Who will win the 2024 July Cup at Newmarket based on previous trends?

The My Pension Expert July Cup Stakes (4.35 Newmarket, Saturday) is one of the most intriguing sprint races of the season as the three-year-olds clash with the older sprinters on the July course at Newmarket. This year's star three-year-old sprinter Inisherin heads the market along with last year's top juvenile Vandeek. However, with multiple Group 1 winner Kinross set to line up, they have to prove they are up to the level of the older brigade.

Cup now the key trial

Commonwealth Cup winner Inisherin is a strong favourite and rightly so.

The Classic generation is renowned for holding its own and trail the older horses by a solitary victory since 1945. Although older horses are 22-14 ahead since 1988, remember they have had twice as many representatives (317 compared with 152).

The 2018 winner, U S Navy Flag, was following a familiar path of three-year-olds dropping in distance for this after coming up short over further, and Inisherin himself had a crack at the 2,000 Guineas. However, by and large, the introduction of Royal Ascot’s newest Group 1 has put paid to that trend.

The Commonwealth Cup’s inaugural winner, Muhaarar, followed up here and the following year Quiet Reflection was third in this on ground too fast for her.

Then Caravaggio was fourth seven years ago to Harry Angel, who was second in that Group 1. Ten Sovereigns and Advertise, who dominated this race in 2019, were fourth and first respectively at Ascot, and the last four horses first past the post in the Commonwealth Cup to run here finished 3261.

This good guide will also be represented by third-placed Jasour, who was an impressive winner of the July Stakes at this meeting 12 months ago. Vandeek, another highly talented three-year-old, would have been a leading fancy at Ascot but for his late withdrawal.

Khaadem beats Swingalong and Mill Stream in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Royal AscotCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

Ascot clues aplenty

It is rare for older winners not to have lined up in one of the big sprints at Royal Ascot and the 6f Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes is the best guide.

Although the 2020 hero Oxted won this after landing the 5f King Charles III Stakes, that race has been on the decline as a pointer with Fleeting Spirit its previous winner some 12 years earlier.

Therefore, focus on the 6f feature that Khaadem won at the expense of Swingalong and Mill Stream. Three of the four winners to emerge from that race since 2010 had won it, with the exception being sixth-placed Alcohol Free.

Verdict

The trends strongly suggest that Inisherin will take some beating after his impressive success in the Commonwealth Cup. That Group 1 has become a major pointer to this but one statistic that counts against Kevin Ryan’s speedball is that Ascot was his fourth appearance of the season and ten of the last dozen winners had had no more than three.

With this in mind, it could be worth taking him on with Ascot third Jasour, who left himself with a lot to do last month. Clive Cox’s three-year-old might well find something on that form and it bodes well that he won at this meeting 12 months ago.

Vandeek was a strong fancy for the Commonwealth Cup before being scratched a few days before and, after just the one start this season, he should be ready to run for his life. Khaadem is another with claims.