Who will win the 2024 Betfred Oaks at Epsom based on previous trends?

The third British Classic of the season, the Betfred Oaks (4.30), takes place on Friday at Epsom. We've taken a look at previous trends to help you pick out this year's winner.

Trials

Out of all of the traditional trials in Britain, the Musidora Stakes has recently emerged as the race to find the Oaks heroine. Two of the last three winners of the York Group 3 followed up at Epsom, including last year's winner Soul Sister, while Emily Upjohn arguably should have made it three wins in a row for Musidora scorers two years ago.

Secret Satire caused a shock in this year's Musidora, but she was impressive nonetheless and her connections are toying with a tilt at the Oaks.

Secret Satire (Oisin Murphy) wins the Musidora Stakes

Secret Satire streaks clear in the MusidoraCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

The Cheshire Oaks, won this year by Forest Fairy, has a more modest record, but has still produced two winners in the last decade. The great Enable did the double 2017, while a year later Forever Together was runner-up at Chester before winning at Epsom.

Anapurna (2019) is the only horse in the last ten years to do the Lingfield Oaks Trial and Oaks double, which does not bode well for You Got To Me, and Newmarket's 1,000 Guineas is more of a key trial.

Four Oaks winners contested that Classic, with Love (2020) and Minding (2016) landing the famous double. 2022 winner Tuesday and shock 2015 heroine Qualify were both beaten in the 1,000 Guineas before Epsom and that could strengthen the claims of Aidan O'Brien's leading representative this year, Ylang Ylang, who was fifth on her return at Newmarket.

Rating

It takes a top-class filly to win the Oaks but on paper this year's running looks slightly below-par. The lowest-winning Racing Post Rating in the last decade was 113 with Anapurna's success in 2019.

A high-class star may still emerge, however, given Ylang Ylang achieved a career-best RPR of 110 when fifth in the 1,000 Guineas. Secret Satire (106) and Ezeliya (103) also both achieved career-best RPRs with their trial successes last time.

Rubies Are Red (near): chased home You Got To Me in the Lingfield Oaks Trial

Lingfield trial 1-2 You Got To Me (far) and Rubies Are Red have yet to crack an RPR of 100Credit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

However, given every Oaks winner in the last decade has been in a three-figure RPR, it does not bode well for Rubies Are Red or Ralph Beckett's two trial winners Forest Fairy and You Got To Me. None of the trio have registered an RPR over 100 yet.

Distance

While none of the winners in the last decade had won over the Oaks trip, over half of them had won over a mile and a quarter or slightly further beforehand, with Enable, Forever Together and Anapurna all running over a mile and three and a half furlongs in the Cheshire Oaks and Lingfield Oaks Trial respectively.

That bodes well for the Ralph Beckett-trained duo Forest Fairy and You Got To Me, while Rubies Are Red was an eyecatching runner-up at Lingfield. Ylang Ylang is yet to run over further than a mile.

Four Pricewise winners last weekend!

Ace tipster Tom Segal was on a hot run of form last weekend as he nailed 9-2 and 3-1 winners on Saturday before correctly advising the Group 1 double at the Curragh on Sunday thanks to 11-4 Fallen Angel in the Irish 1,000 Guineas and White Birch at 15-8 in the Tattersalls Gold Cup.

He will be back in the hotseat for the Betfred Oaks and Derby this weekend. Don’t miss his expert advice by signing up to Racing Post Members’ Club – and use code MEMBERS24 to get 50% off your first three months!

Experience

It usually pays to follow those who are improving. While Qualify won the Oaks after nine career runs, and Love and Snowfall with eight, seven out of the last ten winners had run between two and six times beforehand.

Last year's scorer Soul Sister had raced three times before Epsom, while ten years ago Taghrooda struck on just her third career start. Out of the main fancies, Forest Fairy is the least exposed, with her Cheshire Oaks win being just her second start, while Ylang Ylang is one of the most experienced in the line-up with six runs under her belt.

Price

The Oaks has not been a kind race for favourite backers with Minding and Love the only market leaders to have obliged in the last decade.

Their trainer Aidan O'Brien had three winners in that time who were not his yard's first string, but it is not like the Oaks is a haven for big-race shocks. Qualify is the only double-figure priced winner in the previous ten years, when landing the spoils at 50-1 nine years ago.

Secret Satire: winner of the Musidora StakesCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

Verdict

This year's Oaks looks wide-open, but the one who appeals most at a bigger price is Secret Satire, given the record of favourites in the race recently.

Trained by Andrew Balding, she did not look like stopping in the Musidora Stakes last time and that has proved to be the go-to race to find an Oaks winner recently.

She is still improving and the form of her Musidora win was boosted nicely when Francophone won a Listed contest at Goodwood last weekend.