Frankie Dettori's last Derby dance: what chance does he have of bowing out with a third Epsom triumph?

Frankie Dettori has had 28 rides in the Derby (1.30) but has won it only twice, an indication of how difficult it is to win the Flat season's premier Classic.

His first victory came on Authorized for trainer Peter Chapple-Hyam in 2007, and he had to wait another eight years for his second win, on the John Gosden-trained Golden Horn.

Dettori went three years without a ride in the race following his split from Godolphin in 2012, but a new partnership with Gosden in 2015 coincided with the brilliant Golden Horn, who would go on to land the Eclipse and Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe with Dettori on board.

The jockey's mount on Saturday, Arrest, is also trained by Gosden (together with his son Thady), so what are the chances of history repeating itself in Dettori's retirement year?

Betfred Derby (1.30 Saturday, Epsom): full racecard and betting

Form

Dettori is operating at a superb 30 per cent strike-rate this year in Britain, with his performances on day one of the Derby festival putting him in a solid position for the feature race on Saturday.

His last winner came in the Epsom Oaks as he steered Soul Sister to success for the Gosden yard. For Dettori, it was his seventh victory in the race and also the second part to a Group 1 double after he partnered Emily Upjohn to glory in the Coronation Cup earlier on the card.

The most successful active rider in British Classics guided Chaldean to 2,000 Guineas glory last month, and a productive winter stint in California has helped propel him back to the top of his game following a difficult 2022.

Horse

Arrest ran out an easy six-and-a-half-length winner in the Chester Vase. Ruler Of The World was the last horse to do the Vase-Derby double in 2013, while the last Juddmonte-owned horse to win the Derby was Workforce in 2010.

The son of Frankel won twice as a juvenile before finishing a head runner-up to fellow Derby hopeful Dubai Mile in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud and proved he had trained on as a three-year-old when recording a personal best Racing Post Rating on his return at Chester.

However, he does have some questions to answer. His two best performances have come with cut underfoot, and the likely quick conditions at Epsom may not be to his liking.

In an exclusive interview with the Racing Post, John Gosden warned: "In my opinion, Arrest would be better suited to the Curragh than Epsom.

"He's a big, leggy boy with a high knee action, but on the other hand he acted well on the track. He's not the perfect build for Epsom, like Golden Horn was, but he did it just fine. Now we'll wait and see what Frankie ends up doing!"

Arrest (pink cap) storms clear from Adelaide River to win the Chester Vase

Arrest powers clear to win the Chester VaseCredit: Alan Crowhurst

Odds

As a result of Dettori's Group 1 double on Friday, his mount Arrest has shortened to 7-2 (from 6) with Ladbrokes and is expected to be sent off as clear favourite for the Derby.

The Juddmonte-owned three-year-old was cut to 9-2 from (6-1) before his top-level double and bookmakers say support has arrived as the 'Dettori factor' kicks in.

Nicola McGeady, head of PR at Ladbrokes, said: "Frankie Dettori’s farewell tour is turning into a true fairytale, and after landing a Group 1 double today, it looks like he will now go off as clear favourite in the Derby aboard Arrest.

"Frankie was always going to be incredibly popular for his final Derby ride, but after today’s heroics, every man and his dog will want to be with him tomorrow."

Trainers

This will be the first Derby runner for the Gosdens in their role as joint-trainers. The pair are hitting form at the perfect time, with their last four runners all winning, and a victory in the Oaks for either of their well-fancied fillies Soul Sister and Running Lion will only strengthen confidence behind Arrest.

Like Dettori, Gosden snr is a dual Derby winner. As well as Golden Horn, the trainer landed the race with Benny the Dip in 1997.

Frankie Dettori with John Gosden at Epsom's recent gallops morningCredit: Edward Whitaker

Verdict

Dettori's record in the race proves how tough a task it is to land this historic race and Arrest has plenty to prove. While he has a chance, the same can be said for many in a wide-open Derby.

The two big concerns are the ground and the track, and that may spoil plans for a fairytale ending to Dettori's last Derby dance, although expect the roof to come off the Epsom grandstands if he prevails.