2024 Breeders' Cup Classic tips: the runners, the odds, the verdict
It's the moment of truth. Tonight we find out if City of Troy can make history in the Breeders' Cup Classic (9.41) at Del Mar. Aidan O'Brien is yet to taste victory in the 1m2f contest but City Of Troy could present his best-ever chance of adding the race to his peerless CV. Here you can read the lowdown on his rivals, including their trainers and jockeys plus big-race odds, in our comprehensive runner-by-runner guide, also featuring our expert analysis and a verdict on the outcome of what promises to be an epic race.
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2024 Breeders' Cup Classic betting
Breeders' Cup Classic (9.41 Del Mar)
Forecast odds: 7-4 City Of Troy, 4 Fierceness, 11-2 Forever Young, 12 Sierra Leone, 14 Ushba Tesoro, 16 Highland Falls, 25 Arthur's Ride, 33 Derma Sotogake, Tapit Trice, Newgate, Next, 50 Senor Buscador, Pyrenees, 66 Mixto.
2024 Breeders' Cup Classic: runners, riders and odds for Longchamp
1 Forever Young
Well-travelled Japanese runner, his sole defeat came in the Kentucky Derby but he was a close third and might have won had he not been leaned on by Sierra Leone in the straight. He didn't help himself with a sluggish start, which has been a trait, and the inside gate 1 isn't ideal for a runner who gets behind, but he began more sharply when winning his prep for this. His trainer had two winners at this meeting here in 2021.
Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi
Jockey: Rysei Sakai
Forecast odds: 11-2
Draw: 1
2 Highland Falls
Won the 1m2f Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga under a forward ride in September but he probably needs to run faster now.
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Luis Saez
Forecast odds: 16-1
Draw: 2
3 City Of Troy
The outstanding three-year-old on turf in Europe, winning the Derby, Eclipse and Juddmonte International. He was allowed a soft lead at York on his latest run and had a following wind to help. This is a more competitive contest on a new surface; his sire Justify was a top dirt horse but his dam was a turf runner. The dam's sire was sixth in this race at Belmont in 2001, trainer Aidan O'Brien is 0-14 in this race on dirt with two of those placing.
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Forecast odds: 7-4
Draw: 3
4 Mixto
Won the Grade 1 Pacific Classic over course and distance last time out, but that was a weak race with a relatively modest time and he needs to do way more now.
Trainer: Doug O'Neill
Jockey: Kyle Frey
Forecast odds: 66-1
Draw: 4
5 Senor Buscador
Late-running type who couldn't get into this at Santa Anita last year, finishing seventh. Was in fine form early this year, notably winning the 1m1f Group 1 Saudi Cup (the richest race in the world); however, he struggled in his prep for this and is easy to ignore.
Trainer: Todd Fincher
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Forecast odds: 50-1
Draw: 5
6 Derma Sotogake
Second in this last year at Santa Anita after a six-month absence; below form since but has had a prep this time when finishing behind Ushba Tesoro; blinkers have been added.
Trainer: Hidetaka Otonashi
Jockey: Christophe-Patrice Lemaire
Forecast odds: 33-1
Draw: 6
7 Ushba Tesoro
Lacked the pace to get involved in this at Santa Anita last year, finishing fifth (behind Derma Sotogake). He won and finished second in the last two runnings of the 1m2f Group 1 Dubai World Cup over a deeper surface at Meydan and finished runner-up in recent prep, which he also won last term. Others appear quicker.
Trainer: Noboru Takagi
Jockey: Yuga Kawada
Forecast odds: 14-1
Draw: 7
8 Pyrenees
Runner-up in 1m1f-1m2f Grade 1s on last two starts, most recently behind Highland Falls. Not good enough for this.
Trainer: Cherie DeVaux
Jockey: Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr
Forecast odds: 50-1
Draw: 8
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9 Fierceness
Won last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Was favourite for the Kentucky Derby which didn't go his way in May but gained back-to-back wins in good races at Saratoga in the summer, most recently in the 1m2f Grade 1 Travers, just holding on from Distaff-bound Thorpedo Anna. He has been trained for this race since and Coolmore have purchased his stallion rights.
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John R Velazquez
Forecast odds: 4-1
Draw: 9
10 Tapit Trice
Will need to run way faster than when winning 1m1f Grade 2 Woodward at Aqueduct last time out.
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr
Forecast odds: 33-1
Draw: 10
11 Sierra Leone
Another for Coolmore. Lacks early speed and has lugged left for pressure, as happened when he was a nose second in the Kentucky Derby, leaning all over third-placed Forever Young. Was more professional when finishing third in the Travers at Saratoga; he couldn't match the pace of Fierceness then but is seemingly still maturing and a strong pace could bring him into this - his sire won this here in 2017.
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Forecast odds: 12-1
Draw: 11
12 Arthur's Ride
Landed two 1m1f-1m2f wins from the front in fast times at Saratoga earlier this year, notably in the Grade 1 Whitney. He was disappointing on his last showing but comes into this fresh and has had only eight starts overall, so retains potential, and his trainer has won this twice.
Trainer: William Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Forecast odds: 25-1
Draw: 12
13 Newgate
Won 1m2f Grade 1 Big 'Cap at Santa Anita in March. Ignore his Dubai World Cup defeat later the same month and he had a nice prep for this when third at Santa Anita in September. He is a potential improver but still needs to run quite a bit faster than he's ever managed before.
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Frankie Dettori
Forecast odds: 33-1
Draw: 13
14 Next
A winning machine but usually over further and below the top level.
Trainer: William Cowans
Jockey: Luan Machado
Forecast odds: 33-1
Draw: 14
2024 Breeders' Cup Classic verdict
By Ron Wood
The Derby winner trying to land the Breeders' Cup Classic is a tremendously exciting prospect and it will be a great achievement if City Of Troy pulls it off. No European runner has won this race on dirt since the French-trained Arcangues at Santa Anita in 1993. Aidan O'Brien has tried 14 times (on dirt), going so close with Giant's Causeway at Churchill Downs in 2000 and still chasing the prize all these years later. O'Brien's Galileo was the last Derby winner to have a go, but he was only sixth at Belmont in 2001 - and he's the sire of City Of Troy's dam, who was a grass horse. The latest Ballydoyle contender's own sire was a dirt runner – Justify, who won the Triple Crown in 2018 – but City Of Troy's suitability for this surface, so different to the turf over which he has been racing over, is the big question mark. He might be the best horse in the race, but there are enough doubts to pass when it comes to taking short odds. Forever Young appealed before the draw, but he now looks up against it in trying to come from off the speed from the inside post. FIERCENESS and Arthur's Ride are of most interest. They might have the race to themselves on the lead.
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Published on inBreeders' Cup
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- More Than Looks comes with a strong late charge to deny 2,000 Guineas winner Notable Speech in Breeders' Cup Mile
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