Who wins the 2022 Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe based on previous trends?

The Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (3.05) is one of the world's greatest races that unearths a champion. We have looked back at a number of factors to see who may win Sunday's Group 1 showpiece.

Ratings

In the last ten years, the average Arc-winning Racing Post Rating has been 126 and only four of those winners have scored with a lower RPR.

The lowest-winning RPR in the last decade was Enable's second triumph in 2018 (122), while the highest was Treve's stunning first win in 2014 (131).

Of the leading ten contenders in the betting, only Torquator Tasso and globetrotter Mishriff have matched or bettered that RPR.

Torquator Tasso hit 126 in his Arc victory last year, while Mishriff registered 128 when storming to success in the 2021 Juddmonte International.

Age

Four-year-olds have been the leading force in the Arc over the last ten years, with six of those winners being that age. 2019 winner Waldgeist was the only five-year-old to win in that period, while Enable (2017), Golden Horn (2015) and Treve (2013) were the three-year-olds to win.

Japanese raider Titleholder is set to lead the four-year-old team this year, while Alpinista, Torquator Tasso and Mishriff are the five-year-olds with solid claims.

Luxembourg (red and blue cap), Onesto (purple cap) and Vadeni (green): among the Classic team in this year's ArcCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

Among the Classic generation, current favourite Luxembourg, Vadeni, Onesto and Irish Derby winner Westover will bid to try to improve their record in the race.

Distance

Being proven at the 1m4f trip of the Arc is crucial, given that all of the last ten winners had won over the distance previously, with 2012 winner Solemia the only one to not score over the trip at Group 1 level.

That works significantly against leading contenders Luxembourg and Vadeni, who are set to step up to 1m4f for the first time, while it plays to the strengths of the likes of Alpinista, Onesto and Westover, who all have top-level winning form over the distance this year.

Odds

The Arc has become a difficult race for favourites to win – only Enable obliged as market leader in both 2017 and 2018 in the last ten years.

The biggest shock came last year when Torquator Tasso won at 72-1, while 33-1 shot Solemia (2012) and 13-1 Waldgeist (2019) have been other big-priced winners in the last decade.

Verdict

The one who best fits the trends is last year's hero Torquator Tasso, who looks well placed to join an elite few as a back-to-back winner of the prestigious race.

That feat has already been done twice in the last decade by Enable (2017, 2018) and Treve (2013, 2014) and given he fits the perfect RPR, relishes the trip and could have testing ground in his favour, he has a strong chance in a race he's likely to have been primed for all season.

Three-year-olds Onesto and Westover could be set to outrun their odds given what they've achieved at the trip this season and cannot be discounted.

2022 Arc offers

• Paddy Power are giving away free bets to new and existing customers, and all you need is an account. Sign up here.
• Sky Bet are offering new customers free bets when they sign up. You can get them, along with money-back specials and extra places, here.
• Betfair have lots of offers, extra places and money-back offers. Sign up for a new account here.
• To get a free bet from Ladbrokes today, simply sign up to a new account here.
• Don't have a Coral account? They have an offer for new customers here.
• bet365 have a new customer offer available. Sign up here.
• New William Hill customers can claim free bets here and benefit from their money-back offers here.
• If you're a new customer, Tote will give you a free bet. Sign up here to claim.

Read this next:

2022 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe: the runners, the odds, the verdict

Sign up to receive On The Nose, our essential daily newsletter, from the Racing Post. Your unmissable morning feed, direct to your email inbox every morning