Who will win the 2024 Betfred Derby at Epsom based on previous trends?

One of the world's great Flat races, the Betfred Derby (4.30), takes place on Saturday at Epsom. We've taken a look at previous runnings of the Classic to see who could join the illustrious roll of honour this year.

Trials

The spread of traditional trials winners who follow up in the Derby is mixed, but another Classic, the 2,000 Guineas, has produced three successful horses in the last decade.

Interestingly all of them had been beaten at Newmarket, with Australia (2014) and Masar (2018) both finishing third, while Auguste Rodin inexplicably disappointed when 12th last year. That bodes well for Auguste Rodin's stablemate City Of Troy.

Golden Horn (2015) and Desert Crown (2022) both took the Dante before Epsom glory, but this year's York winner Economics will not be heading to Epsom. Ancient Wisdom chased Economics home and Workforce (2010) was the last Dante runner-up to win the Derby.

Ambiente Friendly wins the Derby Trial at LingfieldCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

The Lingfield Derby Trial, won this year by Ambiente Friendly, has thrown up two winners in the last decade, with Anthony Van Dyck doing the double in 2019, while Adayar finished second behind Third Realm two years later.

It is 22 years since the last winner of Leopardstown's Derby Trial scored at Epsom, so Los Angeles will have history against him if he is to be successful.

Ratings

Only one Derby winner in the last ten years registered a Racing Post Rating under 120, with Anthony Van Dyck producing an RPR of 119.

City Of Troy has already bettered four Derby-winning RPRs in the last decade, as he raced to a figure of 123 with his brilliant Dewhurst Stakes success last year. However, he was given a measly 84 for his 2,000 Guineas flop.

None of his Derby rivals has broken the 120 RPR mark, with Ancient Wisdom coming closest having run to 114 when winning the Autumn Stakes at Newmarket last year.

Distance

The mile and a half trip is an unknown for plenty of the field, but the last ten Derby winners had all won over at least a mile before running at Epsom.

That is a significant negative for City Of Troy, whose three career wins as a juvenile all came over seven furlongs. It is too soon to judge if he stayed the mile trip of the 2,000 Guineas given how poor his run was.

City Of Troy: can he bounce back at Epsom?Credit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

Five of the last ten Derby winners had also scored over 1m2f or further. They were Desert Crown (2022), Serpentine (2020), Anthony Van Dyck (2019), Harzand (2016) and Golden Horn (2015).

Los Angeles's Leopardstown Derby Trial win came over 1m2f and Lingfield Derby Trial winner Ambiente Friendly has just half a furlong further to face at Epsom.

Four Pricewise winners last weekend!

Ace tipster Tom Segal was on a hot run of form last weekend as he nailed 9-2 and 3-1 winners on Saturday before correctly advising the Group 1 double at the Curragh on Sunday thanks to 11-4 Fallen Angel in the Irish 1,000 Guineas and White Birch at 15-8 in the Tattersalls Gold Cup.

He will be back in the hotseat for the Betfred Oaks and Derby this weekend. Don't miss his expert advice by signing up to Racing Post Members' Club – and use code MEMBERS24 to get 50% off your first three months!

Price

Only three favourites in the last decade have been successful in the Derby, although Auguste Rodin was the 9-2 joint-second favourite when winning last year.

There have been some shock results recently, with four double-figure priced winners in the last seven years. Wings Of Eagles was the biggest price when scoring at 40-1 in 2017. 

Verdict

City Of Troy is completely unbackable following his 2,000 Guineas flop, and preference instead goes to his stablemate Los Angeles.

Already a Group 1 winner, the step up in trip should suit and he can end the Leopardstown Derby Trial's wretched record at Epsom. 

Notably, three of Aidan O'Brien's last four Derby wins did not come from the supposed stable first string.

Los Angeles16:30 Epsom

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Jky: Tnr: A P O'Brien

Read these next:

2024 Betfred Derby at Epsom: the runners, the odds, the verdict 

2024 Betfred Derby tips and predictions: why this horse can win at Epsom 

Confirmed runners, riders and the draw for the 2024 Betfred Derby at Epsom on Saturday 

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