Who will win the Champion Stakes based on previous trends?

The Qipco Champion Stakes takes place this Saturday with a top-class field expected to line up at Ascot (3.40). We've taken a look at the previous runnings and picked out the key factors to help predict this year's winner.

Ground

British Champions Day's position in the calendar means soft going is often a likelihood and so it often pays to have good sense of how the field may go on slower ground.

The weather between now and Saturday looks relatively dry but there is no denying this will be another running of the Champion Stakes when those with soft-ground form come to the fore.

Of the entries with at least two starts on soft, the favourite Magical stands out. The seven-time Group 1 winner is three from five in the conditions, including when winning this 12 months ago.

Addeybb: often a favourite with the punters when the ground is softCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Addeybb has to be considered on this account having won three of his nine starts on soft ground, with Extra Elusive another possible runner with proven form in testing conditions.

One more to consider is French raider Skalleti, who is unbeaten in eight starts on soft or heavy ground.

Age

Younger horses do not have a stellar record in the race in recent years, with just two of the last 11 winners coming from the Classic generation.

Mishriff, one of this year's leading candidates, would need to follow in the sizeable footsteps of Cracksman and Almanzor to become the third three-year-old winner of the race in the last decade.

Grand Prix de Paris winner Mogul, Derby hero Serpentine and one of the year's surprise packages Pyledriver are the the other three-year-olds in the field.

Over the same period, no horse older than five has scored, meaning winning performances from Addeybb, Benbatl or Desert Encounter would fly in the face of recent trends.

RPR

In the last decade it has taken an excellent performance to win the Champion Stakes, with all but two of the winners over the period running to a Racing Post Rating of 125 or higher.

Magical's victory last year was given an RPR of 122 and with the mare having never run to a mark north of 124, she would need to be near her best to hit the historically required level, although she of course retains a 3lb sex allowance.

Lord North: ran to an RPR of 127 at Royal AscotCredit: Gettys Images

Other fancied runners such as Addeybb, Mishriff and Mogul have never hit the 125 mark, leaving Lord North and Japan as the only entries who have.

Lord North's impressive Prince of Wales's Stakes win this season gave him a rating of 127, while Japan's Juddmonte International victory last year earned him a 125 rating.

Market principles

Unlike other races on Champions Day which have seen big-priced winners in recent years, the Champion Stakes is a contest often dominated by those at shorter prices.

Five of the last ten winners, including Frankel, Cracksman and Almanzor, have been sent off favourite with a further three obliging at odds of 7-1 or shorter.

There is plenty of movement to come in the market between now and Saturday, but this looks one race set to be immune from the big-priced winner curse, often the bane of punters' lives on Champions Day.

Verdict

Mishriff holds obvious claims based on his performances this season, but the record of three-year-olds in the race makes him unappealing. Addeybb has excellent course form but has yet to come anywhere close to running at the level of previous winners of this race. The eye is drawn to Magical, who produced a memorable performance in the Irish Champion Stakes last time and looks the class act in a race perhaps not quite up to the level of previous years.

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