What recent history tells us about the rating needed to win the Arc

With the defection of Baaeed, this year’s likely line-up for the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (3.00) has a degree of familiarity about it.

There are plenty of very good horses with just a few pounds between them and few no-hopers to make up the numbers.

But what sort rating is the winner likely to need to run to? Is an apparently disappointing prep-run the end? And how much improvement can we expect from those who have yet to achieve such a figure?

The ten-year average winning Racing Post Rating for the Arc is 126, with the extremes of performance in that period the 131 of Treve’s scintillating 2013 victory and the 122 posted by Enable off a rushed preparation in 2018.

So how does this year’s potential field measure up on what they have already achieved? I have omitted horses with an entry but not under consideration, such as the 124-rated Mishriff.

Titleholder's 125 for winning the Takarazuka Kinen is the highest RPR posted this year among the likely runners in the ArcCredit: Masakazu Takahashi

Leading Arc entries by Racing Post Rating

126
Torquator Tasso

125
Bay Bridge
Titleholder

124
Luxembourg*
Vadeni*
Westover*

123
Adayar
Onesto*

122
Broome
Verry Elleegant(needs to be supplemented)
Deep Bond

121
Alpinista

120
Grand Glory

119
Tuesday*(needs to be supplemented)
Stay Foolish

118
Do Deuce*

117
La Petite Coco
Mendocino

116
La Parisienne
Simca Mille* (needs to be supplemented)

115
Bubble Gift

114
Sweet Lady (needs to be supplemented)

113
Lassaut*

Italics denote filly/mare due to receive 3lb allowance in the Arc

*denotes three-year-old due to receive 6lb weight-for-age allowance

Major improvement is possible

A year ago Torquator Tasso put 8lb on his previous best figure achieved when finishing runner-up to Alpinista and then winning the Grosser Preis von Baden.

That is clearly a sign of major improvement, along with perhaps recognition that his German form might have been taken a little lightly.

But three Arc winners this decade have made bigger leaps from their warm-up – two of whom also improved on their personal bests by 12 and 13lb respectively.

Ten years ago Solemia improved a remarkable 14lb from her prep run in the Prix Vermeille, and her winning RPR of 124 was 12lb superior to anything she had ever achieved.

Treve left her previous form in the dust on both occasions she won the ArcCredit: Edward Whitaker

Treve was unbeaten heading into the 2013 Arc, having won Group 1s in each of her previous two starts, yet she improved 11lb on her previous best in the Prix de Diane and 13lb on her 'prep' in the Vermeille.

She managed exactly the same improvement a year later when bouncing back from an underwhelming RPR of 113 when fourth in the Vermeille to storm to a second Arc victory, posting a figure of 126.

Such leaps matter in particular to French chances in this year’s Arc, because the bottom five figures in our RPR table belong to horses that ran on Arc Trials day.

With the exception of Bubble Gift, the other four all ran their seasonal best figure in their trial at Longchamp, meaning they would need to show at least Torquator Tasso levels of improvement – if not Treve or Solemia – to win an average Arc.

But as we have seen before, it can and does happen.

Those quantum leaps in the winner’s form came in soft or heavy ground Arcs. Should there be rain in Paris before October 2, such conditions could be a potential catalyst for one or more horses to take a big step forward.

Taking the three placed horses from each of the last ten Arcs, 15 out of 30 improved 5lb or more on their most recent run. Nine of them were trained in France, five of them by Andre Fabre, who may not end up fielding a runner this year.

Beware the 'now' horse

The most obvious reason so many horses post personal bests in the Arc is because it is the deepest opposition they have faced.

Treve had never raced against colts before the 2013 running and ended up trouncing three top-class horses in Orfevre, Intello and Kizuna.

Many British and Irish racing fans grew up on Arcs won by French-trained horses who appeared to come out of nowhere, bouncing out of the trials and straight into the winners’ circle in the manner of Carnegie in 1994.

Putting aside the fact that we now have access to a lot more foreign racing, the last ten years would suggest caution when it comes to a horse that appears in the picture relatively late in the season.

Of the 30 placed horses in the last ten editions of the race, only seven had recorded a career-high figure on their previous start.

Of those seven, only two actually won.

Again Torquator Tasso is the poster boy here, while Found also triumphed in the Arc off the back of an improved effort when chasing home Almanzor in a stellar Irish Champion Stakes.

As we saw in last week’s Road to the Arc, the Irish Champion Stakes is becoming a key factor for the Arc in comparison to the other trials.

Luxembourg (blue sleeves) and Onesto (right) both ran career high figures in the Irish Champion StakesCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

Luxembourg has been denied the chance to post a serious RPR by injury this season, but his 124 at Leopardstown was still a 6lb rise on the figure he ran in the 2,000 Guineas.

The presence of Onesto, Vadeni and Mishriff allowed him to improve his profile to the point where, were you to add the 6lb he will receive from the leading older horses such as Titleholder and Torquator Tasso, he rightfully comes out on top of the file.

Who knows? If 1m4f suits him even better than the ten furlongs of the Irish Champion, then the sky might be the limit.

However, it is worth bearing in mind that he would be atypical, given how eight of the last ten winners had a better performance in their locker than the one they produced in their prep.

Similar comments apply to the Leopardstown runner-up Onesto, who we know stays a mile and a half but built on his Grand Prix de Paris victory to the tune of 5lb on Racing Post Ratings.

The key headline from our analysis of the record of the various trials last week was that the Irish Champion has replaced the Prix Niel as the first port of call when looking for the Arc winner.

The caveat this year is the danger that either Luxembourg or Onesto did a little too much at Leopardstown to progress again at Longchamp.

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