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Team behind new Grand National favourite 'really excited' and 'have done everything we can' after Inothewayurthinkin scratched
'If the British handicapper reassessed the race now he’d certainly have him 6lb or so higher, so we’re in a good place'
Intense Raffles is the new Randox Grand National favourite after it was revealed Inothewayurthinkin will head to Punchestown for the Ladbrokes-sponsored Gold Cup.
Last season’s Irish Grand National hero is 7-1 with official betting partner William Hill to repeat the efforts of Bobbyjo, Numbersixvalverde and, most recently, I Am Maximus, all of whom followed up at Aintree 12 months after victory at Fairyhouse.
Intense Raffles is number 21 on the revised start list following Tuesday’s scratching deadline, at which the initial entry of 81 horses was reduced to 67.
Anthony Bromley, racing manager to owners Simon Munir and Isaac Souede, said Intense Raffles was pleasing trainer Tom Gibney, although he admitted their chances would be further enhanced were conditions to ease.
“It would be quite nice if the rain started to come, everywhere’s watering at the moment and places are getting good to firm in the going description,” said Bromley. “That wouldn’t be ideal, but we can rely on Aintree to keep it on the softer side of good. Intense Raffles loves soft ground.”
With topweight I Am Maximus still on track for a defence of his crown on April 5, the weights remain unaltered and Intense Raffles is currently set to shoulder 10st10lb.
“Tom’s very happy with the way he’s come out of the Bobbyjo Chase and if the British handicapper reassessed the race now he’d certainly have him 6lb or so higher, so we’re in a good place,” said Bromley. “There’s a lot of things that we’ve got to get through between now and then and of course the race itself.
“We didn’t run him over fences after the Irish National until the weights were published. We’ve done everything we can in terms of the plan, Tom’s done a brilliant job, and JJ [Slevin] is very excited about the ride. We’re all really looking forward to Aintree.”
Sixth-placed Royale Pagaille is the only horse to have run in last Friday’s Gold Cup to be left in the race, with Gentlemansgame (third), Monty’s Star (fourth) and The Real Whacker (fifth) all scratched alongside Inothewayurthinkin. Other prominent names missing include last year’s joint-favourite Limerick Lace and Galvin, who finished fourth behind I Am Maximus in 2024.
At present all horses allotted 10st 7lb or above are guaranteed a run. Six horses due to carry 10st 6lb currently straddle the 34-horse cutoff line with only two allowed to run if no other horses above them were removed.
Among those towards the head of the market who were previously outside the safety limit, another Gavin Cromwell entry, 2023 runner-up Vanillier, now looks a near certainty to get in and is no bigger than 16-1.
Meetingofthewaters, who represents last season’s winning combination of JP McManus and Willie Mullins, is now number 32 on the list and is a best-priced 25-1 having finished seventh to his stablemate last April.
Mullins has nine entries, of whom only Scottish National winner Macdermott and Spanish Harlem are outside the top 34.
All five of Paul Nicholls’ contenders are safely inside the cut, with Stay Away Fay the lowest-weighted at number 29.
By contrast, among three-time National winner Gordon Elliott’s ten potential runners, only Conflated, Fil D’Or and Coko Beach – all of whom can be backed at 100-1 – are certain to get a run, while 33-1 shot Three Card Brag is among those on 10st 5lb who will need further defections at the six-day confirmation stage on March 31, or else at final declarations on April 3.
Grand National latest betting
Randox Grand National (4.00 Aintree, April 5)
Paddy Power: 6 Intense Raffles, 7 Iroko, 8 I Am Maximus, 10 Stumptown, 12 Vanillier, 14 Perceval Legallois, 16 Nick Rockett, 20 Kandoo Kid, Meetingofthewaters, 25 Hewick, Hyland, 28 Grangeclare West, 33 bar
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Grand National: betting analysis
By Keith Melrose, betting editor
It is of course big news that overwhelming Grand National favourite Inothewayurthinkin will not bid to do the double following his Gold Cup win. From a betting perspective, the revelation is a little less seismic.
The big-picture view is that the Grand National market went haywire for three to four days, when it contained an obvious handicap aberration. It will now revert to its previous form, with Intense Raffles a much more familiar price for a National favourite at around 6-1.
Fair play to you if you decided that the weekend just gone was the time to play in the race, because if your horse has not been scratched then it is bound to shorten up based on this news. Whatever edge existed as layers ducked Inothewayurthinkin has now gone.
A scan down the market brings you to one of the reasons that this decision was made easier for Inothewayurthinkin's connections. Owner JP McManus still has three of the top five and four of the top eight in the betting. Trainer Gavin Cromwell's Stumptown is one of the leading candidates to spoil McManus's party.
As a bettor, I am cursing my lack of foresight in not investing around Inothewayurthinkin while an unusual Grand National market existed. At the same time I am relieved I no longer have to think of the race from two angles: the traditional way and without the favourite. The Grand National has reverted to its classic form and is a more inviting betting heat for it.
Grand National: list of horses scratched
Envoi Allen
Inothewayurthinkin
Gentlemansgame
Monty’s Star
The Real Whacker
Galvin
Trelawne
Limerick Lace
Pinkerton
Git Maker
Gericault Roque
Not qualified
French Dynamite
Zanahiyr
Placenet
Read more:
Five beaten horses from the Cheltenham Festival who it can pay to follow at Aintree and Punchestown
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