Does the new Derby favourite warrant his position? Three things we learned this week

Three key takeaways from across the week . . .

Is the new Derby favourite value?

You Got To Me’s Irish Oaks heroics and Tower Of London’s remarkable victory from a seemingly impossible position naturally hogged the headlines on Saturday, and so it went slightly under the radar that we have a new favourite for the 2025 Derby.

The Lion In Winter arrived for his debut at the Curragh as Ballydoyle’s second string but, despite it being only in a 7f maiden, left it as the market leader for Epsom next year after an authoritative victory under Wayne Lordan.

As a son of Sea The Stars with a dam placed at Group level over a mile and a half, he certainly has the pedigree of a Classic winner and bookmakers have taken no chances, with Coral reporting continued support for The Lion In Winter through Sunday, meaning he tops the market at 16-1.

The Lion In Winter: a general 16-1 shot for next year's Derby after a victorious debut at the CurraghCredit: Patrick McCann

However, that looks short enough at this very early stage, especially when you consider nearest rival Ancient Truth has three wins, including a Group 2, on his CV.

His Superlative win came against a weaker field than expected after the late withdrawals of Coolmore's The Parthenon and Chesham runner-up Pentle Bay, but Ancient Truth had been a strong favourite ahead of that pair earlier in the week anyway.

The Group 2 Futurity back at the Curragh next month – won by future Classic winners Gleneagles, Churchill, Anthony Van Dyck and Mac Swiney in the last decade – was mentioned by Aidan O'Brien as The Lion In Winter's next target, but it is hard to see the value in taking 16-1 before that test.
Sam Hendry

Lee facing a big Sprint Cup dilemma

Two potential rides in a Group 1 are better than none, but Clifford Lee is going to face a big dilemma in the lead-up to the first Saturday in September.

Only last weekend Swingalong ran a huge race in the July Cup at Newmarket, being denied late on when a neck second to Mill Stream.

Karl Burke immediately pinpointed the Betfair Sprint Cup as her target at Haydock on September 7, a race in which she finished fourth last year, and she is clearly an improved sprinter this campaign.

Elite Status: unbeaten this seasonCredit: Edward Whitaker

There is, however, now another highly progressive sprinter for Lee to choose from.

Elite Status backed up his Carnarvon win – form that has been franked – with another Newbury success in the Hackwood on Saturday.

The second, third and fourth were Commonwealth Cup runner-up Lake Forest and fourth Kind Of Blue and last year’s Sprint Cup winner and King Charles III second Regional, giving the race a solid look, and Elite Status very much deserves a return to top-level company.

The betting suggests 8-1 shot Elite Status has the better chance, but there is little to split them with Swingalong priced at 10-1. It is very much one for Lee to mull over.
Jack Haynes

Brits continue to flourish in Ireland

Poet Master's victory for Karl Burke in the Group 2 Minstrel Stakes on Sunday put the final flourish on a superb weekend for British raiders at the Curragh – a theme which has been evident all season and shows no sign of stopping.

Of the six Group 1s held in Ireland this year, British-trained runners have claimed four of them, while sprinters Mitbaahy and Believing have gone across to land the two open-age Group 2 sprints.

The strength in depth around the top of British Flat racing is looking particularly healthy as, for only the second time in the last decade, the first eight Classics across Britain and Ireland have had a majority of British winners (five-three, the same outcome as 2022). For good measure, those victories have been spread around five different trainers.

With the Dermot Weld-trained Oaks winner Ezeliya now retired, the Irish defence outside of Aidan O'Brien is looking weak, and it will be no surprise to see more British trainers taking aim over the next few months.
Sam Hendry

Read these next:

Curragh debut winner with 'plenty of class' according to trainer Aidan O'Brien backed into favourite for 2025 Derby 

'He has a huge stride on him' - Betfair Sprint Cup aim for exciting Hackwood winner Elite Status 

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