2023 Betfred Derby at Epsom: assessing the top contenders for Saturday's big race

The Betfred Derby (1.30 Epsom, Saturday) takes place this weekend and the upcoming running of this world-famous Group 1 looks wide-open. Here we go through the form of the leading contenders and produce an early verdict on who will come out on top.

Auguste Rodin

Form: 2111-0

Strengths: A high-class juvenile who signed off last season with a dominant Group 1 victory at Doncaster, where he looked every inch a Derby horse.

Highly thought of by Aidan O’Brien, who stands alone as the most successful trainer in the history of the Derby with eight winners.

Travel disruption may have played a part in his underwhelming 2,000 Guineas effort, and his preparation seems to have gone far smoother this time around. Also reappears with his stable in red-hot form.

Auguste Rodin: needs to bounce back from a poor run in the 2,000 GuineasCredit: Patrick McCann

Weaknesses: He must bounce back from a 22-length defeat when favourite for the 2,000 Guineas.

His best form has come on softer ground than he is expected to face on Saturday.

Odds: 3-1

What they say

Aidan O’Brien, trainer: "Everything Auguste Rodin has done since Newmarket we've been very happy with. He seems to have come out of the race well and we always thought the Derby trip and the ground at Epsom would be no problem to him. He's a very well-balanced colt, a lovely mover, so you'd imagine Epsom will be no problem to him either."

Auguste Rodin13:30 Epsom

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Jky: Tnr: A P O'Brien

Military Order

Form: 41-11

Strengths: As a brother to 2021 Derby winner Adayar he is certainly bred for this task.

He is a progressive colt who backed up a Newbury novice success when claiming the Lingfield Derby Trial last time out.

Connections felt that Lingfield's track did not play to his strengths, so it is encouraging that he still managed to get the job done and it is difficult to gauge where his limitations currently lie.

Weaknesses: Impressed with a soft ground Newbury win and might not want the ground to be too quick here.

Odds: 4-1

What they say

Charlie Appleby, trainer: "I've left Military Order in the race on the back of his win in the Lingfield Derby Trial which I was very pleased with. He has come out of that race well and it is all systems go hopefully into a Derby now. His preparations have been faultless to date and he ticks a lot of boxes as they say." 

Military Order13:30 Epsom

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Jky: William Buick Tnr: Charlie Appleby

Passenger

Form: 13

Strengths: Unraced at two and went into plenty of notebooks with a debut success in the Wood Ditton at Newmarket in April.

He was sent off favourite for the Dante Stakes at York on the back of that performance, and he would have finished closer than a length-and-a-half-third but for notable trouble in running.

He represents last year’s winning trainer and jockey combination and connections have stumped up the £85,000 supplementary fee to get him a place in the Derby line-up.

Passenger: represents last year's Derby-winning jockey and trainerCredit: Edward Whitaker

Weaknesses: He lacks the experience of many of these rivals and his style of racing does tend to require some luck in running.

Odds: 11-2

What they say

Alan Cooper, racing manager to owners the Niarchos Family: "Ted Durcan sat on him on Saturday morning in Newmarket and Michael [Stoute] was very happy afterwards – he's recommended we should go. The horse is very well in himself and he's grown up considerably, physically and mentally. Hopefully he should be very competitive."

Passenger13:30 Epsom

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Jky: Richard Kingscote Tnr: Sir Michael Stoute

Arrest

Form: 3112-1

Strengths: He was twice a winner at two and ended his juvenile campaign with a head defeat in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud.

Was stepped up to 1m4½f in the Chester Vase on his three-year-old debut and put up an impressive performance to score by an eased down six-and-a-half-length margin.

Put through his paces in a recent morning workout at Epsom which has provided him with crucial experience of the track.  

Arrest: comfortable winner of the Chester Vase last time outCredit: Alan Crowhurst

Weaknesses: Appreciates cut in the ground and therefore the dry forecast is a big negative. 

Odds: 13-2

What they say

Frankie Dettori, jockey: "We always thought a bit of him last year, but he was all frame and no muscle. He's done great in the winter, his homework's been good, Chester was great. Sometimes horses from two to three, they don't develop, but he has.” 

Arrest13:30 Epsom

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Jky: Frankie Dettori Tnr: John & Thady Gosden

The Foxes

Form: 911-21

Strengths: Group 2-winning juvenile who backed up a respectable seasonal reappearance second in the Craven Stakes when claiming the often-informative Dante last month.    

He appreciates good ground and top jockey Oisin Murphy keeps the partnership intact.  

The Foxes: winner of the Dante Stakes under Oisin MurphyCredit: Edward Whitaker

Weaknesses: His stamina for 1m4f is open to question given he is related to Matterhorn and Bangkok, who were both best at 1m2f.

Odds: 12-1

What they say

Andrew Balding, trainer: “The Foxes meandered across the course a little bit [at York] but he was the best horse in the race. We're thrilled, it's just what we wanted to see, to win the race and hopefully go on to better things. We always had a doubt whether he would stay a mile and a half but I think on that evidence an extra couple of furlongs won't go amiss. He looks a likely candidate.”

The Foxes13:30 Epsom

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Jky: Oisin Murphy Tnr: Andrew Balding

How about the remainder?

It is currently 7-2 the Derby field which goes to show just how open this year’s event is shaping up to be. Of those not listed above, Sprewell warrants respect having run out an impressive winner of the Derby Trial Stakes at Leopardstown last time out. A sound surface would be a concern however given that he is yet to race on anything other than soft or heavy ground. 

Sprewell: an emphatic winner of the Group 3 Derby Trial Stakes at LeopardstownCredit: Patrick McCann

Dubai Mile puts the Classic form to the test courtesy of his fifth in the 2,000 Guineas and this longer trip is expected to suit. He beat Arrest in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud and should run his race here.

White Birch showed his Ballysax reappearance win to be no fluke when going down by a neck to The Foxes in the Dante. Stepping up to 1m4f is sure to suit on that evidence and he remains open to improvement on the back of just four starts.

Verdict

Military Order has plenty going for him and should be on the premises and can emulate his brother Adayar and win the premier Classic for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin.  

Military Order13:30 Epsom

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Jky: William Buick Tnr: Charlie Appleby

Betfred Derby, 1.30 Epsom, Saturday

bet365: 11-4 Auguste Rodin, 7-2 Military Order, 5 Passenger, 6 Arrest, 10 The Foxes, 11 Sprewell,  14 White Birch, Dubai Mile, 16 Waipiro, 33 bar

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Confirmed runners and riders for the Betfred Derby at Epsom - plus a big-race tip 

Who will win the 2023 Betfred Derby at Epsom on Saturday based on previous trends? 

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