Can Willie Mullins break his record of ten Cheltenham Festival winners?

Willie Mullins set a new Cheltenham Festival record last year when winning a remarkable ten races over the four days in the Cotswolds. If the market is to be believed he can at least match that tally this year as he has ten ante-post outright or joint-favourites in the 28 races. Can he repeat his feat from last year, or even better it?

Willie Mullins' Cheltenham favourites

Facile Vega

Supreme Novices' Hurdle (1.30, March 14)

Odds: 10-3

Confidence would have been high among Facile Vega backers following his first two hurdle wins, but the wheels well and truly fell off at the Dublin Racing Festival when he was beaten 20 lengths, finishing last of five.

Can that defeat simply be put down to Paul Townend's overconfident ride? Don't be so sure, and a few pundits have long had reservations about him for the Supreme.

Chance of Mullins win: 6/10 - Facile Vega has plenty to prove after his Leopardstown flop, but even if you were to discount him Mullins' potential back-ups Il Etait Temps, Diverge and Hunters Yarn give him ample strength in depth.

El Fabiolo

Arkle (2.10, March 14)

Odds: 6-4

El Fabiolo obliterated what had previously looked a very strong field at the Dublin Racing Festival, and given that Jonbon was visually far less impressive at Warwick last Saturday, it is no surprise to see him head most betting lists for the Arkle.

El Fabiolo would have given his Leopardstown backers a fright with a sketchy jump at the fourth-last fence that day, but given it was just his second chase start it's perhaps unfair to crab him too much and his jumping in the main was exemplary.

Chance of Mullins win: 8/10 - El Fabiolo looks high class while stablemate Dysart Dynamo is a fine second string, so this looks a very strong opportunity for the yard.

El Fabiolo: Arkle favourite after winning at LeopardstownCredit: Patrick McCann

Tekao

Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (4.50, March 14)

Odds: 6-1

Willie Mullins has hit the Boodles crossbar in the last two years with Saint Sam and Gaelic Warrior, so can he make it third time lucky in 2023 with Tekao?

The JP McManus-owned gelding finished behind stablemates Gala Marceau and Lossiemouth at the Dublin Racing Festival, and it’ll be interesting to see what the British handicapper makes of his Irish rating of 128.

Chance of Mullins win: 3/10 - Tekao deserves favouritism on the back of his Leopardstown run, but Gaelic Warrior's defeat in this last year showed that being well handicapped doesn’t guarantee success.

Gaillard Du Mesnil

National Hunt Chase (5.30, March 14)

Odds: 13-8

Gaillard Du Mesnil was runner-up to Bob Olinger in the Ballymore in 2021 and third to L'Homme Presse in the Brown Advisory last year, but does the National Hunt Chase now provide him with his best chance of a Cheltenham Festival win?

The market would certainly suggest so, and chase experience has counted for plenty in this race in the past. Last year's Irish Grand National third won't be failing for stamina and looks the class angle in the field given that he was a Grade 1 winner over Christmas.

Chance of Mullins win: 8/10 - This looks the perfect race for Gaillard Du Mesnil and he is one of Mullins’ strongest chances at the Cheltenham Festival.

Energumene

Champion Chase (3.30, March 15)

Odds: 13-8

Mullins gained a much sought-after first Champion Chase win 12 months ago with Energumene, and the nine-year-old heads the betting this year despite being beaten at odds of 4-9 in the Clarence House Chase at Cheltenham last time out.

He'd have been closer there but for a severe final-fence error, but he still looked set to only finish third at the time anyway. He was held up when winning the Champion Chase last year, but could he benefit from being ridden positively this time around?

Chance of Mullins win: 5/10 - Questions to answer for Energumene after his Clarence House defeat and he's facing up-and-coming rivals this year, most notably Edwardstone.

Energumene: bids for back-to-back wins in the Champion ChaseCredit: Mike Hewitt

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It's For Me

Champion Bumper (5.30, March 15)

Odds: 7-2

The Champion Bumper has been a race farmed by Willie Mullins in recent years. His winning tally now stands at 12 and he's sent out four of the last five winners.

Bookmakers rate It's For Me his strongest hope this time around. This gelding was a point-to-point winner for Stuart Crawford and bolted up in a Navan bumper on his stable debut last month, immediately catapulting himself into favouritism here.

It is tough to argue with how visually impressive It's For Me was at Navan, but is that form strong enough to warrant him being as short as 3-1 for the Champion Bumper?

Chance of Mullins win: 8/10 - While It's For Me looks a little short, Mullins is still likely to have incredibly strong representation in the Champion Bumper and is going to prove tough to stop.

Lossiemouth

Triumph Hurdle (1.30, March 17)

Odds: 7-4

Mid-race shenanigans saw Lossiemouth beaten in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle last time out, but it can be argued that her reputation was enhanced despite the defeat.

With a clear passage, I expect that she'd have beaten stablemate Gala Marceau and can reverse that form at the festival. Stablemate Blood Destiny looks above average, but he’s facing an uphill task giving Lossiemouth 7lb.

Chance of Mullins win: 9/10 - The British runners don't look up to the standard of their Irish counterparts and it'd be a shock if one of Lossiemouth, Blood Destiny or Gala Marceau don't win this, with the first-named looking likeliest to prevail.

Embassy Gardens

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle, (2.50 March 17)

Odds: 11-2

Three of the last six runnings of the Albert Bartlett have gone Mullins' way and Embassy Gardens looks the main Closutton hope in 2023.

He improved significantly for the step up to 2m7f when running out a 35-length winner at Thurles last month. He retains plenty of scope for improvement on the back of just five starts, particularly in the jumping department, so must enter calculations.

Chance of Mullins win: 2/10 - While Embassy Gardens looks potentially quite smart, this is a wide-open race and Mullins doesn't have an obviously strong second string.

Galopin Des Champs

Gold Cup (3.30, March 17)

Odds: 13-8

Galopin Des Champs has managed to shake off the memory of last season's final-fence Turners fall with scintillating victories in the John Durkan and Irish Gold Cup this season.

Will he stay the 3m2½f Cheltenham Gold Cup trip? He certainly wasn't stopping at the line at Leopardstown and for the past two seasons he's peaked at the festival.

He doesn't look an obvious horse to lay given that those around him in the betting all have questions to answer, but neither at 13-8 does he look one to be rowing in on too heavily.

Chance of Mullins win: 7/10 - Galopin Des Champs is the most likely winner of the Gold Cup on what he's shown this season, but a back-to-form A Plus Tard would pose him plenty of problems.

Galopin Des Champs: heads to Cheltenham for the Gold CupCredit: Patrick McCann

Allegorie De Vassy

Mares' Chase (4.50, March 17)

Odds: 13-8

Mullins has claimed both previous runnings of the Mares' Chase and therefore it's no great shock to see him with the market leader here in Allegorie De Vassy.

She is 4-4 since joining Mullins, her two wins this season coming in Grade 2s over fences.

At the moment, she falls into the could-be-anything category at this stage of her career, but her jumping left something to be desired at Thurles last time and it is unlikely she'll get away with any significant errors at the festival.

Chance of Mullins win: 4/10 - Allegorie De Vassy is an exciting mare, but her jumping had punters watching through their fingers at Thurles and this is far tougher.

Where else might the wins come from?

There is scarcely a division or race where Mullins does not appear to have a strong hand. State Man looks the only reasonable challenger to Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle while Grade 1 winner Brandy Love could yet stake her claim for the Mares' Hurdle despite not being seen since last April.

The likes of Impaire Et Passe and Champ Kiely give him a strong hand against Hermes Allen in the Ballymore while Sir Gerhard was being mooted as a Brown Advisory contender following his debut victory over fences last month.

Sir Gerhard: on course for one of the Grade 1 novice chases at CheltenhamCredit: Patrick McCann

Appreciate It would be a fascinating runner should he step up in trip for the Turners Novices' Chase and although Allaho – who would have been one of the bankers of the week – has been ruled out of the Ryanair, Mullins could still be well represented by Blue Lord and Haut En Couleurs (who would need to be supplemented).

Nicky Henderson's Luccia is favourite for the Mares' Novices' Hurdle but Mullins is likely to have a swarm surrounding her in a race he has won five times out of seven, while Billaway is being aimed for a repeat bid in the Hunters' Chase on the Friday.

All that is without even mentioning the handicaps. Top novice hurdler Gaelic Warrior heads the markets for the Coral Cup and County Hurdle but he looks more likely to head to one of the Grade 1s (in the Supreme or more likely the Ballymore), and more will become clear about Mullins' hand there when handicap entries are made next week. The master trainer has won at least one handicap at all but one of the last six festivals and given his power is only growing, it would be a shock if he were to walk away from them empty-handed.

Verdict: will he beat his own record?

Races like the Arkle, National Hunt Chase and Triumph Hurdle look to be where Mullins has the best chance should his big guns stand their ground, whilst the Champion Bumper winner is also very likely housed in Closutton given his stronghold in that department.

The County Hurdle and Martin Pipe are handicaps that Mullins often targets, and even in races like the Ballymore and Mares' Novices' Hurdle, in which he doesn't hold the outright market leader, he still has real strength in depth with his entries.

Will he get more than ten winners? It is a big ask given that Thursday in particular looks a tough day, and the Dublin Racing Festival brought about as many questions as it did answers with some of his string.

Expect him to go close, but the 2022 record of ten will remain intact.

Read these next:

'That performance was huge, I've always been keen on him' - Willie Mullins on his colossal Cheltenham squad 

'Absolutely phenomenal' - how Willie Mullins made Cheltenham 2022 his own  

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