Four Cheltenham Festival favourites you can take on - and a value pick against them

Marine Nationale

Best odds: 5-2

Having backed him when he won the Supreme, I had high hopes that Marine Nationale would be a major force in the two-mile novice chase division, and he went some way to justifying that belief with an easy success in a beginners' event at Leopardstown over Christmas.

However, he was bitterly disappointing when a short price for the Irish Arkle at the Dublin Racing Festival two weeks ago, not showing any of his usual zest and finishing a well-beaten fifth, with any chance he may have had disappearing after a mistake at the last. That has to cast doubt over him for the Arkle.

I'd be willing to take him on with JPR One, who has shown enough this season to warrant major consideration. A comfortable winner on his chasing debut, he had the Arkle trial at his mercy before unseating at the last and produced an RPR of 155 when beating Matata in the Lightning Novices' Chase at Lingfield last month - and that figure would make him a serious contender at the festival.

Value play: JPR One (12-1)

JPR One14:10 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr: Joe Tizzard

Embassy Gardens

Race: National Hunt Challenge Cup (Tuesday, March 12)

Best odds: 5-2

It's hard to knock a horse who is 2-2 over fences, and Embassy Gardens went into plenty of Cheltenham notebooks with a visually impressive victory over Sandor Clegane at Naas in January.

However, Sandor Clegane made the running in horrible conditions that day and looked like he ran out of steam, yet he finished closer to Embassy Gardens (ten lengths) than he did to Favori De Champdou (14 lengths) when ridden more patiently on his previous start.

I wouldn't be rushing to take a short price about him in an open race and would much rather chance Broadway Boy, whose two best performances have come over staying trips at Cheltenham. Warwick's sharp nature didn't suit last time and he is still open to improvement returned to a more galloping track.

Value play: Broadway Boy (14-1)

Broadway Boy17:30 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr: Nigel Twiston-Davies

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Fact To File

Race: Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (Wednesday, March 13)

Best odds: 2-1

Last year's Champion Bumper runner-up Fact To File made the unusual leap straight to chasing, but he has taken to fences well, jumping soundly on all three runs, including accounting for a below-par Gaelic Warrior at Leopardstown last time.

But he is far too short in the Brown Advisory market for one who has yet to prove he stays three miles, and Grey Dawning looks the obvious choice, with his form stacking up increasingly well.

On his penultimate run he looked an unlucky second to Ginny's Destiny, who franked the form when lumping top weight in a Cheltenham handicap on his next start, and he then gave Grade 1-winning hurdler Apple Away 10lb and a 14-length beating at Warwick, with the 150-rated Broadway Boy a further 18 lengths away.

Grey Dawning isn't short of speed either, and I'd back him to get the better of Fact To File whether that was in the Turners or Brown Advisory.

Value play: Grey Dawning (9-2)

Grey Dawning14:10 Cheltenham

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Jky: Tnr: Dan Skelton

Sir Gino

Race: Triumph Hurdle (Friday, March 15)

Best odds: 5-6

Many would have thought they’d seen the Triumph Hurdle winner when Sir Gino smashed Burdett Road at Cheltenham’s Trials day, and the bookmakers reacted accordingly, with Nicky Henderson’s four-year-old storming to the head of the market.

There is no doubting that was a serious performance, but taking odds-on about a horse in a division where runners improve massively from one start to the next isn't my idea of a good bet.

Instead, I'm looking at Bunting. The Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle has provided the winner of the last three Triumphs, and although he didn't win it, he caught my eye with the way he finished for fourth.

Willie Mullins said in his Racing Post Cheltenham stable tour that he was "very taken" with how he stayed on at Leopardstown, and he is sure to relish the extra furlong up the Cheltenham hill next month.

Value play: Bunting (20-1)