From 33-1 to 7-4 - City Of Troy's journey from 2,000 Guineas flop to Breeders' Cup Classic favouritism

City Of Troy has been the standout three-year-old in Europe this year. Connections have been bold from the outset, with Aidan O'Brien stating from the start of the season that he would love to run his star colt in the Breeders' Cup Classic. He was introduced to the betting market in March, with William Hill going 20-1 about the son of Justify. 

The journey to Del Mar had an unexpected bump in the road when City Of Troy – whom O'Brien said he had "never seen tire in his work" in the build-up to the 2,000 Guineas – finished very tired on the Rowley Mile, beaten 17 lengths into ninth. He was pushed out to 33-1 as a result.

Since then City Of Troy has answered every question asked of him and his Breeders' Cup price has continued to shorten. He was magnificent in the Derby, slicing through the field to win by two and three-quarter lengths and his price collapsed to as short as 4-1 with William Hill. Ladbrokes, Coral and bet365 offered the best price at 8-1.

The Derby winner was a little under par when following up in the Eclipse on soft ground but then put in a huge performance in the International at York. He showed plenty of speed out of the gate, a high cruising speed, a turn of foot and plenty of stamina – attributes needed of a Breeders' Cup Classic winner – and was cut to a best-priced 7-2 with bet365.

As the calendar turned to September, O'Brien took City Of Troy to Southwell for a gallop on the dirt track in preparation for Del Mar. Connections were impressed with what they saw, and so were punters and bookies, with City Of Troy down to a general 11-4.

That price has continued to shorten as City Of Troy's date with destiny looms. He has been cut to a best-priced 7-4 with bet365, Paddy Power and Betfair and is 6-4 with most other firms.

Racing on dirt and taking on the Americans in their own backyard, he has one last question to answer. Lose, and City Of Troy, who has been drawn in gate three, will be remembered as a very good three-year-old who failed, like so many before him, to beat the Americans on dirt. Win, and he will take his place among the greats.

Bookies' view

Paul Binfield, Paddy Power

It’s marvellous that the race is being shown on ITV as the support we've seen for City Of Troy is unprecedented and he'll be comfortably the biggest ante-post loser of any international race in the last ten years. We don't expect the support to dry up on the day. 

Given the unknowns on the surface, it would seem he has a wide range of possible SPs but we feel that the weight of support and hype has driven him close to the bottom of that range. 

For this reason we're happy to be a top-of-the-market 7-4, but plenty can change between now and Saturday night.

Expert view

Shane Ketteridge, international tipster

City Of Troy has been a brilliant three-year-old this season and was impressive in the Juddmonte International last time. 

It's understandable why connections are keen to give it a go, particularly as there's no real standout contender in America this season.

However, taking on the Americans in their own backyard on a tight dirt track like Del Mar will be unlike anything he has experienced before.

While the American opposition lacks a superstar, they are used to the tight turns and the kickback that dirt racing brings. The race will unfold quickly and I'd be surprised if City Of Troy can go with them.

The only way I can see City Of Troy winning is if he gets to the lead from the gates. While I have yet to decide who I'll be selecting in my Pricewise column, I'll definitely be taking on City Of Troy.

Read these next:

City Of Troy gets gate three in the Breeders' Cup Classic as draws are made for the entire Del Mar spectacular 

What's on this week: all roads lead to City Of Troy's date with destiny at Del Mar while jumps stars return at Down Royal 

Make no mistake, City Of Troy may be a short-priced favourite but the odds are stacked against him in Breeders' Cup Classic 

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