Boom or bust? Five hot favourites to back or avoid at the Irish Champions Festival this weekend

The Irish Champions Festival takes place this weekend with competitive eight-race cards staged at Leopardstown on Saturday and the Curragh on Sunday. In anticipation of two days of high-class action, we have delved into the chances of the five shortest-priced horses in the current betting markets, assessing whether you should back them – or avoid them – this weekend.

Diego Velazquez

KPMG Champions Juvenile Stakes (2.15 Leopardstown, Saturday)

Odds: 1-2

A 2.4 million guineas yearling, Diego Velazquez justified odds of 2-5 when making a winning debut over 7f at the Curragh last month. The son of Frankel took a little while to hit top gear but ultimately stretched away for a comfortable four-and-three-quarter-length success.

He steps up to a mile for Saturday's Champions Juvenile Stakes, which should suit, and his trainer Aidan O'Brien has claimed six of the last ten runnings of this race.

That Curragh form has received knocks since, with the third, fourth and fifth all beaten next time out, while the winning time was also significantly slower than the other races on the card.

Ryan Moore and Diego Velazquez pictured after their win at the Curragh, August 12Credit: Patrick McCann

Back or avoid?

Impressive on debut and falls into the 'could be anything' category but the odds available make absolutely no appeal.
AVOID

Diego Velazquez14:15 Leopardstown

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Jky: Tnr: A P O'Brien

Tahiyra

Coolmore America "Justify" Matron Stakes (2.45 Leopardstown, Saturday)

Odds: 5-6

Burst onto the scene with an impressive victory in the Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh last September, producing a Racing Post Rating of 119, the highest figure achieved in that Group 1 since the introduction of RPRs.

She has run to a consistently high level in three starts this season, chasing home Mawj in the 1,000 Guineas before claiming Group 1 wins in the Irish equivalent and the Coronation Stakes.

Her trainer Dermot Weld has had this race in mind since Royal Ascot, but this will be a new test for her as she takes on her elders for the first time.

The Matron Stakes has also been something of a graveyard for favourites recently, with only one market leader obliging in the last ten years.

Tahiyra (left) winner of the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot last time outCredit: Tom Dulat

Back or avoid?

Career form figures read 11211, but she is taking on older horses for the first time and has been off the track for more than two months.
AVOID

Tahiyra14:45 Leopardstown

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Jky: Tnr: D K Weld

Ylang Ylang

Moyglare Stud Stakes (3.25 Curragh, Sunday)

Odds: Evens

Ylang Ylang fetched 1.5 million guineas as a yearling and looked an exciting filly when making all in a maiden over this course and distance on her debut in June.

She was once again sent to the front in the Group 3 Silver Flash Stakes at Leopardstown last time and, while her victory was not as visually impressive as at the Curragh, she never looked in any serious danger of being reeled in by the chasing pack.

Silver Flash runner-up Vespertilio, who is likely to reoppose on Sunday, has since franked the form, while the fourth and fifth have also won since.

Ylang Ylang wins the Group 3 Silver Flash Stakes at Leopardstown under Ryan MooreCredit: CAROLINE NORRIS

Back or avoid?

Comes into this race 2-2 and the form of her Group 3 win has worked out well. Not an obvious one to oppose.
BACK

Ylang Ylang15:25 Curragh

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Jky: Tnr: A P O'Brien

City Of Troy

Goffs Vincent O'Brien National Stakes (4.00 Curragh, Sunday)

Odds: 4-7

A son of Justify, out of Fillies' Mile winner Together Forever, who has created quite the impression in his two starts on the track.

Aidan O'Brien's colt supplemented a debut win at this track with a six-and-a-half-length romp in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket's July festival, producing an RPR of 117 – the highest recorded in the Superlative since the introduction of RPRs.

City Of Troy steps up in grade on Sunday and takes on a Group 1 winner in Bucanero Fuerte, but he looks like a potential top-notcher and should have conditions in his favour.

City Of Troy: impressive winner of the Superlative Stakes at NewmarketCredit: Edward Whitaker

Back or avoid?

Looked well above average when bolting up in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes last time and was a winner here the start before.
BACK

City Of Troy16:00 Curragh

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Jky: Tnr: A P O'Brien

Read these next:

'City Of Troy looks to be a serious horse and that makes it all the more interesting' - key Irish Champions Festival quotes 

Confirmed runners and riders for Saturday's Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown 

Who will win the 2023 Irish Champion Stakes based on previous trends? 

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