Champion Stakes likely to be run on inner course if forecast deluge turns Ascot going heavy on Saturday

Ascot is braced for up to 20mm of rain to hit the course before Qipco British Champions Day on Saturday and the Champion Stakes and two other races are likely to be switched to the inner round course if the deluge arrives.

While the going was described as soft on the round and straight courses at Ascot on Monday, clerk of the course Chris Stickels said heavy ground was increasingly possible because of the predicted volume of rain and poor drying conditions.

The possibility of heavy ground has contributed to market weakness behind Inspiral, who is out to as big as 12-1 (from 5) for the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, and Mostahdaf, who has eased to 6-1 (from 4) for the Champion Stakes.

Stickels said: “We had 23mm of rain between Wednesday and Friday last week and it’s been dry since then. It’s due to stay dry until Wednesday afternoon and from there there’s an increased forecast for showers. The forecast is changing as the week goes on – some are saying there will be more rain, some less – but there is a big area of low pressure coming in at the end of the week.

“From Wednesday until Saturday we’re forecast between 15-20mm of rain but we don’t know much more than that at the moment. The ground isn’t going to dry significantly between now and then – that much is certain. We might get some good to soft places on the straight course when we do the readings tomorrow, but then the rain will come.”

While the races due to take place on the straight course – the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, British Champions Sprint and the Balmoral Handicap – cannot be moved, there is the prospect of shifting the Champion Stakes, Long Distance Cup and Fillies & Mares Stakes to the inner course. This last happened in 2019, when Magical landed the Champion Stakes when areas of the outer round course were waterlogged.

Chris Stickels: Ascot ground not going to dry significantly between now and SaturdayCredit: Alan Crowhurst

While a decision on whether to move the three races on to the inner course can be made as late as the morning of the meeting, Stickels said officials may know earlier if large amounts of rain arrive due to the inability of the ground to dry quickly at this time of year.

Stickels said: “With the three races on the round course we can switch to the inner if heavy is in the going description and it’s absolutely possible that will happen; if we get 20mm of rain then heavy will appear in the going description. 

“The latest we can switch is 8am on the Saturday and it’s hard to speculate now what the going on the inner course will be. There may be a mixture of good and good to soft, but we will have to see. Clearly, if they are talking about 20mm arriving on soft ground then we’re going to get heavy in places at least and it’s pretty unlikely to improve if it gets to that.

“We’ll have to see what happens, but it might be that we have an idea by Thursday or Friday depending on what the weather brings before then. It’s good to have the option to switch to the inner course, but that won’t change how things are on the straight course. It’s a shame as it had been relatively dry until now but once you get to this time of year the ground is cold and there isn't much evapotranspiration.”

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