Who will win the 2023 Grand National based on previous trends?

Jump racing's most famous contest, the Randox Grand National (5.15), takes place at Aintree on Saturday. We've taken a look at previous runnings and picked out the key factors to help find the winner.

5.15 Aintree (Saturday, April 15): Randox Grand National racecard and betting

Age

After Pineau De Re became the fifth veteran in a row to win the race in 2014, the Grand National has been dominated by horses who are aged either eight or nine, with six of the last seven winners falling in that category.

That bodes well for Corach Rambler, Le Milos, Longhouse Poet and Our Power, as well as last year's hero Noble Yeats, who became the first seven-year-old to land the race since before the Second World War.

Bogskar in 1940 had been the last horse to score at seven before Noble Yeats' 50-1 success last season, offering some small hope to the Willie Mullins-trained pair of Gaillard Du Mesnil and Mr Incredible.

Weight

Ted Walsh was unimpressed with the weight allocated to Any Second Now, who has finished third and second in the last two runnings, which is hardly surprising given that no winner this century has carried more than 11st 9lb to victory. Ted Walsh's topweight is off 11st 12lb while it has to be a concern for Noble Yeats and Galvin, who are shouldering just 1lb less.

At the other end of the scale, not since Bobbyjo struck in 1999 has a winner carried less than 10st 3lb, which raises potential question marks over Hill Sixteen, Gabbys Cross, Recite A Prayer, Eva's Oscar and Our Power as well as the rest below them were they to get into the race.

Form

Seven of the last nine winners had already got their head in front in the season of their Aintree victory, which is not a good sign for Mr Incredible, Vanillier, Lifetime Ambition, Royal Pagaille, Roi Mage, The Big Breakaway and Mister Coffey.

Three of the last five winners came into Aintree off the back of a win which could bode well for Corach Rambler, Delta Work, Gaillard Du Mesnil, Any Second Now, Longhouse Poet, Our Power, Ain't That A Shame and Coko Beach.

Experience

Nine of the last 12 winners had never run around the Grand National track including the winners of the last two runnings, so a lack of experience over Aintree's famous fences is not necessarily a negative for Corach Rambler, Gaillard Du Mesnil, Mr Incredible, Le Milos, Our Power and plenty more further down the betting.

Five of the last ten winners had won over the National fences or recorded a top-six finish in the Coral Gold Cup, Scottish or Irish Nationals. That is another boost for Le Milos and Corach Rambler, who were first and fourth in Newbury’s Coral Gold Cup in November.

Festival form

Cheltenham Festival form has to be respected given that half of the last ten winners have ran at the festival on their final start before triumphing in the National. Noble Yeats was ninth in the Ultima Handicap Chase en route to success at Aintree, which bodes well for this year's winner Corach Rambler.

Delta Work is attempting to emulate Tiger Roll by following up his win in the Cross Country with victory in the National, something his former stablemate managed in 2018 and 2019 for Gordon Elliott and Gigginstown House Stud.

Delta Work (right): beat fellow National entry Galvin last time and is one of three horses who could attempt to follow up a Cheltenham Festival winCredit: Edward Whitaker

Many Clouds was sixth behind Coneygree in the 2015 Gold Cup before winning the National on his next start which is encouraging for Noble Yeats, who stayed on for fourth in last month's Gold Cup.

Pineau De Re was third in the Pertemps Final before successfully going back over the larger obstacles at Aintree in 2014, demonstrating that a prep run over hurdles can work. Lifetime Ambition was third in a Thurles hurdle race on the Saturday of Cheltenham Festival week with Jessica Harrington's eight-year-old the shortest-priced contender to have gone down that route at 33-1.

Ballabriggs won his National a year after landing the 2010 Kim Muir, with Mr Incredible (third), Dunboyne (fourth) and Defi Bleu (fifth) potentially representing that race in Merseyside on April 15. The other festival chase restricted to amateur riders; the National Hunt Chase, was won by Gaillard Du Mesnil.

That race has produced the dual National winner Tiger Roll as well as Teaforthree, Cause Of Causes and Rathvinden, who all went on to be placed in a future Grand National having won the National Hunt Chase. Galvin won the first race to be staged over the reduced trip of 3m6f in 2021, so it is perhaps not a trend to look out for quite so much nowadays with the shorter distance.

Hedgehunter and Neptune Collognes placed in Gold Cups as well as winning the National and even Rule The World, one of the less heralded winners in recent years (2016), finished second to The New One in a Grade 1 novice hurdle at the 2013 festival.

Festival form is clearly a good angle and it will be fascinating to see how those who ran at Cheltenham perform at Aintree this year, given that there is an extra week between the two major spring meetings due to the positioning of Easter in the calendar.

Verdict

Corach Rambler arrives off the back of winning the Ultima Handicap Chase for the second year in a row, the same race that Noble Yeats ran in before landing last year's National. Lucinda Russell knows what it takes to win the race, having been successful in 2017 with One For Arthur, and her nine-year-old is the right sort of age as well as being perfectly weighted at 10st 5lb. A lack of experience over Aintree's National fences is not a negative for the ante-post market leader and favourites have an okay record considering the field size and usual in-running drama to navigate, with six favourites or joint-favourites obliging since 1996.

Corach Rambler17:15 Aintree

View Racecard

Jky: Tnr: Lucinda Russell

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