Is Il Est Francais a Champion Chase winner in waiting?

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This week's Post Script was written by race analyst Mark Brown.

The Post Script is back after a week off and I have enough opinions on the racing we've seen in the past two weeks to write a novel. Instead, we'll have to make do with a two-part Post Script, with part one focusing on the chasing action we've witnessed, while next week's second instalment will be all about the hurdlers. 

King George runner-up looks a real star

As Il Est Francais winged the last fence in the back straight on the first circuit of the King George, I thought to myself, 'I'd love to see him over two miles.' Then it dawned on me: why can't he win this season's Champion Chase?

Regular readers of the Post Script will be aware I think Jonbon is a vulnerable favourite for the big race and the horse I thought might take him down, Gaelic Warrior, was disappointing on his return, albeit at a course that doesn't seem to suit.

James Reveley mooted the possibility of the Ryanair as a festival aim for Il Est Francais following this defeat, a thought in the right direction, but it's the big race 24 hours earlier you need, James!

Couldn't you see Il Est Francais putting up the sort of performance the great Allaho, my favourite ever jumps horse, did in the Ryanair for either of his wins? I can. His two best performances, by some margin, have come on a sound surface over three miles at Kempton, with his Racing Post Rating of 173 for this defeat 5lb above what he received for his Kauto Star win as a novice.

While going left-handed over a mile shorter at Cheltenham would be a different ball game, I think he could thrive, as he simply looks to have had enough of slopping around over a staying trip on heavy ground in France.

I had a few quid on at 20-1 after the race –16s is still available – so I'm hoping connections see sense. 

Banbridge has had his big day

I'll admit I didn't see Banbridge producing the sort of performance he did to win a King George. With hindsight, he had his ground and clearly improved for the longer trip, while also having the pace to close on Il Est Francais, who had taken the true three-milers out of their comfort zone for much of the race.

Banbridge: defeated Il Est Francais in the King George when conditions were perfect for himCredit: Alan Crowhurst

The reapplication of cheekpieces, which he'd worn for the first time when winning the Punchestown Champion Chase in April, also played a big part and his RPR of 174 has him improving 4lb on his previous best.

I couldn't contemplate backing him for Cheltenham until I knew he'd have his going, though, as he was beaten 75 lengths on unsuitably soft ground in last season's Ryanair.

Wayward Lad key to festival Grade 1 novice chases

 I'd say we saw the winner of both the Arkle and Brown Advisory in the Wayward Lad at Kempton.

Following his impressive reappearance win in the Fighting Fifth, I wrote of Sir Gino in the Post Script: 'Don't be fooled, chasing is still the route to take, with this performance screaming 'Arkle' as opposed to Champion Hurdle.'

Now, he's no certainty to win the Arkle after this display, but boy wasn't he impressive? Although jittery at the first, once he had his confidence he threw in a number of spectacular jumps and could be called the winner as early as the fourth fence.

The way he eased clear in the straight tells me he's going to be every bit as good as the likes of Sprinter Sacre and Altior, and better than Shishkin, all previous winners of the Wayward Lad for Henderson, with his 166 RPR just shy of the marks achieved by his esteemed stablemates – it's a matter of time before he's hitting 170-plus.

Sir Gino: could he be as good as the likes of Sprinter Sacre and Altior?Credit: Edward Whitaker

He's now odds-on across the board for the Arkle and it'll take an exceptional one to deny him, although in Majborough Willie Mullins has one capable of making things interesting.

As for Ballyburn, this wasn't a race he was going to win if, as expected, Sir Gino took to fences. Going right-handed on good ground at a speed-favouring track like Kempton, he was put in his place by a pure two-miler. Fans of the horse needn't worry, though. It'll be a different story once he's upped in trip, with a more patient ride on slightly slower ground expected to see him excel.

His class and speed could be seen to devastating effect over three miles and he's rightly favourite for the Brown Advisory – I could see him winning in a similar style to Fact To File last March.

A third Gold Cup awaits Galopin

I have no hesitation in saying that Galopin Des Champs is Willie Mullins' best ever chaser.

Galopin Des Champs: brilliant again in the Savills ChaseCredit: Patrick McCann

There was plenty of talk about him being on the decline after he finished only third to stablemate Fact To File in the John Durkan on his reappearance, but as I said in the Post Script soon afterwards, he was still the best Gold Cup bet at 4-1 and, returning to a left-handed circuit over three miles, he reminded us of just how dominant a staying chaser he is on his day, and at a time when plenty from the yard failed to fire.

He did enjoy the run of the race in front, but we know he can be ridden in any manner. Now no bigger than 6-4 for a third straight Gold Cup, he's a stayer with speed who relishes soft ground and the demands of Cheltenham, so I see no reason to think he won't deliver the goods again come March, and there is a real possibility that he's now at the peak of his powers as he's about to turn nine – his 181 RPR is 3lb off his best and his fourth highest overall behind only last season's romp in the Savills and his two Gold Cup wins.

Seven lengths away in second was the young pretender Fact To File, who was too keen for his own good and again adjusted right at several of his fences. The ground was also not as soft as he'd like, but that was the case for Galopin too.

There was no shame in this defeat, but I can't see him reversing form in the Gold Cup, and there is surely more than a possibility that he ends up in the Ryanair, depending on what materialises with stablemates Gaelic Warrior and El Fabiolo – the last-named being my idea of the winner of the race unless Fact To File diverts.

Fact To File is 13-2 in a place for the shorter race and, if given the nod, it wouldn't surprise me if he went off at short odds, depending how the race shakes out – William Hill have priced him at 6-4 in their non-runner no-bet market.

Atlantique again displays star quality

Having compared Ile Atlantique to Galopin Des Champs and ranked him number one of my Willie Mullins novice chasers in an earlier Post Script – ahead of the likes of Majborough and Ballyburn – it was nice to see him vindicate my opinion with an easy success in the Grade 2 Racing Post Novice Chase at Naas on Sunday.

However, after he powered clear over an extended two and a half miles on his chasing debut, I was surprised to see him dropped to two miles. He coped just fine on this occasion, with the heavy ground a help, and again impressed with his jumping, but come the spring I'm sure he'll need stepping back up in trip, unless we get a really wet one.

He was cut across the board for both the Arkle and Brown Advisory.

Today's nap

Ash Wednesday

8.30 Wolverhampton

Ash Wednesday20:30 Wolverhampton (A.W)

View Racecard

Jky: Jack Mitchell Tnr: Heather Main

This gelding is by Outstrip, whose progeny have a good record on the all-weather, and his dam recorded her only win and career best on Polytrack, so it shouldn't come as a surprise that he's improved for a switch from turf to synthetics.

He looked all over a winner at Kempton two starts ago, travelling nicely and hitting the front inside the final two furlongs, only for his stamina to run out towards the finish.

Back over 7f here last time, he looked very unlucky not to win. Squeezed out early, he ended up further back than ideal. He again travelled well, though, and had his challenge not been delayed by traffic in the straight he'd have won comfortably, so strongly did he finish, denied by only a nose at the line.

Granted some luck in running he should be hard to beat here.
Steffan Edwards

A tip from the analysis team can be found in On The Nose, a daily newsletter sent out at 9am. Click here to subscribe.The team finished second in the 2022 Racing Post naps competition, third in the 2022-23 season and third again in the latest edition which finished at the end of April.

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