Who will win the 2022 Grand National based on previous trends?

Jump racing's most famous contest, the Randox Grand National (5.15), takes place at Aintree on Saturday. We've taken a look at previous runnings and picked out the factors to help find the winner.

5.15 Aintree Saturday: Randox Grand National racecard and betting

Age

Choosing the Grand National winner is notoriously tricky but one way to whittle down the 40-runner field is to exclude any horses younger than eight and older than 11, such as Noble Yeats and Anibale Fly.

The last nine winners were all within that age bracket and the top five in the market, headed by Irish-trained contenders Any Second Now, who finished third last year, and Delta Work all fit the bill.

The last 12-year-old to land the National was Amberleigh House in 2004, while there has not been a seven-year-old winner since 1940.

Weight

Only seven horses have carried more than 11st 5lb to victory since 1945, including Many Clouds in 2015, which is bad news for leading contenders Delta Work (11st 9lb) and Any Second Now (11st 8lb).

The marathon favours those with low weights. Six of the last nine winners carried no more than 10st 13lb. On this trend, the Ciaran Murphy-trained Enjoy D'Allen (10st 11lb) comes into contention.

Snow Leopardess: winner of the Becher ChaseCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

So too does the leading British contender and Becher Chase winner Snow Leopardess, who is set to carry only 10st 9lb.

Form

The trends suggest you do not want to back a horse arriving in bad form and eight of the last nine winners finished in the top three at least once in their previous three starts.

Any Second Now and Delta Work won last time, while Escaria Ten was second in the Grade 3 Bobbyjo Chase. Snow Leopardess is in excellent form, having won her last three.

It raises questions about last year's winner Minella Times, who has run only twice since Aintree. He fell in the John Durkan on his first start of the season and was pulled up last time.

Experience

Experience is very important and five of the last nine winners had won or been placed over the National fences or recorded a top-six finish in the Ladbrokes Trophy, Scottish, Welsh or Irish Nationals.

That is a welcome boost to the chances of Minella Times, as well as Any Second Now and Burrows Saint, who finished third and fourth in last season's Grand National.

Any Second Now (right): beat Escaria Ten in the Bobbyjo ChaseCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

Cloth Cap, who was pulled up in last season's race, is not without a chance after finishing sixth in the Ladbrokes Trophy in November.

Festival form

Four of the last nine Nationals have gone to horses who took part at the Cheltenham Festival, with one running in the Pertemps Final, one in the Gold Cup and the popular dual winner Tiger Roll having taken in the Cross Country Chase.

Delta Work arrives with the best Cheltenham form, having beaten Tiger Roll in the Cross Country for Gordon Elliott. The trainer is also set to run Mount Ida, who contested the Mares' Chase at the festival.

This trend also brings Run Wild Fred into contention after his second behind Stattler in the National Hunt Chase. He is available at 25-1.

2022 Grand National at Aintree: the runners, the odds, the verdict

Verdict

Narrow preference is for Burrows Saint, who finished fourth off the same mark last season. The Willie Mullins-trained nine-year-old is a general 20-1 chance.

His age is not a problem on the trends and he carries 11st 5lb, which should not be insurmountable if he is able to bounce back from his disappointing show when a remote third behind Any Second Now last time.

Burrows Saint has mostly run well this season with this race in mind and his experience of running in the National stands him in good stead, especially given the recent record of Irish trainers in the race.

2022 Grand National festival offers

• Join Paddy Power and back one horse and get another one free – plus they are paying six places on the Grand National. Sign up here.
• Sky Bet are paying an industry-leading seven places on the Grand National. Anyone with an account can claim these, but sign up here if you don't have an account.
• New Betfair customers can get a free bet when they sign up and also get six places on the Grand National. Sign up for a new account here.
• Ladbrokes are going six places on the Grand National. Sign up for a new account here.
• Coral are paying six places on the Grand National. Not got an account? Sign up here to benefit from the extra places here.
• bet365 have a new customer offer available when you sign up to a new account. You can also claim six places on the Grand National. Get started here.
• New William Hill customers can claim a free bet for Sunday if they bet on Saturday and also get six places on the Grand National here.
• 888 Sport have free bets for all new customers. Sign up here. New and existing customers can get six places on the Grand National.
• If you're a new customer, Tote will give you a free bet. Sign up here to claim and bet on the Grand National.

Read these next:

Racing Post tipsters predict the first four home in the Grand National

Big-race tips: why this horse can win the Grand National at Aintree

Grand National steamers: five horses who could shorten before the big race

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