Should the recent history of short-priced favourites in the 2,000 Guineas concern City Of Troy backers?

The Qipco 2,000 Guineas market has been dominated by City Of Troy ever since he powered to victory in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes under Ryan Moore last October. But the race has not been overly kind to short-priced favourites since 2000. Fifteen colts have been sent off shorter than 2-1, and ten were beaten, including City Of Troy's stablemate Auguste Rodin on this day 12 months ago. Here we look back at the highs and lows experienced by backers of Guineas favourites the market thought could not be beaten.

2011 Frankel won at 1-2f

If you want to take a positive view of the idea that some horses are so far clear of the opposition and the trainer just needs to avoid the horsebox breaking down, then Frankel is the first among equals when it comes to 2,000 Guineas favourites. Tom Queally booted the 1-2 favourite into an early advantage he never relinquished in a brutal display of galloping which left his rivals and those watching gasping in disbelief.

2013 Dawn Approach won at 11-8f

Dawn Approach doubled-up in the National Stakes and the Dewhurst at two, and like Frankel – or at least in as much as any horse can be compared to him – he didn't give his supporters too many anxious moments when flashing home five lengths clear of Glory Awaits. In doing so he avenged the defeat of his sire New Approach, who went down to Henrythenavigator in a titanic battle for the 2008 Guineas, before going on to land the Derby and the Champion Stakes. 

2016 Air Force Blue beaten at 4-5f

The son of War Front swept all before him at two, with a Group 1 hat-trick in the Phoenix Stakes, the National Stakes and the Dewhurst, before spending the winter as the unchallenged market leader. Unfortunately the rest of his class had more than caught up with this precocious student by the spring of his three-year-old career, and Air Force Blue beat just one horse home when trailing in 15 lengths behind Galileo Gold.  He was well beaten in his final three starts and after six seasons at stud in Kentucky he was relocated to stand in South Korea. 

Air Force Blue lands the Dewhurst Stakes under Ryan MooreCredit: Mark Cranham (Getty Images)

2020 Pinatubo beaten at 5-6f

Not every beaten shorty has suffered the same ignominy as Air Force Blue, with eight of the ten on the list below going on to secure a Group 1 victory in their career. Pinatubo was champion juvenile and the winter Guineas favourite going into the Covid-affected spring of 2020, and finally ran third to Kameko on June 6, five weeks after the traditional date for the Classic. He then ran into Palace Pier in the St James's Palace Stakes before gaining his three-year-old Group 1 back at seven furlongs in the Prix Jean Prat. 

Winners and Losers

Shortest-priced favourites to be beaten in the 2,000 Guineas this century

2016 Air Force Blue 4-5f
2020 Pinatubo 5-6f
2010 St Nicholas Abbey Evens fav
2022 Native Trail 5-4f
2005 Dubawi 11-8f
2008 New Approach 11-8f
2002 Hawk Wing 6-4f
2014 Kingman 6-4f
2023 Auguste Rodin 13-8f
2004 One Cool Cat 15-8f

Shortest-priced favourites to win the 2,000 Guineas this century

2011 Frankel 1-2f
2013 Dawn Approach 11-8f
2017 Churchill 6-4f
2006 George Washington 6-4f
2012 Camelot 15-8f

Read more . . .

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