2024 Qipco 1,000 Guineas contenders: assessing the key runners for the big race on Sunday
The Qipco 1,000 Guineas (3.40) takes place at Newmarket on Sunday in the second Classic of the season. Here we go through the form of the leading contenders and produce a verdict on who will come out on top . . .
Fallen Angel
Form: 1211-
Strengths: High-class juvenile who concluded her season with a Group 1 victory in the Moyglare Stakes at the Curragh, where she beat her main Guineas rival Ylang Ylang by 13 and a half lengths. That followed an impressive win in the Sweet Solera, where again she had the field well strung out, and her trainer Karl Burke has been bullish in the build-up to the race and rates Fallen Angel as one of the best he has trained.
Weaknesses: Ylang Ylang clearly didn't run her race in the Moyglare and there isn't a lot between them on their form. Fallen Angel's only defeat came on soft ground so any rain might be of a slight concern.
Odds: 7-2f
Ylang Ylang
Form: 11931-
Strengths: Looked a really promising juvenile, bolting up in a maiden before winning a Group 3 in fine style from a subsequent Group 1 runner-up. Clearly wasn't right when last of nine behind Fallen Angel and wasn't seen to best effect when third in the Rockel, but righted that when running out an impressive winner of the Fillies' Mile over this course and distance, and that experience should hold her in good stead here. She also looks the type to be better at three.
Weaknesses: Has to prove that her poor runs in the Moyglare and Rockfel were nothing short of blips and her breeding suggests she will get a lot further than this so she might lack the gears of a speedier type like Fallen Angel. She also has 4lb to find with Fallen Angel on ratings.
Odds: 4-1
Dance Sequence
Form: 11-2
Strengths: Won her two starts as a juvenile in cosy fashion. Was beaten at odds on on her reappearance in the Nell Gwyn, but she was doing all her best work at the finish and the step up to a mile should be in her favour. Top connections and a good pedigree so would be foolish to dismiss her on the back of one defeat.
Weaknesses: She may well have shaped well in the Nell Gwyn, but you'd expect a potential Classic winner to be classy enough to get the job done in a trial like that.
Odds: 5-1
Ramatuelle
Form: 12112-2
Strengths: Talented juvenile last season, winning a Group 2 and 3 and was just touched off by Vandeek in the Group 1 Prix Morny over 6f. Her win in the Robert Papin at Chantilly was particularly impressive. Was beaten at odds on in a Group 3 on her reappearance but that should bring her forward and she is bang there with anything in the race on figures.
Weaknesses: Has been beaten as many times as she has won and she is not a certain stayer. Still has to prove she has trained on.
Odds: 10-1
How about the remainder?
Pretty Crystal won the Nell Gwyn so it would be foolish to dismiss her. She was unlucky on a number of occasions last season but the step up to a mile here might just stretch her.
See The Fire finished second in the May Hill and third in the Fillies' Mile and looks sure to improve as a three-year-old being by Sea The Stars.
Darnation has beaten Pretty Crystal and See The Fire in commanding style and is a monster price (40-1) should she turn up. She wouldn't want it too fast so would need the rain to come but there is some forecast.
Verdict
This looks more open than the betting suggests so I don't think I'd want to be taking a short price about any of the top three in the market. Ramatuelle has clocked the best RPR out of everything in the race and, although she is unraced over a mile, being by Justify there is every chance she will get it. I was hugely impressed with her comeback run, despite defeat, as she settled much better.
I can't resist an each-way play on Darnation at a huge price. She will hold a stamina edge over some of this field if the ground has soft in the description.
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