Who will win the 2023 Betfred Oaks at Epsom based on previous trends?

The third British Classic of the season, the Betfred Oaks (4.30), takes place on Friday at Epsom. Here, we take a look at previous trends to try to help pick the winner.

Trials

The winners of five of the traditional Oaks trials – the Pretty Polly Stakes, Cheshire Oaks, Newbury Fillies' Trial, Lingfield Oaks Trial and the Musidora Stakes – have a modest record in the race overall.

That record has improved in recent years with Snowfall's 2021 success coming after her victory in the Musidora and Anapurna winning the Lingfield Oaks Trial before victory here in 2019.

What seems more crucial is a prep run of some sort, whether that be in an established trial or not. Each winner in the last ten years had at least one run that season before running at Epsom.

Ante-post favourite Savethelastdance bids to follow in the footsteps of the mighty Enable, who won the Cheshire Oaks before claiming Classic glory. The daughter of Galileo made a big statement on the Roodee with a commanding 22-length victory and she has led the market since.

Savethelastdance: pulled well clear of her Cheshire Oaks rivals

Rating

It takes a top-class filly to win the Oaks. Since 2012, only the Aidan O'Brien-trained Was and John Gosden's Anapurna have won the Epsom Classic with a Racing Post Rating below 115.

Eight of those winners achieved a career-best RPR on their last start, although the O'Brien trio of Tuesday, Minding and Qualify have all bucked that trend.

That would be a negative against Boogie Woogie, Dance In The Grass, Be Happy and Bright Diamond, who all failed to better their highest RPR on their latest appearance.

Distance

Seven of the last ten winners had won over seven furlongs or a mile at two.

The three exceptions were 2018 winner Forever Together, 2019 scorer Anapurna and 2022 heroine Tuesday, who were all unsuccessful over those distances as juveniles.

Interestingly, O'Brien has six entered and only Be Happy ticks this box. Second favourite Soul Sister and third favourite Running Lion both won over a mile as two-year-olds.

Running Lion brings bags of potential to the tableCredit: Edward Whitaker

Unexposed

It pays to follow those with potential to improve, shown by the fact six winners since 2012 had run between two and six times.

The four to have bucked the trend were all trained by O'Brien, including Snowfall, who had seven runs as a juvenile alone.

Enable and Anapurna ran three times before their victories for John Gosden and the yard followed the same path last season with unlucky second Emily Upjohn. Soul Sister fits the trend as she attempts to go one better.

Price

Starting at the head of the market does not mean success, with only two winning favourites in the last ten years – Love and Minding.

O'Brien has won six of the last ten runnings and three of those were not the stable's most fancied runner in the betting.

The race has thrown up big-priced winners, with the likes of Qualify (2015) at 50-1, and Was (2012) and Talent (2013) at 20-1, so it could be worth taking on those towards the top of the betting.

Verdict

The selection is Soul Sister as the daughter of Frankel comes here after just three starts. It is a tried-and-tested path for the stable and she won the leading trial race last time out, hitting a top RPR of 115.

Soul Sister, easy winner of the Musidora Stakes at YorkCredit: Edward Whitaker

A winner over a mile at two, she is unexposed and her Musidora victory suggested she's improving rapidly. She pulled away to beat a good field that day and win by an eased-down four lengths. She ticks every trend box and can provide Frankie Dettori with a seventh win in the Epsom Classic.

Soul Sister16:30 Epsom

View Racecard

Jky: Frankie Dettori Tnr: John & Thady Gosden

Betfred Oaks (4.30 Friday, Newmarket)

bet365: 11-10 Savethelastdance, 11-4 Soul Sister, 13-2 Running Lion, 10-1 Eternal Hope, 14 Warm Heart, 33 bar

Epsom Derby festival betting offers

• bet365 have a new customer offer available if you sign up for an account here
• Paddy Power are giving away free bets to new and existing customers, and all you need is an account. Sign up here
• Sky Bet are offering new customers free bets when they sign up. You can get them, along with money-back specials and extra places, here
• Betfair have lots of offers, extra places and money-back specials. Sign up for a new account here
• New William Hill customers can claim free bets and benefit from money-back offers here
• To get a free bet from Ladbrokes, simply sign up to a new account here
• Sign up for a new Coral account. They have an offer for new customers here
• If you're a new customer, Tote will give you a free bet. Sign up here to claim
• Commercial notice: This article contains affiliate links. Offers are handpicked and come from operators that our experts have first-hand experience of. Opening an account via one of these links will earn revenue for the Racing Post, which will be used to continue producing our award-winning coverage of horseracing.

Read these next:

2023 Betfred Oaks at Epsom: assessing the top contenders for Friday's big race 

Who will win the 2023 Betfred Derby at Epsom on Saturday based on previous trends? 

Subscribe today and get set for a sizzling summer of Flat racing with 50% off your first three months 

Do you want £200+ of free bets? Racing Post have got the best offers, all in one place. Visit racingpost.com/freebets to find out more.