Assessing Willie Mullins's nine Grand National contenders as trainer seeks a second winner of the Aintree showpiece
Willie Mullins has nine horses left in the next Saturday's Randox Grand National with all but one guaranteed to get a run. We assess who is likeliest of the Closutton contingent to provide Mullins with a second victory in Aintree's showpiece race, 19 years on from Hedgehunter's success in 2005.
I Am Maximus
Gave 12lb and a 14-length beating to Vanillier in the Bobbyjo Chase and meets last year's Grand National runner-up on 4lb better terms here. That Fairyhouse Grade 3 has thrown up some strong subsequent Grand National performances in recent years with 2022 winner Any Second Now chasing home Noble Yeats at Aintree on his next start.
Rathvinden landed the Bobbyjo for Mullins in 2019 before finishing third in Tiger Roll's second Grand National victory and I Am Maximus could go two places better, having demonstrated an abundance of stamina when winning last year's Irish equivalent.
He is 10lb higher here, but deservedly so having since landed the Grade 1 Drinmore Novice Chase. The fact that all three of his wins over fences have been at Fairyhouse is a slight concern, but he won twice at left-handed tracks at the start of his career, including when beating subsequent Grade 1 winner My Drogo when making a successful debut in a bumper at Cheltenham.
Mr Incredible
Was still travelling well when unseating Brian Hayes a good distance after successfully navigating the Canal Turn for the second time due to his saddle slipping. On that evidence, Mr Incredible took to the fences and his second off top weight on his first start since in the Midlands National was an encouraging return.
He needs to avoid the dreaded bounce factor, having produced an excellent performance on his first start for 336 days at Uttoxeter, but the 28-day turnaround may not be an issue when looking at recent winners of the Grand National. Four of the last five winners had run during Cheltenham Festival week as Mr Incredible has and unlike some of his stablemates, stamina is not a concern as he was placed in the Classic Chase and Kim Muir last year.
Stattler
He admittedly needs to show more than he has done on his last four starts but the nine-year-old was identified as the pick of the Mullins rides by the trainer's son and assistant Patrick.
It is easy to see the case for Stattler given that he would receive 8lb off topweight Conflated, and he was second to dual Gold Cup winner Galopin Des Champs in last year's Irish equivalent. A reproduction of that form could make Stattler potentially well treated and the longest trip he has encountered, 3m6f, yielded an eight-length victory at the 2022 Cheltenham Festival.
That was in a six-runner novice event though and he needs to prove he can do it in a much bigger field in handicap company.
Adamantly Chosen
He may not run as he is also entered in the Topham, Scottish Grand National and bet365 Gold Cup. However, if Adamantly Chosen was to turn up, I'd fancy him to reverse the form of his heavy defeat behind Meetingofthewaters at Leopardstown in December.
Adamantly Chosen was the choice of Paul Townend on that occasion which was understandable given his novice form behind multiple Grade 1 winners Gerri Colombe and Mighty Potter last season. Adamantly Chosen built on that promise when beating Roi Mage by 14 lengths at Down Royal on St Patrick's Day and is only 4lb worse off with that fellow Grand National entry here.
As we have established, running during Cheltenham Festival week has been a key trend of winners of recent Grand National winners and given that his emphatic victory came over 3m2f, the longest distance he's encountered, on soft ground, it is reasonable to expect further improvement to come as he is upped in trip.
Meetingofthewaters
Finished a respectable third at last month's Cheltenham Festival in the Ultima, a race that both Noble Yeats and Corach Rambler contested before winning the National in the past two seasons.
However, Noble Yeats became the first seven-year-old since 1940 to win the Grand National and Meetingofthewaters is nowhere near as well handicapped as the 2022 winner as he attempts to emulate that feat. He is 11lb and 17lb worse off with Panda Boy and Adamantly Chosen respectively than when beating the pair at Leopardstown in December.
Capodanno
He is rated 1lb higher than when pulled up by Danny Mullins in last year's Grand National and is a highly doubtful stayer. The eight-year-old undeniably has a touch of class having won a Grade 1 at the Punchestown Festival as a novice but 3m1½f is the furthest he has won over.
That success came in the Cotswold Chase on Cheltenham Festival Trials day and given that he was fourth in the Ryanair Chase at the same track last time, a more conventional Graded race may be on the cards.
Glengouly
He is difficult to assess as only two of his 14 starts under rules have been over further than 2m4½f so he does not look an obvious National contender. Like Adamantly Chosen, he is entered in the Topham, Scottish Grand National and bet365 Gold Cup.
The Topham may be more likely as Paul Townend pulled him up on his first attempt over 3m at Navan in February last year. However, he was runner-up to Ain't That A Shame over 3m1f in the Thyestes at Gowran Park in January and is weighted to reverse form with the winner, who he would meet on 3lb better terms.
Janidil
Unlike some of his shorter-priced stablemates, the Grand National is Janidil's sole early-closer entry but he is difficult to fancy having been campaigned almost entirely over 2m4½f in recent seasons.
Janidil beat just one of his 11 rivals in the Stayers' Hurdle at Cheltenham last time and was pulled up on his last chasing start over 3m. He has never contested a handicap over fences but hardly looks well treated off a rating of 159 and I Am Maximus, Meetingofthewaters and Capodanno look more obvious chances for owner JP McManus.
Ontheropes
He needs 11 to come out to get a run and has been pulled up on two of his last three starts. Those non-completions came over 3m½f and 3m1f so his Topham entry looks more appealing given that he was second to dual Cheltenham Festival winner Monkfish off level weights the last time he tackled the 2m5f Topham trip.
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