After United's 50-1 second in 2019, has the market missed another Turf outsider?

Last year, tracking data sniffed out the potential in United ahead of the Breeders' Cup Turf (9.33). His monster stride, which was also on the slow side for a horse racing over 1m2f, was bound to suit a step up to 1m4f and he duly finished a head second at 50-1.

A year on there is a real sense of deja vu. Red King is an unconsidered 40-1 shot for the Turf with British bookmakers at the time of writing, yet he has recorded figures nearly as impressive at United's.

Furthermore, United (who is being treated with due respect this time) ties in with Red King's form. They met in the Del Mar Handicap in August, when Red King won by a fast-diminishing head.

To assume that United will turn the tables over a furlong further would be over-simplistic. For a start, Red King's cadence (2.16 strides per second) matches United's. He will be better over this longer trip. Red King also has a notably long gait. He cannot quite match the giraffe-like strides United takes, but striding over 26 feet is the mark of a horse with deep ability.

Red King's slightly shorter stride has a related upside. He has a bit more tactical speed than United, which shows up in peak cadence figures. Total Performance Data's sectionals at Del Mar are recorded each half-furlong and they show that Red King ran a much more inefficient race than United when they met. The replay clearly shows a big move down the back, the figures show he made up three lengths on par in the space of a furlong. When United, who ran pretty evenly, came back at him, that was more likely just Red King tying up as his earlier expenditure told.

There are tenets from classical form study that make Red King a little less exciting than United. He was carrying 6lb less at Del Mar, for a start, and is a six-year-old with 27 runs behind him. But he is improving and it seems that, for the second year running, a home-trained runner in the Turf has been priced up dismissively.

All data courtesy of Total Performance Data, whose tracking data covers more than 30 courses in Great Britain and North America