughout the week by the lack of clarity over Sunday's weather forecast, and even on the eve of Europe's greatest race, different weather organisations could not agree.

On Saturday evening one forecaster moved to predicting as much as seven millimetres of rain by mid-morning, though the majority of their rivals were expecting next to nothing.

Following a dry week, Saturday's racing took place under blue skies, with most riders happy to row in with the official going description of 'souple' or good to soft on the GoingStick. The descent into the false straight showed the most signs of turf being kicked up as the day wore on.

Rene Piechulek is due to ride Fantastic Moon, one of the more ground-dependent runners in the Arc and, speaking between his two rides on Saturday, the 2021 winning rider said: "The ground should be okay with the fresh strip and the open stretch. The false straight is a bit loose, so I have to speak with the trainer and the owners. He will arrive this evening and we will decide tomorrow."

Of the chance of rain, clerk of the course Charles de Cordon said: "I don't have any rain in the forecast and if that's the case, we will pass from 3.6 to 3.5 on the penetrometer, so we'll be closing in on 'bon souple'. Even the most pessimistic forecast that I use has a 90 per cent chance of one or two millimetres, which would keep us at 3.6, the same as today."

The majority of the Grande Piste will feature an eight-metre strip of virgin ground on the rail, widening out to 16 metres in the straight.

The open-stretch cutaway rail will be in operation from 450 metres – just over two furlongs – before the first winning post, giving a six-metre space for horses to try and progress from in behind without having to go wide.

Read more:

'We said if there's one race this season we want him to be bang on for, it's the Arc' - top trainers on their Longchamp contenders  

2024 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe runners, tips and ratings: David Jennings' pinstickers' guide 

Aidan O'Brien and Kyprios continue to dominate as opinions differ on likely Arc day ground 

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