Should you play or lay Willie Mullins' eight Dublin Racing Festival favourites?
Willie Mullins has an exceptionally strong Dublin Racing Festival team headed by the likes of Galopin Des Champs, Facile Vega and Blue Lord. Here we assess the claims of his eight favourites for the meeting and whether they are a play or a lay . . .
Lossiemouth
Race: Donohue Marquees Spring Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) | 1.55 Leopardstown, Saturday
Odds: 4-7
Favourites have won only two of the last ten runnings of this Grade 1 so it has historically proven to be a layers' race. Lossiemouth heads into the contest 3-3 over hurdles and given that the four behind her in the betting are also trained by Willie Mullins, her main opposition is almost certainly set to be a stablemate.
On the back of her seven-and-a-half-length Grade 2 course-and-distance win, she looks like the best juvenile hurdler in training and therefore isn't an obvious horse to be taking on.
Play or lay: Play
Appreciate It
Race: Goffs Irish Arkle Novice Chase (Grade 1) | 2.30 Leopardstown, Saturday
Odds: 7-4
Mullins has trained five of the last eight winners of this race – each time with his perceived stable number one – which bodes well for the chances of Appreciate It. A 24-length winner of the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, this high-class chase recruit is 2-2 over fences.
While Mullins admittedly has plenty of alternatives entered for this contest, given Appreciate It won so impressively at Naas last time – and is 4-4 here at Leopardstown – this looks the obvious race for him. He should be shorter than odds of 7-4 come Saturday afternoon.
Play or lay: Play
Galopin Des Champs
Race: Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup (Grade 1) | 3.05 Leopardstown
Odds: 4-11
There hasn’t been a winning Irish Gold Cup favourite since Quel Esprit scored in 2012, yet Galopin Des Champs looks likely to break that streak on Saturday afternoon.
A final-fence faller with last year’s Turners Novices’ Chase at his mercy, the seven-year-old cemented his position at the head of the Cheltenham Gold Cup betting with a 13-length John Durkan Chase romp – form since franked by runner-up Fakir D’Oudairies.
Open to improvement back over this 3m trip, despite the prohibitive odds he is impossible to oppose.
Play or lay: Play
Blue Lord
Race: Ladbrokes Dublin Chase (Grade 1) | 2.10 Leopardstown, Sunday
Odds: 4-11
One Mullins-trained chaser saw his reputation dented in Saturday’s Clarence House Chase, but Blue Lord is unlikely to match Energumene’s odds-on defeat.
Blue Lord has won six of his seven chase starts – three of those coming at Grade 1 level – and looked better than ever when an 11-length course-and-distance winner last time out.
The opposition in Sunday's Dublin Chase is headed by stablemate Gentleman De Mee, who was more than 40 lengths behind last time. Fastorslow needs further, and Sceau Royal and Dunvegan now look long in the tooth for Grade 1 chases. Everything, therefore, points to a comfortable success for Blue Lord.
Play or lay: Play
State Man
Race: Chanelle Pharma Irish Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) | 3.10 Leopardstown
Odds: 5-4
State Man comes into Sunday’s Irish Champion Hurdle seeking a seventh consecutive success. He has justified odds-on favouritism in both starts this season and is likely to go off a skinny price once again, but this time the value appears to be in taking him on.
He appeared far more tuned up for December’s Matheson Hurdle than stablemate Vauban – who lost valuable ground when short of room in the home straight. That four-and-a-quarter-length margin of defeat should at least be brought closer on Sunday.
There is also the small matter of Honeysuckle. A three-time winner of this race, she lost an unbeaten career record at Fairyhouse last time but might just come on for that showing and her 7lb allowance is a valuable weapon to possess.
Play or lay: Lay
Facile Vega
Race: Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) | 3.40 Leopardstown, Sunday
Odds: 2-5
Always held in the highest regard by Mullins, Facile Vega landed the Future Champions Novice Hurdle here last time out and his supporters will have been encouraged to see the third and fourth both come out and frank the form.
He does, however, face a different calibre of opponent in this weekend’s Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle. High Definition was a high-class operator on the Flat and will have learned plenty for his hurdling debut success, while Irish Point brings strong novice form to the table courtesy of second-place finishes in the Royal Bond and Lawlor’s of Naas.
Purely from a price perspective, I would rather be a layer than a player on Sunday.
Play or lay: Lay
Gaelic Warrior
Race: Liffey Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) | 4.10 Leopardstown, Sunday
Odds: 2-1
Agonisingly denied a winning stable debut in last season’s Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle, Gaelic Warrior has put that defeat behind him with long odds-on victories at Tramore and Clonmel this season.
He has bypassed a potential Betfair Hurdle engagement and is favourite for the Grade B Liffey Handicap Hurdle this Sunday.
His mark of 143 could well prove lenient, but given that only two of the last ten winners of this race carried more than 10st 10lb this has historically gone to one at the bottom of the weights. It must also be noted that his connections have reported a preference for right-handed tracks.
Play or lay: Lay
Fancy Girl
Race: Coolmore N.H. Sires "Santiago" Irish EBF Mares I.N.H. Flat Race (Grade 2) | 4.40 Leopardstown, Sunday
Odds: 11-8
Fancy Girl justified odds-on favouritism to land a Cork bumper on her first start for Mullins and is now to be upped in grade for the Dublin Racing Festival's closing mares’ bumper.
A winning pointer, Fancy Girl appreciated that Cork race turning into something of a stamina test. Conditions are not expected to be as testing on Sunday and that Cork form has received a knock since, so despite the stable's strong record in this sphere Fancy Girl rates a lay rather than a play.
Play or lay: Lay
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Published on inDublin Racing Festival
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