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Champions Day trends: who will win the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes and Qipco Champion Stakes?
British Champions Day is set to produce another stellar card on Saturday, with the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (3.15) and the Qipco Champion Stakes (3.55) the two big highlights of a stacked meeting. Here, we take a look at the key trends that could help you pick apart two huge races.
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Queen Elizabeth II Stakes
The generation game
Three-year-olds have won 12 of the last 16 runnings, enhancing their overall dominance down the years.
From Brigadier Gerard in 1971 to Big Rock 12 months ago, the Classic generation has delivered 34 of the 52 winners.
There is, therefore, some mileage in opposing the four-year-old Charyn at short odds, but with which youngster?
Tamfana is the right age but the wrong sex when so many high-class females have found this late-season target too tough a test.
Persuasive won seven years ago, but she was a four-year-old and 12 months earlier Minding became the first successful three-year-old filly to triumph since Milligram in 1987. Even older females struggle, as Persuasive was their first winner since 1976.
It's not as though the Classic generation hasn't been well represented. Tahiyra was the latest top-class filly to fall short 12 months ago, as did Inspiral a year earlier when the 11-10 favourite. Bosra Sham, Soviet Song and Laurens were other notable failures.
The best of this year's three-year-olds is the colt Metropolitan. He gained all-important Classic honours in winning the French 2,000 Guineas, and the St James's Palace Stakes, in which he ran third, is a strong pointer.
Although only Frankel has achieved this particular double in the last 20 years, the Ascot feature has produced seven of the last 19 three-year-old winners.
Although Metropolitan provided no match for Charyn when tackling older opposition for the first time in the Jacques le Marois last time, that was on good ground and he looks a far more potent force when there's give underfoot. He's assured of that at the weekend.
Charyn the older choice
Other than the superb record of horses younger than him, Charyn has a lot in his favour and is a worthy favourite. Roger Varian's four-year-old has been one of the success stories of the season and returning to the scene of his explosive performance in the Queen Anne can only bode well.
Six of the last eight older horses to win this ran at Royal Ascot, finishing 513121 in either that Group 1 or the Prince of Wales's Stakes.
Facteur Cheval was only sixth in the Queen Anne but on ground too fast and the French raider has been backed this past week with a softer surface guaranteed on Saturday.
Conditions were also against him when third in the Sussex Stakes, which is comfortable the best all-aged guide. However, Minding is the only winner since George Washington to have finished outside of the top two the time before.
Other key pointers
Eight of the last 20 winners had won over the distance. The exceptions were Olympic Glory and Big Rock, who had finished runner-up in mile Group 1 contests.
King Of Change (12-1) and Bayside Boy (33-1) are the only recent winners to return at double-figure odds.
Alistair Jones's verdict
The consistent Charyn has danced most of the dances in the top Group 1 mile races this season and, if an older horses is to prevail, then it's likely to be him. However, the Classic generation continues to strengthen its grip on this race and a youngster has to be the way to go.
A three-year-old colt is always preferred to a three-year-old filly and French 2,000 Guineas winner Metropolitan can return to winning ways on his favoured soft ground.
Qipco Champion Stakes
No knocking the big two
Economics and Calandagan dominate the betting and, while neither is a perfect fit on trends, alternatives are thin on the ground with the older horses so opposable.
Iresine is shortest in the betting and he's a seven-year-old who would become the oldest winner since Bendigo in 1887. Luxembourg could be set for pacemaking duties and Al Riffa has to be taken on after contesting the Arc.
Older horses have won 23 of the 44 runnings since 1980, yet the Classic generation has held its own.
Perhaps why three-year-olds have failed to win more is a lack of battle-hardened experience. It says a lot that 16 of the last 18 winners had run at least nine times, which makes Economics light on that score after just five races.
King Of Steel won this on his seventh start last year, yet Jack Hobbs (evens), Free Eagle (5-2), Barney Roy (9-2), Mishriff (4-1), Adayar (5-2) and Horizon Dore (4-1) were fancied youngsters found wanting.
Calandagan has the benefit of two more races than Economics and that could be critical. The best of his seven starts was in chasing home City Of York in the Juddmonte International in August and it should be of no concern that he hasn't raced since.
Champions Day comes at the end of a long season and the Champion Stakes is a tough test in which freshness can be a major plus. Magical is the only winner in the last decade who had raced more than six times that season and she was a typical Aidan O'Brien workaholic who thrived on racing.
Calandagan's lack of Group 1 honours is no drawback. The last ten winners had all contested a Group 1 (eliminating King's Gambit) and four winners during this period were making the breakthrough at the highest level.
The French colt proved himself top class with his clear second at York and the five recent winners who were beaten the time before all ran in a Group 1.
The Ascot factor
Calandagan also has the benefit of valuable course experience having captured the King Edward VII Stakes over 1m4f. Economics will be having his first run at the track.
The nature of this race has changed its transfer from Newmarket to Ascot.
Five of the last seven successful three-year-olds had form in a Guineas, but the four winners from the Classic generation to triumph at Ascot had stronger middle-distance form.
Stamina is a greater asset at Ascot and Farhh in 2013 is the only winner since Haafhd to have raced over a mile the time before.
Arc no preparation
Counting against Arc third Los Angeles is that only nine winners in the 45 years had contested the Paris feature, finishing 633792255. In the last decade, only Magical and Sealiway had even run at that meeting.
Other key pointers
It rarely pays to look beyond the obvious. Eleven of the last dozen winners were within 6lb of the top-rated on Racing Post Ratings.
Astonishingly for one with his ammo, Aidan O'Brien has won this 1m2f Group 1 only one, with Magical in 2019.
Alistair Jones's verdict
This is a great race for French-trained horses with 24 victories since 1945 and a combination of Ascot form, assured stamina and that bit more experience entitles Calandagan to the vote over Economics.
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Read this next:
Confirmed runners and riders for Qipco British Champions Day at Ascot on Saturday
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