Who will win the 2023 Qipco 1,000 Guineas based on previous trends?

The second Classic of the season, the Qipco 1,000 Guineas, takes place on Sunday at Newmarket. We've taken a look at previous trends to try to help pick the winner.

3.40 Newmarket Sunday: Qipco 1,000 Guineas racecard and betting

Rating

The 1,000 Guineas is often won by a top-class horse and in nine of the past ten years the winner has been officially rated 106 or higher. The only one to buck that trend was the Richard Hannon-trained Billesdon Brook, who was rated 99 when landing the Newmarket Classic in 2018.

Out of those nine, only six of them were rated 110 and higher, with Minding achieving the highest rating of 120 for her success in 2016.

Ante-post favourite Tahiyra, Meditate, Lezoo and Mawj are the four in the race who are rated at 110 or higher, so another high-class running is expected.

Form

Running in a Listed or Group contest before a Classic can only enhance a horse's chance and the previous ten winners have finished in the top two at that level.

15 of the 22 entries for Sunday have achieved this feat, with Tahiyra, Meditate and Lezoo all being successful at the highest level in their most recent appearance.

This trend could be a slight concern for Godolphin supporters, who last enjoyed a win in the race with Blue Bunting in 2011. The Charlie Appleby-trained Dream Of Love has yet to race at Listed or Group level, but fellow Godolphin contenders Fairy Cross and Mawj have done so and both have won so they could be in the mix.

In addition, six of the past ten winners have all raced in Group 1 company and seven of this year's current field have done that.

Fitness

A prep run of some kind is not a priority, but six of the last ten winners since 2013 had already turned out that season.

Leading contender Tahiyra has only featured twice under the guidance of Dermot Weld, but her last outing came when successful at Group 1 level in the Moyglare at the Curragh in September. She beat Meditate, who subsequently scored at the Breeders' Cup and reopposes again.

Both Mammas Girl and Remarquee made a winning return to action in their respective races last month, while Mawj scored twice in Meydan during the early part of the year.

Mawj: won twice in Meydan during the early part of 2023Credit: Edward Whitaker

Distance

The record of horses winning over at least 7f reads better than those not successful, with eight of the past nine winners ticking that box. Mother Earth won in 2021 having not previously struck beyond 6f.

Fourteen of the 22 entries have all enjoyed a win over the 7f trip and this proves the majority of the field should be able to handle the extra furlong.

Draw

There appears to be more of a trend with horses being more successful when drawn low in the 1,000 Guineas, with eight of the last ten winners all coming from stall nine or lower.

Love (2020) and Legatissimo (2015) were drawn in stalls 14 and 13 respectively, but this factor will depend on how many line up in the Classic and how the races earlier on the card have played out.

Verdict

Mawj is one of the major players for the 1,000 Guineas given that she hits each trend and comes into this Classic on the back of a career-best performance based on Racing Post Ratings.

The Saeed bin Suroor-trained filly won both of her races when in Meydan and took her record to 4-7 with that double success. She has won and placed third in two attempts on the Rowley Mile and goes into the race officially rated 110, so if she retains her ability she could run a big race again.

Mawj15:40 Newmarket

View Racecard

Jky: Oisin Murphy Tnr: Saeed bin Suroor

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