'I wouldn't play at 6-4 never mind 4-6' - assessing the chances of these red-hot Cheltenham Festival favourites

There are plenty of short-priced favourites at this year's Cheltenham Festival and the saying goes "they can't all win" - but can they? Tom Park assesses their chances . . .

Ballyburn

Race: Gallagher Novices' Hurdle (1.30 Wednesday)

Odds: 10-11/10-11

Looks to have everything to go to the very top and has been without a doubt the best novice hurdler this season and now that his intended target  has finally been confirmed, he will be very difficult to beat in the Gallagher.

Although he looks like he pulls very hard, Paul Townend suggests it looks far worse than it is and I actually think he takes a few strides to get going. if something is to beat him this season, it will be for speed, so taking the Gallagher route over 2m5f looks sensible. 

Verdict: A class above and will win whatever race he turns up in. BACK

Ballyburn13:30 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr: W P Mullins

Ballyburn looks the best of the novice hurdlers this seasonCredit: Patrick McCann

State Man

Race: Unibet Champion Hurdle, 3.30 Tuesday

Odds: 2-5

State Man's task was made a lot easier when the mighty Constitution Hill was taken out of the race and this looks a penalty kick.

I actually thought he might have given Constitution Hill a fright this year. Whether he'd have won, I'm not so sure, but last year's winner certainly couldn't have afforded to have arrived undercooked.

He has been far superior in Ireland and while 2-5 is not a price I would usually get involved in, if this race was at Leopardstown he'd be 1-6, so it's hard to say it's a bad price.

Verdict: As good a good thing as it gets. Only the eight hurdles stand in his way. BACK

State Man15:30 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr: W P Mullins

State Man looks a good thing in the Champion HurdleCredit: Alan Crowhurst

Lossiemouth

Race: Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle, 4.10 Tuesday

Odds: 4-7

A brilliant juvenile last season, Lossiemouth has had just the one start this season where she ran away with the Unibet Hurdle to win in devastating fashion. 

It's the running away I have a problem with here. She bolted at the top of the hill in the Triumph and had enough class to get herself home, but I'm not sure she can afford that luxury here against a really good mare in Ashroe Diamond.

You can pick holes at the form of her Cheltenham success too. Love Envoi was running on ground she hated and a trip too short, while the others clearly didn't run their race.

I'd prefer to see her in the Champion Hurdle, where she could really use her speed to full effect.

Verdict: Undoubtedly the most likely winner, but there are more than enough doubts to not get involved. I'll let her win at that price. AVOID

Lossiemouth16:10 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr: W P Mullins

Lossiemouth could be vulnerable over this tripCredit: Alan Crowhurst

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Fact To File

Race:  Brown Advisory Novices' Chase, 2.10 Wednesday

Odds: 4-5

Has been the talking horse of the preview night circuit with many connected to Willie Mullins' yard suggesting that he could be next year's Gold Cup winner. Of course, that could well be true, and it would be foolish to dismiss such chat, but I like to judge things from what I've seen on the track and Fact To File, although clearly very good, still has plenty to prove.

His time when beating Gaelic Warrior in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase at Leopardstown was very good, but it was a two-horse race and he still has to prove it in a bigger field, albeit there won't be many runners here.

He has two really hardy rivals in Stay Away Fay and Monty's Star and not forgetting Broadway Boy, whose Cheltenham form is excellent. This promises to be run at a pretty relentless gallop for a small field and that might just make him vulnerable.

Verdict: I'd rather have the field at odds-against than back him at odds-on. AVOID

Fact To File14:10 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr: W P Mullins

Fact To File looks short in what looks set to be a small but select fieldCredit: Alan Crowhurst

El Fabiolo

Race:  Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase, 3.30 Wednesday

Odds: 1-2

Priced as if defeat is out of the question, but I'm yet to believe that there is the gulf in class between El Fabiolo and Jonbon as many suggest.

Jonbon ran a shocker last time, but I sense he isn't the easiest of horses to train and it seemed like everything that could go wrong that day did. He will be much better if ridden more positively here and if Edwardstone goes off hard it should also suit Jonbon. 

Those tactics ought to suit El Fabiolo too, but it will bring his jumping under greater scrutiny. If I am backing a 1-2 shot I want every box ticked and I am not certain about El Fabiolo and, in truth, I don't have enough evidence to suggest he is even the most talented horse in the field. If he beats Jonbon again conclusively then we can crown him a great champion, but he is priced as if he already is.

Verdict: There are much better value 1-2 shots and I prefer Jonbon. AVOID

El Fabiolo15:30 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr: W P Mullins

El Fabiolo (near) got the better of Jonbon (left) in the Arkle last seasonCredit: Edward Whitaker

Brighterdaysahead

Race: Ryanair Mares' Novices' Hurdle, 4.50 Thursday

Odds: 6-4

Probably wouldn't have featured in this piece a couple of weeks ago, but such has been the confidence of connections on the preview night circuit her price has collapsed and she has snuck her way in.

Unbeaten in two bumpers and three hurdles starts, Gordon Elliott has not held back about telling people just how good he thinks Brighterdayshead is.

Her performances back it up, both in the formbook and on the clock, and this would be a penalty kick in previous seasons.

However, this is arguably one of the races of the meeting, with Jade De Grugy and Dysart Enos both incredibly talented mares. Jade De Grugy in particular looks rather special and there is a quiet confidence from the Willie Mullins camp – they seem quite happy for everybody to jump on the Brighterdaysahead bandwagon.

Dysart Enos is clearly very talented too, and her trainer Fergal O'Brien has campaigned her shrewdly so she escapes a 5lb penalty that could prove crucial. The New course might just test her stamina here, though.

Verdict: A really fascinating contest. I fancy Brighterdaysahead but whether I play is all on a price perspective. I would just about be willing to back her at her current price, but any shorter I will let her win. BACK

Brighterdaysahead16:50 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr: Gordon Elliott

Brighterdaysahead could be very special but this looks a hot raceCredit: Patrick McCann

Sir Gino

Race: JCB Triumph Hurdle, 1.30 Friday

Odds: 4-6

Winning well, yet in green fashion, on his debut at Kempton but a completely different beast was unleashed on Trials day at Cheltenham. 

His sloppy jumping was cleaned up and he powered up the hill in terrific style to saunter to the head of the Triumph market, slamming previous favourite Burdett Road by ten lengths.

There is no questioning his ability, but Willie Mullins could run five or six here and the field looks set to be big. Sir Gino is extraordinarily short for a horse we have only seen on two occasions – and let's not forget that the Nicky Henderson stable have just had their worst February this century.

The Irish have had better juveniles than the British generally for some time and there's a good chance the five or six Mullins' runners are better than the horses Sir Gino made light work of. That's not to say Sir Gino won't be better than them too, there's a very good chance he is, but at 4-6 he has got to be one of the worst-value favourites of the entire meeting.

Verdict: The most likely winner, for sure, but I wouldn't back Sir Gino at 6-4 never mind 4-6. AVOID

Sir Gino13:30 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr: Nicky Henderson

Sir Gino was very impressive at Cheltenham last time outCredit: John Grossick

Galopin Des Champs

Race: Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase, 3.30 Friday

Odds: Evens

A brilliant winner of the race last season, blasting clear of Bravemansgame on the run-in despite doing lots wrong throughout the race. A couple of unexpected defeats to Fastorslow followed before he produced one of the chasing performances of the ages when winning the Savills Chase by 23 lengths before he put the record straight with Fastorslow in the Irish Gold Cup.

A repeat of his Savills performance will make him very hard to beat but this Gold Cup has plenty of depth to it and Galopin Des Champs is a very short price. I'm just not sure I could back anything at such price when Shishkin is lining up against you. He is extremely classy and I have no doubt he was going to win the King George on Boxing Day. He seems a proper stayer these days and should be suited by this test.

Fastorslow might just find out Galopin Des Champs' jumping on better ground here too. The Martin Brassil-trained eight-year-old is capable of taking lengths out of the opposition and jumping has definitely been Galopin Des Champs' Achillies heel.

Verdict: This looks a really hot Gold Cup and Galopin Des Champs will have to be right on his game to win. I have a nagging doubt about him on better ground and I'd much rather have the field on my side at even money than him. AVOID

Galopin Des Champs15:30 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr: W P Mullins

Galopin Des Champs has been brilliant on his last two starts at LeopardstownCredit: Patrick McCann

Dinoblue

Race: Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase, 4.50 Friday

An unlucky second in the Grand Annual at last season's festival, Dinoblue has improved no end since dropping back in trip and wouldn't look out of place in the Champion Chase.

There is no doubting her class, she is miles the best of this field, but she hasn't run over this trip since beaten ten-and-a-half lengths by Brandy Love in a 2022 novice hurdle.

She looks speedy, but she's so far ahead I just think her class will see her through.

Verdict: The class of the field. BACK

Dinoblue16:50 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr: W P Mullins

Dinoblue: runner-up in the Grand Annual last yearCredit: Patrick McCann

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