2024 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe: assessing the leading contenders for Sunday's big race at Longchamp
It's all eyes on France this weekend as the latest edition of Europe's biggest Flat race, the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (3.20), is run at Longchamp on Sunday. Will a typically strong home challenge ensure the Arc remains across the Channel or can Japan finally claim the prize that has always eluded them? Here, we assess the main contenders for the €5 million Group 1 . . .
Sosie
Form: 2-1311
Strengths: Sosie catapulted to the head of the Arc market after his smart victory in the Prix Niel last month, a race in which he saw off fellow Arc contenders Look De Vega and Delius. That win on September 15 once again showed he relishes Longchamp – he is three from three there – and followed his success in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris at the track, where he beat the Aidan O'Brien-trained Illinois over the Arc course and distance. His form makes him a worthy favourite.
Weaknesses: The son of Sea The Stars looks tailormade for the Arc test, but he will need to confirm the form with one-time ante-post favourite Look De Vega, who is entitled to come on from the Prix Niel having previously been off the track for 105 days.
What they say
Pierre-Yves Bureau, racing manager (after the Prix Niel): "We came here knowing Sosie stayed the trip and that he adores Longchamp – this is his third win here. He's really beginning to reach maturity. The question was how he would measure up to Look De Vega, but Maxime [Guyon] just rode his own race and he really picked up and ran all the way to the line. He's a very calm horse with a good temperament and that will stand him in good stead for the Arc."
Odds: 4-1f
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Look De Vega
Form: 1-113
Strengths: Look De Vega's bubble was burst when beaten at odds of 7-10 in the Prix Niel, but connections will be confident he can bounce back on Sunday. That run came after a break of more than three months and was the first defeat of his career, with the Arc always being his long-term target. His assured success in June's Prix du Jockey Club emphasises his credentials and potential, and he should be there or thereabouts in the big one.
Weaknesses: Look De Vega obviously has questions to answer following his Prix Niel defeat and must reverse the form with Sosie. With just four career starts to his name could he struggle to grind it out against more battle-hardened rivals?
What they say
Yann Lerner, joint-trainer (after the Prix Niel): "Look De Vega was a bit below his fighting weight today compared to before the Jockey Club and everything is about the Arc in three weeks. Ronan [Thomas, rider] said he felt he was going to fight out the finish and he just got tired in the last 200m."
Odds: 6-1
Shin Emperor
Form: 2-2533
Strengths: Is this finally Japan's year? The Arc is an obsession in Japanese racing, but Europe's biggest prize has so far proven elusive. This year it is Shin Emperor who carries the hopes and dreams of the Land of the Rising Sun. As auditions go, Shin Emperor's run in the Irish Champion Stakes wasn't a bad one. Having endured a luckless run, the Yoshito Yahagi-trained three-year-old hit the line hard under Ryusei Sakai, suggesting there was plenty left in the tank, and he was only narrowly beaten by the prodigious Economics and Group 1 stalwart Auguste Rodin. Afterwards his trainer reported him to only be at "70-80 per cent" for the Leopardstown thriller, so he could be coming to the boil at the perfect time.
Weaknesses: Shin Emperor will have to boldly go where no Japanese horse has gone before if he is to be the one who finally lifts the Arc curse. The history books suggest he will have his work cut out on just his second run away from home. Unproven on soft ground.
What they say
Yoshito Yahagi, trainer (after the Irish Champion Stakes): "Coolmore had four starters but we had only one, so it was a tough race as expected. In Japan, it was too hot and he wasn't in good condition, but after coming to France he gradually improved his condition and I think he did well at 70-80 per cent."
Odds: 6-1
Los Angeles
Form: -13114
Strengths: It has been a busy summer for Los Angeles, who has shown serious durability and talent during a relentless campaign. Winner of the Irish Derby and Great Voltigeur Stakes, he has proven himself to be a serious player over a mile and a half and should relish the Arc trip. The first string for his powerful connections, he is likely to have the peerless Ryan Moore on board as he bids to give Aidan O'Brien his first win in the race since Found in 2016.
Weaknesses: Los Angeles is a likeable, relentless galloper who always gives his all, but you wonder if he quite has the class needed to win an Arc. He was beaten by an undercooked Shin Emperor in the Irish Champion Stakes and might struggle to reverse that form, even if the extra distance should play to his strengths.
What they say
Ryan Moore, rider (after the Great Voltigeur): "I don't think Los Angeles needs to go any further. He probably will get further but he doesn't need to. He's done very little wrong in his career. He took me there easy but doesn't do a whole lot in front, but he's a good horse."
Odds: 15-2
Al Riffa
Form: 2-4621
Strengths: Globetrotting Al Riffa warmed up for the Arc with his first victory of the season, landing the Group 1 Grosser Preis von Berlin at Hoppegarten in August. City Of Troy might have run below par in the Coral-Eclipse, but Al Riffa's length second at Sandown doesn't look bad form considering the other exploits of the Breeders' Cup Classic favourite this year. Nobody finished closer to last year's unbeaten Arc winner Ace Impact than Al Riffa, when beaten three-quarters of a lengths in the Group 2 Guillaume d'Ornano last year.
Weaknesses: As impressive as Al Riffa's Hoppegarten win was, the strength of the form can be questioned given the quality of the opposition, even if he did put them away with consummate ease. That said, Alpinista and Torquator Tasso were previous winners of the race who used it as a stepping stone for glory at Longchamp.
What they say
Joseph O'Brien: "The Arc has always been the main race we have had in mind this season, so we've worked backwards from it. We've always thought he was the right type. We know our horse is pretty versatile with regard to the going as well, so hopefully he has a bit in his favour. Germany was Al Riffa's first go at a mile and a half and you can only beat what is put in front of you. He won very impressively and the race has a good history of producing Arc contenders."
Odds: 12-1
How about the rest?
According to the market, the Jean-Claude Rouget-trained Delius is the next best of the French challenge behind Sosie and Look De Vega. However, while he finished ahead of the latter in the Prix Niel, he has found Sosie too good on his last two starts.
Sunway could be the only British-trained contender, but Bluestocking would be an intriguing runner with a serious chance if connections decide to supplement her.
While softer ground would boost Bluestocking's prospects of running, the opposite is true of Auguste Rodin. The six-time Group 1 winner would bring a serious class edge to the table, but the faster ground he would relish probably won't materialise and he rates an unlikely runner.
Verdict
Sunday's Arc looks typically open and a tough nut to crack. However, if Japan are going to break their duck maybe this is the year to do it as SHIN EMPEROR'S run behind the potentially great Economics looks like rock-solid form. He can create a slice of history at Longchamp.
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Read more:
Longchamp ground begins to dry after wet week but Arc going picture remains uncertain
The horses we'd love to see win this Arc weekend - although some of them will need a change of luck
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Published on inPrix de l'Arc de Triomphe
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