Grand National analysis: the last-minute moves that could have a major effect

The late moves around the 40 mark in the Grand National field, the will-he-won't-hes of late declarations, can be overhyped in the media, a bit like our equivalent of transfer deadline day. This year, the last-minute revelations that Caribean Boy and Farclas would not be declared could prove to have a significant effect.

The two beneficiaries were Eclair Surf and Fortescue, who will be numbers 39 and 40 on Saturday's racecard. Both horses are 4lb well in on their allotted BHA marks so would naturally be of some interest from a form perspective. Crucial to both, even more so than for the average Grand National runner, will be the run to around first Valentine's.

Eclair Surf has elevated his form on his last two runs, beating Ultima second Gericault Roque by 13 lengths in the Classic Chase then giving Scottish National winner Win My Wings something approaching a race in the Eider. Those efforts have been built on forceful tactics and bold jumping and, while that is often the way to go in the National, the execution is far more difficult.