Mighty Constitution Hill has the world at his feet - but can anything stop him over hurdles?

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The will he, he won’t he regarding Constitution Hill going chasing this season was put to bed pretty early. He won’t.

The decision was met with its fair share of criticism but, truth be told, it would have been much more of a surprise had they opted to jump fences this season.

Constitution Hill is that good he’d win in any discipline over 2m, but his Aintree Hurdle win over 2m5f in the spring suggested his stamina might just be emptying and the idea for going chasing was because owner Michael Buckley hoped he could be a Gold Cup contender. On the Aintree evidence, he is not. Not yet, at least.

Instead he takes aim at Istabraq’s place as the best 2m hurdler of all time and few would put it past the Nicky Henderson-trained six-year-old in eclipsing Istabraq’s best Racing Post Rating of 181 this season.

His devastating way of racing means that feat is entirely possible – he is a horse capable of extraordinary things.

With the British opposition thin on the ground - his closest rival Epatante has since retired – he is likely to follow a similar path to Cheltenham as last season, with the Fighting Fifth and Christmas Hurdle the obvious Grade 1s.

If Constitution Hill is going to taste defeat this season it is likely his conqueror will be Irish and most probably from the Willie Mullins stable.

State Man, who has won every start he has completed for Mullins bar the Champion Hurdle defeat to Constitution Hill, is arguably still his best hurdler. He proved himself comfortably best of the rest and is probably good enough to have won at least a couple of the last five Champion Hurdles, but he has nine lengths to find with Constitution Hill.

Impaire Et Passe was arguably the most impressive novice hurdle winner at the festival last season and realistically is probably the most likely to gain the Constitution Hill scalp simply due to being unexposed. However, there has not been a better 2m hurdler for more than 20 years so the likelihood Impaire Et Passe is that good is unlikely. He brings some intrigue to the division though.

Vauban has to reverse the form with State Man and Constitution Hill but has been a revelation on the Flat this season. He is only a five-year-old so there is a chance he is improving.

In all likelihood if Constitution Hill turns up in the same form as last season then the rest are playing for second. But this is racing, things are seldom so simple.

Big Jump Off ranking explainer

The Big Jump Off rankings are determined by taking an average of the five key score components. Abilty is calculated by comparing the horse in question to the best all-time RPR – in this case Istabraq – before averaging that to a score out of 100. Speed is calculated by comparing their Topspeed figure to the best of all time. Jumping is calculated by taking the probability of a horse falling, before overlaying basic stats such as falls, unseats and recent jumping errors. Faster ground compares the all-time RPRs on good to soft ground and faster, with slower ground on soft and slower.

Constitution Hill

Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Hurdles form: 111/1111-

After connections flirted with the idea of going chasing, Constitution Hill’s focus is now lasered in on becoming the fifth multiple winner of the Champion Hurdle this century, and I’m sure Nicky Henderson and Michael Buckley have hopes of eclipsing Istabraq’s all-time hurdle rating of 176 (Constitution Hill is currently 175).

He will probably have an even easier time of things through the winter than last season. With Epatante retiring it is difficult to see what emerges from Britain as viable oppostion for the six-year-old and I’d be surprised if any of the Irish big guns fancy taking him on before Cheltenham.

Providing there are no mishaps, he should get to Cheltenham unbeaten and I expect another thoroughly commanding performance at the festival. The Willie Mullins brigade are high class so a Champion Hurdle win by a double-digit margin would probably see him surpass Istabraq to be named the greatest 2m hurdler of all time.

State Man

Trainer: Willie Mullins
Hurdles form: 2/F11/111121-

Who knows what we’d be labelling State Man if Constitution Hill wasn’t around.

A prolific winner since joining Willie Mullins, the six-year-old built on his impressive novice campaign and stepped into open company seamlessly, winning three Grade 1s on the spin and beating dual Champion Hurdle winner Honeysuckle by four and half lengths in the Irish Champion Hurdle.

He proved no match for Constitution Hill at Cheltenham but proved he is clear of the rest when thumping Vauban at Punchestown.

State Man: no match for Constitution Hill in last season's Champion HurdleCredit: Alan Crowhurst

Given his dominance when taking Constitution Hill out of the equation, it’s surprising to see State Man behind stablemate Impaire Et Passe in the Champion Hurdle market.

However, the Ballymore winner has an enormous amount of improving to do to surpass State Man and surely the 8-1 about last season’s Champion Hurdle runner-up is an each-way steal. He will surely finish in the top three and would be in pole position should anything happen to the favourite.

Impaire Et Passe

Trainer: Willie Mullins
Hurdles form: 1111-

Arguably last season’s most exciting novice hurdler, the news that the five-year-old would stay over hurdles for a potential crack at Constitution Hill raised a few eyebrows.

However, if there is a horse who is capable of beating Constitution Hill then it is probably Impaire Et Passe. simply because we have no idea the limit of his ability.

He was electric in four starts over hurdles for Willie Mullins last season, with his best performance coming when running away with the Ballymore by six and a half lengths. That race looked the strongest of the novice events at the festival before the race and the form is backing that up, as the runner-up Gaelic Warrior won the 3m Grade 1 novice hurdle at Punchestown by ten lengths on his next start.

I suspect he might be campaigned differently to State Man, with Impaire Et Passe’s stamina enabling him to contest some of the 2m4f Grade 1s in Ireland, so the option of stepping up to 3m is not beyond the realms should connections swerve a Constitution Hill clash.

Vauban

Trainer: Willie Mullins
Hurdles form: 211/12342-

A top-class juvenile hurdler in the 2021-22 season, Vauban found the likes of State Man and Constitution Hill too good in open company last year.

However, it is worth remembering Vauban is still only a five-year-old and he has looked a different animal on the Flat this summer with a tilt at the Melbourne Cup on the cards.

It wouldn’t be a surprise if connections decided to stick to the Flat given how talented he is, but if he does go hurdling this season, expect him to have an easy time of things throughout the early part of the campaign, before returning in time for the big spring festivals.

His recent performances make him an intriguing proposition back over jumps. On one hand he has tonnes to find with Constitution Hill and State Man, but he is still very young and there’s a good chance he isimproving.

If he is improving as much as he has on the Flat (up from a mark of 101 to 114) then he might just be the one to give Constitution Hill a race.

Lossiemouth

Trainer: Willie Mullins
Hurdles form: 11211-

Bar a blip at the Dublin Racing Festival where things didn’t fall her way, last season’s outstanding juvenile hurdler Lossiemouth barely put a foot wrong.

The Rich Ricci-owned filly bolted up in the Triumph Hurdle, a performance made even more impressive by the fact she was forced to go to the front a long way from home given how strongly she was travelling.

Lossiemouth: talented juvenile hurdler last seasonCredit: Michael Steele

Despite that, she powered clear of her rivals after jumping the last in the manner of a top-class filly. Whether she has the class to mix it with the best 2m hurdlers is another question.Juveniles often struggle when pitched into open company and the fact that she’s a mare means her season will revolve around the Mares’ Hurdle rather than the Champion Hurdle.

However, the juvenile form was given a boost when Zarak The Brave, twice behind Lossiemouth last season, won the Galway Hurdle and Lossiemouth was leaps ahead of her rivals in that sphere.

Love Envoi

Trainer: Harry Fry
Hurdles form: 111112/1126-

It might surprise a few that Love Envoi has made the cut in the top eight pullout horses for this division, but it just goes to show the lack of depth behind Constitution Hill and the Willie Mullins brigade.

However, she is also deserving of her place after a really solid season where she produced a couple of really telling performances before giving Honeysuckle a real fright in a top-class running of the Mares’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

Such was her form that day, I dare say she might well have finished in the top three of the Champion Hurdle.Her run on good to yielding ground at Punchestown is easily forgotten as it was far too bad to be true.

Someone has got to take on Constitution Hill in Britain and, given her favoured slow ground, she might just be the one to try to serve it up to the champion early in the season, but another crack at the Mares’ Hurdle will surely be her big aim, and there will be no Honeysuckle in that this time around.

Echoes In Rain

Trainer: Willie Mullins
Hurdles form: 111520/16165-

A cut below even her stablemates at this level, never mind Constitution Hill, but Echoes In Rain is a talented mare nonetheless, winning two Grade 1s, including when taking the Mares Champion Hurdle at Punchestown by nine and a half lengths in the spring.

That impressive performance earned her an RPR of 158 and once you add the mares’ allowance she will receive if taking on the boys, she isn’t too far behind her rivals, Constitution Hill excluded.

She was sent off just 7-4 for the Morgiana Hurdle in 2021 – she finished fourth to Sharjah – and she could follow a similar path this time around.

Willie Mullins has plenty of ammunition in this division so it would be surprising to see her go off 7-4 this time around but she will be going there off the back of a career-best run over hurdles and fit after a summer on the Flat.

Her big target will be the Mares’ Hurdle and trying to improve on her fourth last season. With no Honeysuckle in the race, that is entirely plausible.

Zarak The Brave

Trainer: Willie Mullins
Hurdles form: 122-31P-

A winner of the Galway Hurdle in the summer, a season mopping up Grade 2s and 3s looked on the cards for Zarak The Brave. However, he ran a stinker when pulled up as a 1-8 favourite in a Grade 3 last time and he will need to put that behind him.

Given that that was clearly not his true running it is easy to forgive should he come back from it fine, and he did look an improver before that.

He was soundly beaten by Lossiemouth on two occasions last season so would need to improve to even just pass her, but it was a huge performance to win a Galway Hurdle as a four-year-old and what I liked was how he fought off the opposition in a tight finish.

His Galway Hurdle win means he starts the season off a mark of 152 which will make life difficult for him in handicaps, and you’d have to expect the British handicapper will add at least 3lb to that with a viewto any Cheltenham Festival handicaps.

Others to consider

Constitution Hill is so far ahead of the opposition, his biggest danger is probably staying injury-free.

As we’ve seen with Energumene, superstars are no less fragile than any others, and should anything happen to Constitution Hill this division would be blown right open.

Remember the mass reshuffling in the build-up to the 2016 Champion Hurdle when Faugheen was ruled out? Expect something similar to occur should Constitution Hill fail to get there.

Impressive Supreme winner Marine Nationale is set to go chasing this season, but the ease with which he won at the festival suggests he would be a force in this division should connections have a change of plan.

Facile Vega is another set to go chasing but would have the class and potential to feature in a Constitution Hill-less 2m hurdle division. However, given how strong Willie Mullins’ 2m hurdling hand already is, it would be surprising to see him switch.

Luccia is a horse I have plenty of time for. She looked excellent in her first two hurdle starts before finishing fourth and third at the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals. She could prove better than those performances and, while she’d have to improve at least 20lb to be in the mix even without Constitution Hill, she has a similar profile to Epatante, who was also beaten in the Mares’ Novice Hurdle at the festival and she could pick up her fair share of races.

State Man emerged from the County Hurdle a couple of seasons ago and perhaps Pied Piper could be one to improve. He was beaten a head off a mark of 154 in the festival handicap, clocking an RPR of 161, which puts him right in the mix of the best of the rest of these. Like Vauban, he’s only a five-year-old so could still have improvement in him.

Il Etait Temps is another Mullins-trained five-year-old and he won a Grade 1 novice hurdle last season. He looks a cut below some of those from his stable, but he could win his fair share of Grade 2s and 3s this season.

Pricewise verdict: Tom Segal

Constitution Hill was miles better than all the other two-mile hurdlers last season and could be as good as any 2m hurdler in history.

However, he wasn’t as convincing in the Aintree Hurdle on his final start over two and a half miles and that is what probably prompted connections to stay over hurdles rather than go down the staying chase route.

He stands like a colossus over the division but Willie Mullins knows where he stands with him and it’s interesting that there was no hesitation in keeping the Ballymore winner Impaire Et Passe over the smaller obstacles.

Whether he can beat Constitution Hill is doubtful, but he might well get closer than any other horse has been able to.

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