2023 Grand National: can Noble Yeats repeat last year's Aintree heroics?

Noble Yeats bids to emulate some of racing's greats by winning back-to-back Grand Nationals next Saturday, but just how good has his season been thus far, and how difficult is it to claim two Nationals?

5.15 Aintree, April 15: Randox Grand National racecard and betting

Is Noble Yeats a better horse this year?  

Yes. Sent off at 50-1 last year after finishing midfield in the Ultima at the Cheltenham Festival, he won the race off a mark of 147. This time around, he will race off 166, such has been his meteoric rise for Emmet Mullins. 

Pulled up at Auteuil on his return, he quickly bounced back by winning a Listed chase at Wexford before impressively quickening away with the Many Clouds Chase at Aintree in December. 

He has failed to score in his two most recent starts, but he shaped well on both occasions, including when finishing fast into fourth in last month's Cheltenham Gold Cup. Better than ever and still young at the age of eight, we may not have seen the best of him yet. 

Is weight going to be an anchor? 

It takes a very, very good horse to win the Grand National carrying a big weight. In the last ten runnings, only Tiger Roll and Many Clouds have won the National from a weight in the 11st range and since 2000 that figure improves to just seven horses. 

Tiger Roll: the last horse to do the Grand National doubleCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

For Noble Yeats to win, he will likely have to defy a weight of 11st 11lb and the last horse to do so was Freebooter way back in 1950. Historical trends are not always the best guide, but given the amount of data we have on the Grand National, the task of Noble Yeats is well documented. 

What about going back-to-back? 

Only two horses have won the National back-to-back since the second world war. Those horses were the legendary Red Rum and fans' favourite Tiger Roll, two horses who excelled over the National fences. 

As mentioned, Noble Yeats has time on his side and could improve even further, but he would need to beat a bunch of potentially well-handicapped horses carrying an enormous weight. 

Can stable form help? 

It is not the be-all and end-all but it can certainly help. It has been a fantastic season for Emmet Mullins, who has won three Grade 2s, including that aforementioned Many Clouds with Noble Yeats. 

Noble Yeats was impressive at Aintree earlier this seasonCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

More recently, he won the Johnstown Novice Hurdle at Naas with Corbetts Cross and the stable is operating at an 18 per cent strike-rate this season. 

Mullins is a very shrewd operator and he will have Noble Yeats at the peak of his powers. 

Is losing Waley-Cohen a big factor? 

Noble Yeats won the Grand National with the most successful jockey over the National fences, Sam Waley-Cohen. Although that win was Waley-Cohen's first National, he had previously won six races over the big fences, so his mastery of the course can only have helped. 

Sean Bowen: has tasted victory over the National fences beforeCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

That being said, Noble Yeats's new partner Sean Bowen is no stranger to the National course. He won last season's Topham Chase on Mac Tottie and has a 13 per cent strike-rate overall at Aintree, so do not be put off by the retirement of Waley-Cohen. 

Trainer's view 

Mullins told the Racing Post: "Noble Yeats seems to have come out of the Gold Cup well. He’s getting a bit wiser every time and seems to look after himself a bit more these days. He needs a bit more coaxing and Sean was under pressure and hard at it in the Gold Cup but when he got a bit of daylight he flew home. 

"I think he was last jumping the first fence in the Grand National last year and wasn’t in contention for the first two miles, which all worked out in his favour. There is no rule of thumb with him; it’s about getting the horse happy and confident with some space and getting the gaps.

"He will probably have to take the brave man’s route again to get that space, but he negotiated it last year and fingers crossed can do it again. I will be telling Sean to keep looking back at Sam’s ride last year!" 

Mullins is under no illusions of the task facing Noble Yeats: "He’s been highly tried this year. We went down the Gold Cup route and he has probably gone up a few pounds since then. Tiger Roll won his second National with 11st 5lb and we are trying to come back with 11st 11lb so everything is just going to be a bit harder."

Noble Yeats17:15 Aintree

View Racecard

Jky: Tnr: Emmet Mullins

Randox Grand National (5.15 Aintree, April 15)

Coral: 6 Corach Rambler, 8 Noble Yeats, 10 Delta Work, 12 Any Second Now, Gaillard Du Mesnil, 14 Mr Incredible, 16 Ain’t That A Shame, Galvin, Le Milos, Longhouse Poet, Vanillier, 20 Our Power, 25 Capodanno, Lifetime Ambition, The Big Breakaway, The Big Dog, The Shunter, 33 bar

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