Are results at the Dublin Racing Festival a good guide for Cheltenham? Here are the key facts and figures

The Dublin Racing Festival (DRF) was introduced in 2018 as a key date on the jumps calendar, bringing together Ireland's best horses over two spectacular days at Leopardstown.

With signature races such as the Irish Champion Hurdle and Irish Gold Cup and more than €2 million in total prize-money, the DRF is a championship meeting that offers the sport's biggest stars the chance to secure a legacy alongside some of the greats of the past.

Given it takes place the month before the Cheltenham Festival, it also serves as an ideally positioned stepping stone to jump racing's biggest meeting of all.

Many of the leading Cheltenham contenders will attempt to enhance their festival claims at Leopardstown this weekend, but how does the DRF fare overall as a prep for March?

Our data from the last seven years shows that 48 Cheltenham Festival winners ran at the DRF. That is an average of 6.86 winners per year, which initially seems a lot but might have been higher when you consider Ireland's dominance of the jumps in recent years.

Of those 48 winners, 22 won at the DRF, five came second, six third and four fourth. Surprisingly, a disappointing run at the DRF can be turned around at Cheltenham as eight of the winners were unplaced, two unseated their rider and one fell.

You won't be surprised to learn that Willie Mullins, by far and away the DRF's leading trainer with a total of 47 winners ahead of Gordon Elliott on 16, is responsible for exactly half of the tally of Cheltenham winners – 24 of the 48.

Focusing on Cheltenham's four championship races – the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, Stayers' Hurdle and Gold Cup – the DRF has produced a total of seven winners, including three in both the Champion Hurdle (Honeysuckle in 2021 and 2022 and State Man in 2024) and the Gold Cup (Minella Indo in 2021 and Galopin Des Champs in 2023 and 2024).

Captain Guinness is the sole Champion Chase winner (2024) to have run in the Dublin Chase (finished third), but Min improved on his second in the Dublin Chase when going on to win the Ryanair Chase in 2020.

No Stayers' Hurdle winner has prepped at the DRF, but there is not an equivalent race over the weekend at Leopardstown.

A main standout from the data is that Sunday's Grade 1 Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle has been a notable breeding ground for Cheltenham winners, with no fewer than eight runners going on to claim glory at the festival.

Last year's race alone served up three festival winners with Ballyburn (first) in what is now the Turners Novices' Hurdle, Slade Steel (second) in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle and Absurde (fourth) in the County Hurdle.

The Grade 1 Ladbrokes Novice Chase, also on Sunday, is not far behind on six, including Brown Advisory winners Monkfish (2021) and Fact To File (2024) and last year's Arkle hero Gaelic Warrior.

Last year's Triumph Hurdle winner Majborough (far side) and runner-up Kargese both ran in the Grdae 1 juvenile hurdle at the DRFCredit: John Grossick

Another notable trend shows Saturday's Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle has superseded Kempton's Adonis Juvenile Hurdle as the key Triumph Hurdle trial, with five of the last seven festival winners prepping in it.

Two won, two came second and one third, so do not discount the placed horses with a view to Cheltenham.

Four of the last seven winners of the Champion Bumper were victorious at the DRF, three in Saturday's Grade 2 bumper and one in Sunday's Grade 2 mares' bumper.

Keep a close eye on Sunday's 2m2f mares' handicap hurdle as it has produced four festival winners since 2020. The 2021 edition was vintage as three Cheltenham winners came from it – Heaven Help Us (Coral Cup), Telmesomethinggirl (Mares' Novices' Hurdle) and Mrs Milner (Pertemps Final).

Read these next:

Confirmed runners and riders for the Grade 1 races on the opening day of the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown on Saturday 

This Leopardstown Grade 1 has produced the last four Triumph Hurdle winners - who will emerge this year to challenge Lulamba? 

Paul Townend set for his most difficult decision yet with strong cases for picking State Man or Lossiemouth 

'I might have got it completely wrong but I don't think I have' - Warren Greatrex preparing to enter DRF lion's den 

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